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2013 | 3/2 | 143-150

Article title

Niepewność w diagnozach i prognozach formułowanych w badaniach koniunktury konsumenckiej w Polsce


Title variants

Uncertainty in the diagnoses and forecasts formulated in consumer confi dence surveys in Poland

Languages of publication



The paper analyzes changes in the level of uncertainty among households that can be observed in their assessments and forecasts of both their own fi nancial situation and the economic condition of the country. To achieve this aim, data from consumer confi dence surveys conducted during the years 1992-2013 was utilized. Over time, as respondents adapted to the new market conditions, they showed less and less uncertainty in both the diagnosis and prognosis of the economic situation in the country. The opposite trend was observed where diagnosing their own fi nancial situation was concerned, as well as in formulating forecasts of household finances.






Physical description



  • Białowolski P., Dudek S., Wzorce formułowania ocen i prognoz przez polskie gospodarstwa domowe – fakty i mity, w: Koniunktura gospodarcza – 20 lat doświadczeń Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH, red. E. Adamowicz, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie, Warszawa 2008 Bovi M., Long-run biases in consumer sentiment. Micro evidence from European surveys, OECD Workshop On Business And Consumer Tendency Surveys, Roma 2006, http://www.oecd.org/std/clits/37324774.pdf (dostęp 2.05.2013) Diagnoza społeczna 2011. Warunki i jakość życia Polaków, red. J. Czapiński, T. Panek, Rada Monitoringu Społecznego, Warszawa 2011, http://www.diagnoza.com/pliki/raporty/Diagnoza_raport_2011.pdf (dostęp 2.05.2013) Drozdowicz-Bieć M., Cykle i wskaźniki koniunktury, Wydawnictwo Poltext, Warszawa 2012 Jankiewicz J., Nastroje konsumentów a fl uktuacje koniunkturalne w polskiej gospodarce (w druku) Komisja Europejska, The joint harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys. User guide, DG ECFIN, Brussels, 4 lipca 2007, http://ec.europa.eu/economy_fi nance/db_indicators/surveys/documents/userguide_en.pdf (dostęp 1.08.2012) Souleles N.S., Expectations, heterogeneous forecast errors, and consumption. Micro evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys, “Journal of Money, Credit and Banking” 2004, vol. 36, no. 1

Document Type

Publication order reference


YADDA identifier

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