MODELLING OF PRICE AND INCOME EFFECTS ON UKRAINE’S AGRICULTURAL EXPORT GROWTH
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Using monthly data for the 2001─2013 period, this paper applies Error-Correction Model (ECM) to estimate export demand effects for Ukraine’s agricultural commodities and foodstuffs. According to our results, the long-run exchange rate sensitivity of export demand seems to be rather weak, whereas the domestic income effect is high enough across all four groups: (i) meat, fish and dairy products; (ii) wheat and vegetables; (iii) vegetable oil and (iv) foodstuffs. No evidence is found of the long-term relationship between agricultural exports and foreign trade-partner industrial output. However, both exchange rate and foreign output are established to strongly affect the demand for agricultural exports in the short-run. Also, there is evidence of a speedy short-run adjustment for all groups of agricultural exports to their long-run relationships.
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