The future of the euro area – Poland’s geo-economic perspective

• Authors: Grosse Tomasz Grzegorz

Title variants

PL

Przyszłość strefy euro – perspektywa geo-ekonomiczna Polski

• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

The articlepresents the discussion about the future of the euro area. The starting point of this analysis is an outline of the main conclusions drawn from the crisis in this area, which began in 2010. Next, the documents regarding future reforms of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), submitted by the European institutions during 2015-2017, will be analysed. Subsequently, the discussion on these proposals among the member states, especially the most influential – France and Germany, is being analysed. The article is aiming at considering the preliminary results of these negotiations and the possible reforms of the euro area. The Author is also wondering whether these reforms can adequately prepare the monetary union for another crisis or even worsening the economic situation in Europe. In this context and in relation to the broader geopolitical situation in 2018, the question is raised whether Poland should mull over joining the EMU. Finally, the geo-economic consequences of entering the EMU or being outside the monetary union will be examined in a situation where the reforms of this area are incomplete and the eurozone seems to be not well prepared for a possible next crisis.

PL

Artykuł prezentuje analizę dyskusji na temat przyszłości strefy euro. Punktem wyjścia analizy jest zarys głównych wniosków wynikających z kryzysu w tej strefie, który rozpoczął się w 2010 r. Następnie zostaną przedstawione dokumenty dotyczące przyszłych reform Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej (UGW), przedłożone przez instytucje europejskie w latach 2015–2017. Następnie analizowana jest dyskusja nad tymi propozycjami wśród państw członkowskich, zwłaszcza tych najbardziej wpływowych – Francji i Niemiec. Celem artykułu jest rozważenie wstępnych wyników tych negocjacji i możliwych do wprowadzenia reform w UGW. Autor zastanawia się również, czy te reformy mogą odpowiednio przygotować unię walutową na kolejny kryzys lub pogorszenie koniunktury gospodarczej w Europie. W tym kontekście i w związku z szerszą sytuacją geopolityczną w 2018 r. zostanie postawione pytanie, czy Polska powinna przystąpić jak najszybciej do UGW. W celu zbadania tej kwestii zostaną przeanalizowane geo-ekonomiczne konsekwencje wejścia do UGW lub pozostawania poza nią w sytuacji, gdy reformy tego obszaru są niekompletne, a strefa euro wydaje się nie być dobrze przygotowana na ewentualny następny kryzys.

Keywords

EN

the Economic and Monetary Union; reforms; geo-economics; Poland

PL

Unia Gospodarcza i Walutowa; reformy; geo-ekonomia; Polska

• Publisher: Wydział Nauk Politycznych i Studiów Międzynarodowych, Uniwersytet Warszawski
• Journal: Przegląd Europejski
• Year: 2018
• Issue: 4(50)
• Pages: 13-35

Dates

published

2018

Contributors

author

Grosse Tomasz Grzegorz

• University of Warsaw

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