Commodity price volatility, output growth and exchange rate dynamics in the Central and Eastern European countries

• Authors: Żyra Agnieszka , Shevchuk Solomiya
• Languages of publication: PL EN

Abstracts

EN

This paper investigates the commodity price effects upon GDP growth and nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) dynamics in several Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania). Our main finding is that an increase in the world commodity price index is a factor behind a uniform exchange rate appreciation across all countries, with an acceleration in output growth in the Czech Republic and Hungary. Except for the Czech Republic, higher commodity price volatility is associated with exchange rate depreciation, while being neutral with respect to output growth. Among some other results, exchange rate dynamics seems to be independent of output growth in three out of four countries, while the effects of a foreign demand shock as proxied by Germany’s industrial production are quite homogeneous across nations.

Keywords

EN

commodity prices; output; exchange rate; Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries

• Publisher: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
• Journal: Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
• Year: 2018
• Issue: 509
• Pages: 509-520

Contributors

author

Żyra Agnieszka

author

Shevchuk Solomiya