Chińska inicjatywa pasa i szlaku a ryzyko zadłużenia jej beneficjentów

• Authors: Tomaszewska Paula

Title variants

EN

China's Belt and Road Initiative and the Risk of Indebtedness among Its Beneficiaries

RU

Китайская инициатива «один пояс – один путь» и риски наращивания долга еѐ бенефициаров

• Languages of publication: PL

Abstracts

PL

Chińska inicjatywa Pasa i Szlaku (Belt and Road Initiative – BRI) jest nie tylko projektem gospodarczym czy politycznym, lecz także mającym potencjał do transformacji systemu międzynarodowego. Wpływ inicjatywy jest duży – od stymulowania finansowania inwestycji infrastrukturalnych w różnych państwach na świecie, po rozwój nowych globalnych łańcuchów dostaw. Celem naukowym artykułu jest analiza konsekwencji wdrażania inicjatywy Pasa i Szlaku. Problem badawczy sprowadza się do pytania: czy ta inicjatywa przyczynia się do zwiększenia chińskich wpływów na świecie i niesie za sobą ryzyko wpędzania biedniejszych państw w „pułapkę zadłużenia‖ poprzez projekty realizowane w nietransparentny sposób? Wnioskiem płynącym z artykułu jest stwierdzenie, że Chiny powinny stworzyć ulepszoną wersję inicjatywy BRI opartą o lepszą ocenę ryzyka realizowanych projektów. Jeśli inwestycje nie zostaną starannie wdrożone i kontrolowane mogą doprowadzić do problematycznego w skutkach wzrostu zadłużenia niektórych państw w dalszej perspektywie czasu.

EN

Chinese Belt and Road initiative (BRI) is not only an economic or political project, but also has the potential to transform the international system. The initiative‘s impact is large – from stimulating the financing of infrastructure investments in various countries around the world to the development of new global supply chains. The scientific goal of the article is to analyze the consequences of implementing the initiative. The research problem is included in the following question: does the Belt and Road Initiative contribute to increasing Chinese influence in the world and carries the risk of driving poorer countries into the ―debt trap‖? The conclusion from the article is that China should create an improved version of the BRI initiative based on a better risk assessment of the current projects. Infrastructure investments, if not carefully implemented and controlled, may lead to consequences, such as increasing the debt of some countries in the long term.

Keywords

PL

Inicjatywa Pasa i Szlaku; Chiny; pułapka zadłużenia; infrastruktura

EN

Belt and Road Initiative; China; debt trap; infrastructure

• Publisher: Instytut Nauk Społecznych i Bezpieczeństwa Uniwersytetu Przyrodniczo-Humanistycznego w Siedlcach
• Journal: De Securitate et Defensione. O Bezpieczeństwie i Obronności
• Year: 2019
• Issue: 2(5)
• Pages: 149-165

Dates

published

2020-01-28

Contributors

author

Tomaszewska Paula

• Uniwersytet im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu

References

• About New Development Bank. W https://www.ndb.int/about-us/.
• Aneez Shihar. 2017. China's 'Silk Road' push stirs resentment and protest in Sri Lanka. W https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sri-lanka-china-insight/chinas-silk-road-push-stirs-resentment-and-protest-in-sri-lanka-idUSKBN15G5UT.
• Brańka Tomasz. 2018. Polarny Jedwabny Szlak-chińska wizja Arktyki. W Księga jubileuszowa dedykowana Profesorowi Zdzisławowi W. Puśleckiemu. Poznań: Wydawnictwo Wydawnictwo Naukowe WNPiD UAM, 111-123.
• Brautigam Deborah. 2019. Is China the World‘s Loan Shark? W https://www.nytimes.com/ 2019/04/26/opinion/china-belt-road-initiative.html.
• BRI is not debt a trap, says finance minister. W https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/ 04/article/bri-is-not-debt-trap-says-finance-minister-liu-kun/.
• BRICS New Development Bank on Course to Lend US$40 Billion in Green Infrastructure Projects. W https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2019/03/08/brics-new-develop ment-bank-course-lend-40-billion-green-infrastructure-projects/.
• Brona Adrian. 2017. Chiny proponują rozszerzenie inicjatywy Pasa i Szlaku. W http://pulsazji.pl/2017/06/30/rozszerzenie-inicjatywy-pasa-i-szlaku/.
• Campbell Charlie. 2017. China Says It's Building the New Silk Road. Here Are Five Things to Know Ahead of a Key Summit. W http://time.com/4776845/china-xi-jinping-belt-road-initiative-obor/.
• China proposes 'blue economic passages' for maritime. W http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ business/2017-06/21/content_29825517.htm.
• China says Maldives is not 'mired in a Chinese debt trap. W https://www.channelnew sasia.com/news/asia/china-says-maldives-is-not--mired-in-a-chinese-debt-trap--11929910.
• China‘s Arctic Policy. W http://english.gov.cn/archive/white_paper/2018/01/26/ content_ 281476026660336.htm.
• China‘s Exim Bank provides more than $149 bln for Belt and Road projects. W https://www.reuters.com/article/china-bank-beltandroad/chinas-eximbank-provides-more-than-149-bln-for-belt-and-road-projects-idUSL3N2202TI.
• China‘s rising influence in Maldives cause for concern. W https://www.nationthailand.com/ opinion/30339628.
• Chipman John. 2019. China‘s long and winding Digital Silk Road. W https://www.iiss.org/ blogs/analysis/2019/01/china-digital-silk-road.
• Downs Erica, Becker Jeff. 2017. China's Presence in Djibouti is Not a National Security Threat—Yet. W https://nationalinterest.org/feature/chinas-presence-djibouti-not-national-security-threat%E2%80%94yet-22498.
• Fleming Sam. 2016. AIIB and World Bank to work on joint projects. W https://www.ft.com/ content/3995f790-01b0-11e6-ac98-3c15a1aa2e62.
• Full text of President Xi's speech at opening of Belt and Road forum. W http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-05/14/c_136282982.htm.
• Full text of the Vision for Maritime Cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative. W http://english.gov.cn/archive/publications/2017/06/20/content_281475691873460.htm.
• García-Herrero Alicia. 2019. Has the Belt and Road Initiative Become a Political Liability for China? W https://www.brinknews.com/has-the-belt-and-road-initiative-become-a-political-liability-for-china/.
• Gerstel Dylan. 2018. It‘s a (Debt) Trap! Managing China-IMF Cooperation Across the Belt and Road. W https://www.csis.org/npfp/its-debt-trap-managing-china-imf-cooperation-across-belt-and-road.
• Góralczyk Bogdan. 2018. Wielki renesans. Chińska transformacja i jej konsekwencje. Warszawa: Dialog.
• Grieger Gisela. 2018. China's Arctic policy. How China aligns rights and interests. W http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2018/620231/EPRS_BRI(2018)620231_EN.pdf.
• Herrero Alicia Garcia, Xu Jianwei. 2019. Countries‘ Perceptions of China‘s Belt and Road Initiative: a Big Data Analysis. W http://bruegel.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/WP-2019-01final.pdf.
• Hurley John, Morris Scott, Portelance Gailyn. 2018. Examining the Debt Implications of the Belt and Road Initiative from a Policy Perspective. W https://www.cgdev.org/ publication/examining-debt-implications-belt-and-roadinitiative-policy-perspective.
• Kaczmarski Marcin. 2015. Nowy Jedwabny Szlak: uniwersalne narzędzie chińskiej polityki. W https://www.osw.waw.pl/pl/publikacje/komentarze-osw/2015-02-10/nowy-jedwabny-szlak-uniwersalne-narzedzie-chinskiej-polityki.
• Kalwasiński Maciej. 2018. „Pas i Szlak‖ – chińska pułapka kredytowa? W https://www.bankier.pl/wiadomosc/Pas-i-Szlak-chinska-pulapka-kredytowa-Analiza-7576219.html.
• Kelkar Keshav. 2018. China is building a new Silk Road, and this one is digital. W https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/43102-from-silk-threads-to-fiber-optics-the-rise-of-chinas-digital-silk-road/.
• Kratz Agatha, Feng Allen, Wright Logan. 2019. New Data on the ―Debt Trap‖ Question. W https://rhg.com/research/new-data-on-the-debt-trap-question/.
• Lagarde Christine. 2019. BRI 2.0: Stronger Frameworks in the New Phase of Belt and Road. W https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2019/04/25/sp042619-stronger-frameworks-in-the-new-phase-of-belt-and-road.
• Lu Hui, Rohr Charlene, Hafner Marco, Knack Anna. China Belt and Road Initiative. W https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR2600/RR2625/RAND_RR2625.pdf.
• Maldives is estimated to have a debt of USD 3 billion to China, Corporate Maledives, https://corporatemaldives.com/maldives-is-estimated-to-have-a-debt-of-usd-3-billion-to-china/.
• Medeiros Evan. 2009. China‘s International Behavior. Activism, Opportunism, and Diversification. W https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2009/ RAND _ MG850.pdf.
• Nakano Jane. 2018. China Launches the Polar Silk Road. W https://www.csis.org/ analysis/china-launches-polar-silk-road.
• Oleszko-Pyka Bartosz. 2018. Stan wyjątkowy na Malediwach czyli wielka polityka Indii, Chin oraz USA. W http://pulsazji.pl/2018/03/05/stan-wyjatkowy-malediwach-czyli-wielka-polityka-indii-chin-oraz-usa/.
• Presentation about Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. W https://www.aiib.org/en/ treasury/_common/_download/IP-Red-August_2019.pdf.
• Projects. W https://www.ndb.int/projects/list-of-all-projects/.
• Puślecki Zdzisław W. 2019. Unia Europejska – Chiny. Poznań: Wydawnictwo Poznańskie.
• Research for TRAN Committee: The new Silk Route - opportunities and challenges for EU transport. W http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2018/585907/ IPOL_STU (2018)585907_EN.pdf.
• Resolution of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China on the Revised Constitution of the Communist Party of China. W http://www.xinhuanet.com/ english/2017-10/24/c_136702726.htm.
• Romann Alfred. 2019. Who will benefit from China‘s Belt and Road Initiative? W https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/04/benefit-china-belt-road-initiative-190427131051786.html.
• Smith Craig. 2019. A Digital Silk Road. W http://www.theworldin.com/article/14433/ edition2018digital-silk-roadhttps://worldin2019.economist.com/Chinaseconomy.
• Staff Report for the 2016 Article IV Consultation – Debt Sustainability Analysis. W https://www.imf.org/~/media/Files/Publications/CR/2017/cr1739.ashx.
• Tomaszewska Paula, Tomaszewska Sara, Raport: Finansowanie i inwestycje. W https://drive.google.com/file/d/1uWTYVSb7MVjB9TDYObCBWdfXCS1C_wxu/view.
• Turkey stays away from China‘s Belt and Road summit citing debt-trap diplomacy and Uighur concerns. W https://intellinews.com/turkey-stays-away-from-china-s-belt-and-road-summit-citing-debt-trap-diplomacy-and-uighur-concerns-160249/.
• Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road, National Development and Reform Commission. W http://en.ndrc.gov.cn/ newsrelease/201503/t20150330_669367.html.
• Wübbeke Jost, Meissner Mirjam, Zenglein Max, Ives Jaqueline, Conrad Björn. 2016. Made in China 2025. The making of a high-tech superpower and consequences for industrial countries. W https://www.merics.org/sites/default/files/2018-07/MPOC_No.2_Madein China2025_ web.pdf.
• Xie Tao. 2015. Is China's 'Belt and Road' a Strategy? W https://thediplomat.com/2015/12/is-chinas-belt-and-road-a-strategy/.
• Yao Kevin. 2018. China Development Bank provides over $190 billion for Belt and Road projects. W https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-finance-cdb-bri/china-develop ment-bank-provides-over-190-billion-for-belt-and-road-projects-idUSKCN1R8095.

Identifiers

ISSN

2450-5005

DOI

10.34739/dsd.2019.02.09