Ocena ryzyka zagrożenia powodziowego na rzece Nysa Kłodzka z wykorzystaniem wybranych rozkładów prawdopodobieństwa wartości ekstremalnych

• Authors: Kuźmiński Łukasz

Title variants

EN

Assessment of flood risk on the Nysa Klodzka River using selected extreme values distributions

• Languages of publication: PL

Abstracts

EN

The article concerns the application of selected distributions of extreme values to estimate the risk of occurring of flood danger in Lower Silesia. In the study a daily water level on the Nysa Klodzka River was used, that was gathered in the hydrological station in Bystrzyca Klodzka. From the collected data from the period 1981-2013 biannual maximum water level was selected. Two theoretical distributions: Gumbel and Frechet were fitted to the empirical distribution of biannual maximal. The best fitted two distributions were used for the exemplary assessment of flood danger.

Keywords

EN

flood risk; one-yaer maximum; water level; Gumbel distribution; Frechet distribution

• Publisher: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
• Journal: Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
• Year: 2016
• Issue: 1 (51)
• Pages: 48-60

Contributors

author

Kuźmiński Łukasz

References

• Ahmad M., Sinclair C., Spurr B., 1988, Assessment of flood frequency models using empirical distribution function statistics, Water Resources Res., 24, s. 1323-1328.
• Arns A., Wahl T., Haigh I., Jensena J., Pattiaratchi C., 2013, Estimating extreme water level probabilities: A comparison of the direct methods and recommendations for best practice, Coastal Engineering, 81, s. 51-66.
• Beran M., Hoskin J., Arnell N., 1986, Comment on two – component extreme value distribution for flood frequency analysis by Fabio Rossi, Mauro Fiorentino, Pasquale Versace, Water Resources Res., 22, s. 263-266.
• Bordi I., Fraedrich K., Petitta M., Sutera A., 2007, Extreme value analysis of wet and dry periods in Sicily, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 87, s. 61-67.
• Bortkiewicz L., 1922, Variationsbreite und mittlerer Fehler, Sitzungsber Berli. Meth. Ges., 21, s. 3-11.
• Byczkowski A., 1996, Hydrologia, tom I, Wydanictwo SGGW, Warszawa.
• Cauncil T.E., 2007, Directive 2007/60/EC on the assessment and management of flood risks, Journal of the European Union Official, Brussels.
• Chaibandit K., Konyai S., 2012, Using statistics in hydrology for analyzing the discharge of Yom river, APCBEE Procedia, vol. 1, s. 356-362.
• Charon C., 2015, Probability distributions of wind speed in the UAE, Energy Conversion and Management, 93, s. 414-434.
• Chen Y., Shortle J., Gelder P., Sha Z., 2002, Study of parameter estimation methods for Pearson – III distribution in flood frequency analysis, Int. Association of Hydrological Sciences, s. 263-269.
• Dogan A., Haktanir T., Seckin S., Yurtal R., 2010, Comparison of propability weighted moments and maximum likehood methods used in frequency analysis for ceyhan river basin, Arabian Journal for Science & Engineering, vol. 35, Issue 1B, April, s. 49-69.
• Engeland K., Frigessi A., Hisdal H., 2005, Practical extreme value modelling of hydrological floods and droughts: a case study, Extremes, vol. 7, Issues 1, s. 5-30.
• Fuller W., 1914, Floods flows, Trans. Amer. Soc. Civil Engineers, 77, s. 564-583.
• Greis N., Wood E., 1981, Regional flood frequency estimation and network design, Water Resources Res., s. 1167-1177.
• Gumbel E., 1941, The return period of flood flaws, Ann. Math. Statist., 12, s. 163-190.
• Gumbel E., 1944, On the plotting of flood discharges, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 25, s. 699-719.
• Gumbel E., 1945, Floods estimated by probability methods, Engrg. News-Record, 134, s. 97-101.
• Gumbel E., 1949, The statistical forecast of floods, Water Resources Board Bulletin, no. 15, s. 1-21.
• Gumbel E., 1954, Statistical theory of extreme values and some practical applications, National Bureau of Standards, Applied Mathematics Series, vol. 33.
• Hipel K., 1994, Extreme Values: Floods and Droughts, Proceedings of International, Conference on Stochastic and Statistical Methods in Hydrology and Enviromental Engineering, vol. 1, Kluwer, Dordrecht.
• Holicky M., Sykora M., 2010, Assessment of flooding risk to cultural heritage in historic sites, Journal of Perfomance of Constructed Facilities, s. 432-438.
• Jain D., Singh V., 1987, Estimating parameters of EV1 distribution for flood frequency analysis, Water Resources Res., 23, s. 59-71.
• Katz R., Parlange M., Neveau P., 2002, Statistics of extremes in hydrology, Advances in Water Resources, s. 8-12.
• Kundzewicz Z., 2005, Summer floods in central Europe. Climate change track?, Natural Hazards, s. 165--189.
• Kuźmiński Ł., 2013, The applications of the kernel densities to the modeling the generalized Pareto distributions, Ekonometria 3(41), s. 55-64.
• Magiera R., 2002, Modele i metody statystyki matematycznej, Oficyna Wydawnicza GiS, Wrocław.
• Nachabe M., Paynter S., 2011, Use of generalized extreme value covariates to improve estimation of trends and return frequencies for lake levels, Journal of Hydroinformatics, 13.1, s. 13-24.
• Pericchi L., Rodriguez-Iturbe I., 1985, On statistical analysis of floods. W A. F. Atkinson, Celebration Statistics, s. 511-541.
• Rossi F., Fiorentino M., Versace P., 1986, Two – component extreme value distribuition for flood frequency analysis, Water Resources Res, 22, s. 1551-1564.
• Shen H., Bryson M., Ochoa I., 1980, Effect of tail behavior assumptions on flood, Water Resources Re., 16, s. 361-364.
• Smith R., 1987, Estimating the upper tail of flood frequency distributions, Water Resources Res, 23, s. 1657-1666.
• Stovel H., 1998, Risk Preparendness: A Management Manual for World Cultural Heritage, [in:] International Centre for the Study of Preservation and Restoration of Cultural Property, Roma.
• Thomas M., Reiss R., 2007, Statistical Analysis of Extreme Value with Applications to Insurance,
• Finance, Hydrology and Other Fields, Birkhauser, Berlin.
• Todorovic P., 1979, A probabilistic approach to analysis and prediction of floods, Proc. 43rd ISI.
• Yue S., Bobe B., Legendre P. i Bruneau P., 1999, The Gumbel mixed model for flood frequency analysis, J. Hydrol., s. 88-100.