PL EN


2011 | 876 | 71-83
Article title

Prognozowanie liczby pacjentów poradni ortopedycznej

Authors
Title variants
EN
REDICTING THE NUMBER OF ORTHOPEDIC CLINIC PATIENTS
Languages of publication
PL
Abstracts
EN
The paper analyses a time series of the daily number of patients visiting an orthopedics clinic. A learning set was chosen to ensure the homogeneity of series variance and three forecasting models were built. The regression model consists of the linear trend, dummy variables describing weekly and yearly seasonal components and the auto-regression of the residuals. ARIMA, with non-seasonal and seasonal differencing, contains only the components of the first order moving average. The exponential smoothing model covers the linear trend and weekly harmonic component. The residuals from all three models very closely follow normal distribution. Forecasts have been compared with actual data for a monthly test period and all models allow us to forecast the number of patients, with a mean square error of 9 people. Exponential smoothing appears to have the lowest MAPE for the test period.
Contributors
References
Document Type
Publication order reference
Identifiers
YADDA identifier
bwmeta1.element.desklight-976b758c-137c-4199-ba96-26ab38433856
JavaScript is turned off in your web browser. Turn it on to take full advantage of this site, then refresh the page.