Full-text resources of CEJSH and other databases are now available in the new Library of Science.
Visit https://bibliotekanauki.pl

PL EN


2009 | 10 | 1 | 5-19

Article title

LONG-TERM MACROECONOMETRIC MODEL FOR THE POLISH ECONOMY

Content

Title variants

Languages of publication

EN

Abstracts

EN
Development of market economies towards economies based on knowledge implies the construction of new long-term macroeconometric models. The structure and use of the long-term W8D model for Poland was shown. This is a complete model that explains production and the factors its growth including R&D and human capital and also final demand allowing for studies of potential disequilibria. It is closed by equations explaining prices, wages and financial flows. The simulation version is includes 235 equations, of which 111 are stochastic. It is used in long-term growth scenarios up to the year 2030.

Contributors

  • Katedra Modeli i Prognoz Ekonometrycznych, Uniwersytet Łódzki

References

  • Aghion Ph., Howitt P. (1999) Endogenous Growth Theory, MIT Press, Cambridge MA. London.
  • Barro R.J., Sala-i-Martin X. (1995) Economic Growth, McGraw-Hill Inc., New York.
  • Bärdsen G., Eitriheim O., Jansen E.S., Nymeoen R. (2005) The Econometrics of Macroeconometric Modelling, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
  • Bayoumi T., Coe D.T., Helpman E. (1999) R&D Spillovers and Global Growth, „Journal of International Economics” vol. 47, pp. 399–428.
  • Benabou R. (2002) Human Capital. Technical Change and the Welfare State, „Temi di discussione del Servizio Studi”, vol. 465, Banca d'Italia, Roma.
  • Cincera M., Pottelsberghe de la Potterie van B. (2001) International R&D Spillovers, A Survey, „Cahiers Economiques de Bruxelles”, vol. 169, no. I, pp. 1–20.
  • Coe D.T., Helpman E. (1995) International R&D Spillovers, „European Economic Review”, vol. 39, pp. 859–887.
  • Colecchia A., Schreyer P. (2002) ICT Investment and Economic Growth in the 1990s'. Is the United States a Unique Case? A Comparative Study of Nine OECD Countries, „Review of Economic Dynamics”, vol. 3, pp. 408–442.
  • Cornwall J., Cornwall W. (2002) A Demand and Supply Analysis of Productivity Growth, „Structural Change and Economic Dynamics”, vol. 13, pp. 203–229.
  • Engelbrecht H.J. (1997) International Spillovers. Human Capital and Productivity in OECD Economies. An Empirical Investigation, „European Economic Review”, vol. 41, pp. 1479–1488.
  • Fuente de la, A. (2004) Human Capital and Growth: Some Results for the OECD. Current Issues of Economic Growth, „Proceedings of OeNB Workshops”, no. 2, Vienna.
  • Garratt A., Lee K., Pesaran M.H., Shin Y. (2006) Global and National Macroeconometric Modeling: A Long-Run Structural Approach, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
  • Grossman G.M., Helpman E. (1991) Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy, MIT Press, Cambridge
  • Grzęda-Latocha R. (2005) Ekonometryczna analiza koniunktury gospodarczej w krajach strefy Euro (Econometric Analysis of Business Cycles in Euro-area) „Ekonomista”, nr 5, pp.621-640.*Helpman E. (2004) The Mistery of Economic Growth, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MASS
  • Jorgenson D.W. (2000) Information Technology and the US Economy, „American Economic Review”, vol. 91. pp. 1–32
  • Jorgenson D.W., Ho M.S., Strip K.J. (2002) Projecting Productivity Growth. Lessons from the Resurgence, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, „Economic Review”, vol. 87, pp. 1–14
  • Jorgenson D.W., Ho M.S., Stiroh K.J. (2003) Lessons for Europe from the U.S. Growth Resurgence, „CES IFO Economic Studies”, vol. 49, pp. 27–47
  • Klein L.R., Welfe A., Welfe W. (1999) Principles of Macroeconometric Modelling, North Holland, Amsterdam
  • Lee G. (2005) Direct versus Indirect International R&D Spillovers, „Information Economics and Policy”, vol. 17. pp. 334–348
  • Leeuwen G. van, Wiel H. van der (2003) Spillovers Effects of ICT, „CBP Report”, nr 3, pp. 24–40
  • Lichtenberg F.R., Van Pottelsberghe de la Potterie B. (1998) International R&D Spillovers: A Comment; „European Economic Review”, vol.42, pp. 1483–1491
  • Nahuis R. (2003) Knowledge. Inequality and Growth in the New Economy, E. Elgar, Cheltenham UK
  • Richards G.R. (2000) Endogenaus Technological Advance in Econometric Model; Implications for Productivity and Potential Output in the United States “Economic Modelling”, vol. 17 pp. 13–34
  • Smith K. (2002) What is the 'Knowledge Economy'. Knowledge Intensity and Distributed Knowledge Bases. “Discussion Paper”, series 2002–6, The UN University, INTECH, Maastricht
  • Solow R., (1957) Technical Change and Aggregate Production Function. „Review of Economics and Statistics”, vol. 39, pp. 312–320
  • Tokarski T. (2001) Modele wzrostu endogenicznego (Models of endogenous growth), in: W. Welfe (ed.), Ekonometryczny model wzrostu gospodarczego, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego. Łódź
  • Tokarski T. (2007) Podażowe determinanty wzrostu gospodarczego (Supply Determinants of Economic Growth), in: W. Welfe (ed). Gospodarka oparta na wiedzy, PWE, Warszawa
  • Welfe W. (1992) Ekonometryczne modele gospodarki narodowej Polski, (Econometric Models of the Polish Economy), PWE, Warszawa
  • Welfe W., 2000, Empiryczne modele wzrostu gospodarczego, (Empirical Models of Economic Growth), „Ekonomista”, no. 4, pp. 483–499
  • Welfe W. (ed.) (2001) Ekonometryczny model wzrostu gospodarczego, (Econometric Model of Economic Growth), Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego, Łódź.
  • Welfe W. (2002) Łączna produktywność czynników produkcji a postęp techniczny, (TFP and Technological Progress), „Studia Ekonomiczne”, vol. 36–37, pp. 94–115
  • Welfe W., Florczak W., Sabanty L. (2002) Kapitał ludzki i jego endogenizacja (Human Capital and its Endogenization), „Przegląd Statystyczny”, vol. 50, nr 2, pp. 7–36
  • Welfe W., Welfe A. (2004) Ekonometria stosowana, (Applied Econometrics), II edition, PWE, Warsaw*Welfe W. (ed.) (2004) Długookresowy, makroekonometryczny model W8D-2002 gospodarki polskiej, (Long-term Macroeconometric Model of the Polish Economy W8D-2002), „Acta UŁ, Folia Oeconomica"", vol. 172, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego, Łódź
  • Welfe W. (2005) Stylized Empirical Model of Economic Growth, in: W. Welfe, A. Welfe (eds.), Macromodels 2004, „Acta UŁ, Folia Oeconomica” vol. 190, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego, Łódź, pp. 109–125
  • Welfe W. (2007) Knowledge Capital and Total Factor Productivity, “Argumenta Oeconomica” vol. 19 (1–2), pp. 211–235
  • Welfe W. (ed.) (2007) Gospodarka oparta na wiedzy, (Knowledge-based economy), PWE, Warszawa
  • Welfe W. (2008a) Knowledge Based Economy. New Directions of Macromodelling, “International Advances in Economic Research”, vol. 143, pp. 167–180
  • Welfe W. (2008b) The Structure of a New Long-Term Macroeconometric Model for Poland, „Przegląd Statystyczny”, vol. 55, pp. 5–23
  • Welfe W. (ed.) (2009a) Makroekonometryczny model gospodarki opartej na wiedzy, (Macroeconometric Model of Knowledge based Economy, Acta UŁ, Folia Oeconomica, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego, Łódź
  • Welfe W. (ed.) (2009b) Prognozy i scenariusze długookresowego rozwoju gospodarczego Polski (Forecasts and Scenarios of Long-term Development of Polish Economy), Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego, Łódź
  • Xu B., Wang, J. (1999) Capital Goods Trade and R&D Spillovers in OECD, „Canadian Journal of Economics”, vol. 32, p.1258–1274
  • Zienkowski L. (ed.) (2003) Wiedza a wzrost gospodarczy, (Knowledge and Economic Growth), Wydawnictwo Naukowe SCHOLAR, Warszawa

Document Type

Publication order reference

Identifiers

YADDA identifier

bwmeta1.element.desklight-938a73b2-ca9f-4ad6-8e68-6b8121630681
JavaScript is turned off in your web browser. Turn it on to take full advantage of this site, then refresh the page.