2018 | 4 | 425-441
Article title

Znaczenie wydatków wojskowych w ocenie efektów polityki fiskalnej

Title variants
The Significance of Military Spending in Evaluating Fiscal Policy Effects
Значение военных расходов при оценке эффектов фискальной политики
Languages of publication
Celem artykułu jest zbadanie wpływu polityki fiskalnej na PKB w Czechach, Polsce i na Węgrzech na podstawie kształtowania się wydatków wojskowych. W badaniu wykorzystano model SVAR oparty na identyfikacji O. Blancharda i R. Perottiego. W modelu tym wykorzystano trzy zmienne: PKB, podatki netto oraz wydatki wojskowe, które mają bardziej egzogeniczny charakter niż pozostałe wydatki rządowe. Z przeprowadzonych analiz wynika, że polityka fiskalna w zakresie wydatków wojskowych silnie oddziałuje na kształtowanie się PKB w analizowanych gospodarkach – w każdym z badanych krajów uzyskano maksymalne mnożniki wydatków wojskowych są znacznie wyższe od jedności. Otrzymane wyniki pokazują, że tradycyjnie szacowane mnożniki wydatków rządowych prawdopodobnie niedoszacowują siły oddziaływania polityki fiskalnej na gospodarkę. Funkcje reakcji na impuls wskazują przy tym na znaczne zróżnicowanie trwałości skutków zmian wydatków rządowych. W przypadku Polski oddziaływanie polityki fiskalnej na PKB jest najbardziej trwałe, natomiast na Węgrzech wygasa przed upływem dwóch lat od wystąpienia szoku.
The aim of this article is to analyze the impact of military spending shocks on GDP in the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary. This study is based on SVAR model with identification scheme of O. Blanchard and R. Perotti. Our model includes three variables: real GDP, net taxes and military spending, which is more exogenous than other government spending. The results show that military spending has a strong influence on GDP growth in analyzed countries – in each country, the peak multiplier is significantly higher than one. The results exhibit that traditionally estimated multipliers of government spending probably underestimate the impact of fiscal policy on the economy. The impulse response functions indicate significant differences in durability of the effects of changes in government expenditure. In case of Poland, the impact of military spending shocks on GDP is most persistent, while in Hungary it expires within two years after the shock.
Целью статьи является исследование влияния фискальной политики на ВВП в Чехии, Польше и в Венгрии на основании формирования военных расходов. В исследовании была использована модель SVAR, опирающаяся на идентификации О.Бланшара и Р.Пероттти. В этой модели были использованы три переменных: ВВП, налоги нетто и военные расходы, которые имеют более эгзогенный характер, чем остальные правительственные расходы. Проведенный анализ показал, что фискальная политика в области военных расходов сильно влияет на формирование ВВП – в каждой из названных стран максимальные множители военных расходов были значительно выше единицы. Полученные результаты показывают, что рассчитываемые традиционными методами множители правительственных расходов, вероятно недооценивают силу воздействия фискальной политики на экономику. Функции реакции на импульс указывают при этом на значительную дифференциацию устойчивости последствий изменений правитель- ственных расходов. В случае Польши воздействие фискальной политики на ВВП является наиболее устойчивым, зато в Венгрии оно угасает до истечения двух лет с момента появления шока.

Physical description
  • Alptekin A., Levine P., Military Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis, „European Journal of Political Economy” 2012, nr 28(4).
  • Auerbach A.J., Gorodnichenko Y., Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy, ,,American Economic Journal: Economic Policy” 2012, nr 4(2).
  • Baranowski P., Krajewski P., Mackiewicz M., Szymańska A., The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy over the Business Cycle: a CEE Perspective, ,,Emerging Markets Finance and Trade” 2016, nr 52(8).
  • Barro R.J., Output Effects of Government Purchases, ,,Journal of Political Economy” 1981, nr 89(6).
  • Batini N., Callegari G., Melina G., Successful Austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan, IMF Working Paper WP/12/190, 2012.
  • Baum A., Koester G.B., The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Activity over the Business Cycle – Evidence From a Threshold VAR Analysis, Bundesbank Discussion Paper nr 3, Series 1, Deutsche Bundesbank, 2011.
  • Baxter M., King R.G., Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium, ,,American Economic Review” 1993, nr 83(3).
  • Benčík M., Dual Regime Fiscal Multipliers in Converging Economies – A Simple STVAR Approach, Národná Banka Slovenska, Working Paper no. 2/2014, 2014.
  • Biswas B., Ram R., Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries: An Augmented Model and Further Evidence, ,,Economic Development and Cultural Change” 1986, nr 34.
  • Blanchard O., Perotti R., An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output, ,,Quarterly Journal of Economics” 2002, nr 117(4).
  • Braun R.A, McGrattan E.R., The Macroeconomics of War and Peace, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Chicago 1993.
  • Caldara D., Kamps C., What Are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks? A VAR-Based Comparative Analysis, ECB Working Papers series no 877, 2008.
  • Caldara D., Kamps Ch., The Analytics of SVARs: A Unified Framework to Measure Fiscal Multipliers, Finance and Economics Discussion Series Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington 2012.
  • Cavallari L., Romano S., Fiscal Policy in Europe: The Importance of Making it Predictable, ,,Economic Modelling” 2017, nr 60.
  • Christiano L.J., Eichenbaum M., Current Real-Business-Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor-Market Fluctuations, ,,American Economic Review” 1992, nr 82(3).
  • Christiano L.J., Eichenbaum M., Evans Ch. L., Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy, ,,Journal of Political Economy”, University of Chicago Press, 2005, nr 113(1).
  • Christiano L.J., Eichenbaum M., Rebelo S., When is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?, ,,Journal of Political Economy’’ 2011, nr 119(1).
  • Coenen G., Erceg Ch.J., Freedman Ch., Furceri D., Kumhof M., Lalonde R., Laxton D., Lindé J., Mourougane A., Muir D., Mursula S., de Resende C., Roberts J., Roeger W., Snudden S., Trabandt M., in’t Veld J., Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models, ,,American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics” 2012, nr 4(1).
  • Cogan J.F, Cwik T., Taylor J.B., Wieland V., New Keynesian versus Old Keynesian Government Spending Multipliers, ,,Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control” 2010, nr 34(3).
  • d’Agostino G., Dunne J.P., Pieroni L., Does Military Spending Matter for Long-Run Growth?, „Defence and Peace Economics” 2017, nr 28.
  • Dunne J.P., Tian N., Military Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Survey, „The Economics of Peace and Security Journal” 2013, nr 8(1).
  • Eggertsson G., What Fiscal Policy is Effective at zero Interest Rates?, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, t. 25, Chicago 2011.
  • Eichenbaum M., Fisher J.D.M, Fiscal Policy in the Aftermath of 9/11, ,,Journal of Money, Credit and Banking” 2005, nr vol. 37(1).
  • Fatás A., Mihov I., The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence, CEPR Discussion Papers, 2760, 2001.
  • Favero C., Giavazzi F., Measuring Tax Multipliers: the Narrative Method in Fiscal VARs, ,,American Economic Journal: Economic Policy” 2012, nr 4(2).
  • Forni M., Gambetti L., Government Spending Shocks in Open Economy VARs, ,,Journal of International Economics” 2016, nr 99.
  • Gechert S., What Fiscal Policy is Most Effective? A Meta-Regression Analysis, Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press 2015, nr 67(3).
  • Gechert S., Will H., Fiscal Multipliers: A Meta Regression Analysis, IMK Working Paper no. 97–2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute, 2012.
  • Grdović Gnip A., The Power of Fiscal Multipliers in Croatia, ,,Financial Theory and Practice” 2014, nr 38(2).
  • Hall R.E., By How Much Does GDP Rise If the Government Buys More Output?, ,,Brookings Papers on Economic Activity” Fall 2009.
  • Hansen G.D., Indivisible Labor and the Business Cycle, ,,Journal of Monetary Economics” 1985, nr 16(3).
  • Haug A., Jędrzejowicz T., Sznajderska A., Combining Monetary and Fiscal Policy in an SVAR for a Small Open Economy, NBP Working Paper nr 168, 2013.
  • Hemming R., Kell M., Mahfouz S., The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity-A Review of the Literature, IMF Working Paper nr 02/208, 2002.
  • Ilzetzki E., Mendoza E.G., Végh C.A., How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers?, ,,Journal of Monetary Economics” 2013, nr 60(2).
  • Kollias C., Manolas G., Paleologou S.M., Defence Expenditure and Economic Growth in the European Union: a Causality Analysis, „Journal of Policy Modeling” 2004, nr 26(5).
  • Kydland F.E., Prescott E.C., Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations, „Econometrica” 1982, nr 50(6).
  • Leeper E.M., Richter A.W., Walker T.B., Quantitative Effects of Fiscal Foresight, ,,American Economic Journal: Economic Policy” 2012, nr 4(2).
  • Leeper E.M., Walker T.B., Yang S.S., Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows, ,,Econometrica” 2013, nr 81(3).
  • Long J.B., Plosser Ch.I., Real Business Cycles, ,,Journal of Political Economy” 1983, nr 91(1).
  • Mertens K., Ravn M.O., Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks, ,,American Economic Journal: Economic Policy” 2012, nr 4(2).
  • Monacelli T., Perotti R., Fiscal Policy, Wealth Effects, and Markups, NBER Working Papers nr 14584, 2008.
  • Mountford A., Uhlig H., What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?, ,,Journal of Applied Econometrics” 2009, nr 24(6).
  • Muir D., Weber A., Fiscal Multipliers in Bulgaria: Low But Still Relevant, IMF Working Paper nr WP/13/49, 2013.
  • Perotti R., Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries, CEPR Discussion Paper nr 4842, 2005.
  • Pipień M., Roszkowska S., Szacunki kwartalnego PKB w polskich województwach, ,,Gospodarka Narodowa” 2015, nr 5.
  • Price R.W.R., Dang T.-T., Guillemette Y., New Tax and Expenditure Elasticity Estimates For EU Budget Surveillance, OECD Economics Department Working Papers nr 1174, 2014.
  • Ramey V.A., Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It’s all in the Timing, ,,Quarterly Journal of Economics” 2011, nr 126(1).
  • Ramey V.A., Shapiro M.D., Costly Capital Reallocation and the Effects of Government Spending, ,,Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy” 1998, nr 48(1).
  • Ricco G., Callegari G., Cimadomo J., Signals from the Government: Policy Disagreement and the Transmission of Fiscal Shocks, ,,Journal of Monetary Economics” 2016, nr 82.
  • Romer Ch.D., Romer D.H., The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks, ,,American Economic Review” 2010, nr 100(3).
  • Sheremirov V., Spirovska S., Output Response to Government Spending: Evidence from New International Military Spending Data, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Working Paper nr 15–9, 2015.
  • Smets F., Wouters R., An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area, ,,Journal of European Economic Association” 2003, nr 1(5).
  • Smets F., Wouters R., Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach, ,,American Economic Review” 2007, nr 97(3).
  • Spilimbergo A., Symansky S., Schindler M., Fiscal Multipliers, IMF Staff Position Note, nr SPN/09/11, 2009.
  • Waszkiewicz G., Wydatki obronne w krajach strefy euro i ich wpływ na wzrost gospodarczy, „Ekonomista” 2017, nr 3.
  • Woodford M., Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier, ,,American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics” 2011, nr 3(1).
Document Type
Publication order reference
YADDA identifier
JavaScript is turned off in your web browser. Turn it on to take full advantage of this site, then refresh the page.