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2018 | 4 | 58-72

Article title

Produkcja rolna w Polsce a eksport rolno-spożywczy



Title variants

Agricultural production in Poland and agri-food exports

Languages of publication



Opracowanie ma na celu identyfikację dynamicznej przyczynowości zachodzącej pomiędzy wielkością produkcji rolnej w Polsce a eksportem towarów rolno-spożywczych. Identyfikacja wielkości i kierunku wpływu wskazanych zmiennych może posłużyć do kształtowania polityki gospodarczej. Badanie obejmuje lata 1991—2013 i opiera się na danych FAO; zastosowano w nim metodologię VAR (wektorowej autoregresji). Dokonano m.in. analizy funkcji odpowiedzi na impuls oraz dekompozycji wariancji błędów prognoz zmiennych modelu VAR. Wyniki badania wskazują, z jednej strony, że produkcja rolna w Polsce jest kształtowana zarówno przez opóźnienia własne, jak i opóźnienia eksportu. Z drugiej strony, eksport rolno-spożywczy pozostaje głównie pod wpływem własnej tendencji rozwojowej. Oznacza to, że w modelu VAR eksport należy postrzegać jako czynnik priorytetowy („bardziej egzogeniczny”).
he research is aiming at the identification of the dynamic causality between agricultural production in Poland and exports of agri-food goods. Identification of the magnitude and direction of these variables may be used for economic policy forming. The study covers the period of 1991—2013 and is based on the data from the FAO; the research employs the vector autoregression methodology (VAR). The study comprises, among others, the analysis of the impulse response function and variance decomposition of forecasts’ errors of VAR model variables. The results of the research show that agricultural production in Poland is shaped by both own and exports delays. On the other hand, agri-food exports are mainly influenced by their own development trends. This means that, in the VAR model, exports should be seen as a priority ('more exogenous').






Physical description




  • Uniwersytet Rolniczy w Krakowie


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