PL EN


Journal
2013 | 1(39) | 30-39
Article title

Forecasting risk of decision – making processes

Authors
Content
Title variants
Languages of publication
EN
Abstracts
EN
What is the risk of decision-making processes, what causes it? Most typically, definitions of risk are ex post – they are looking at risk as a difference between expectations of results of actions taken and the actual performance. This is a considerable inconvenience, especially in cases when processes are of a long-term nature. Thus, is it possible to measure risk in the course of the decision-making processes? How can this be done and in what conditions can risk measures be extrapolated? An analysis of the definitions of risk shows that the one which is the most useful for solving the problem undertaken in the present study, is given by K. and T. Jajuga, “…the term of risk will refer to a decision, or, to be more precise, to an action taken as a result. One may therefore speak of taking risky decisions”. The authors make it clear that a risky decision is uncertainty as to “…the possibility for people to control the factors that determine the reality”. This suggestion, if accepted, enables one to construct a risk model as a random vector whose components are control variables of the decisionmaking processes taking place. In consequence, this makes it possible to estimate statistic measures of risk. Risk measures indicating the level of risk at moment t of decision-making processes represent a foundation of the problem announced by the title of the present study. Although they are merely a set of risk estimations, i.e. an assessment of its state, they nevertheless provide an opportunity to forecast risk levels within the period in which the processes occur, thus providing valuable information for decisions-makers.
Journal
Year
Issue
Pages
30-39
Physical description
Dates
published
2013
Contributors
author
  • Uniwersytet Gdański
References
  • Arrow K.J., Esej z teorii ryzyka, PWN, Warszawa 1979.
  • Dobbins R., Frąckowiak W., Witt S.F., Praktyczne zarządzanie kapitałami firmy, PAANPOL, Poznań 1992.
  • Donaldson G., Lorsch J.W., Decision Making at the Top: The Shaping of Strategic Direction, Basic Books, New York 1983.
  • Efektywność przedsięwzięć rozwojowych. Metody – analiza – przykłady, R. Borowiecki (ed.), Akademia Ekonomiczna w Krakowie, Towarzystwo Naukowe Organizacji i Kierownictwa, Warszawa–Kraków 1996.
  • Freeman R.E., Strategic Management, Pitman, Boston 1984.
  • Gołębiewski T., Zarządzanie strategiczne. Planowanie i kontrola, Difin, Warszawa 2001.
  • Grzybowski W., Ryzyko i sukcesy, Uniwersytet Marii Curie-Skłodowskiej, Lublin 1996.
  • Knight F.H., Risk Uncertainty and Profit, University of Boston Press, Boston 1921.
  • Jajuga K., Jajuga T., Inwestycje. Instrumenty finansowe, ryzyko finansowe, inżynieria finansowa, Wy-dawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa 1996.
  • MacMillan I.C., Jones P.E., Strategy Formulation: Power and Politics, West Publishing, St. Paul 1986.
  • Mahalanobis P.C., On the generalised distance in statistics, Proceedings of National Institute of Science of India 2: 49–55, 1936.
  • Jedynak P., Szydło S., Zarządzanie ryzykiem, Ossolineum, Wrocław–Warszawa–Kraków 1997.
  • Obłój K., Strategia organizacji, PWE Warszawa 1999.
  • Prognozowanie gospodarcze. Metody i zastosowania, M. Cieślak (ed.), Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa 1997.
  • Willett A.H., The Economic Theory of Risk and Insurance, University of Pennsylvania Press, Philadephia 1951.
  • Zemke J., Ryzyka zarządzania organizacją gospodarczą, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Gdańskiego, Gdańsk 2009.
Document Type
Publication order reference
Identifiers
YADDA identifier
bwmeta1.element.desklight-b05d5a00-8ce7-4748-b6ae-f6043b40c803
JavaScript is turned off in your web browser. Turn it on to take full advantage of this site, then refresh the page.