PL EN


Journal
2018 | 4 | 425-441
Article title

Znaczenie wydatków wojskowych w ocenie efektów polityki fiskalnej

Title variants
EN
The Significance of Military Spending in Evaluating Fiscal Policy Effects
RU
Значение военных расходов при оценке эффектов фискальной политики
Languages of publication
PL
Abstracts
PL
Celem artykułu jest zbadanie wpływu polityki fiskalnej na PKB w Czechach, Polsce i na Węgrzech na podstawie kształtowania się wydatków wojskowych. W badaniu wykorzystano model SVAR oparty na identyfikacji O. Blancharda i R. Perottiego. W modelu tym wykorzystano trzy zmienne: PKB, podatki netto oraz wydatki wojskowe, które mają bardziej egzogeniczny charakter niż pozostałe wydatki rządowe. Z przeprowadzonych analiz wynika, że polityka fiskalna w zakresie wydatków wojskowych silnie oddziałuje na kształtowanie się PKB w analizowanych gospodarkach – w każdym z badanych krajów uzyskano maksymalne mnożniki wydatków wojskowych są znacznie wyższe od jedności. Otrzymane wyniki pokazują, że tradycyjnie szacowane mnożniki wydatków rządowych prawdopodobnie niedoszacowują siły oddziaływania polityki fiskalnej na gospodarkę. Funkcje reakcji na impuls wskazują przy tym na znaczne zróżnicowanie trwałości skutków zmian wydatków rządowych. W przypadku Polski oddziaływanie polityki fiskalnej na PKB jest najbardziej trwałe, natomiast na Węgrzech wygasa przed upływem dwóch lat od wystąpienia szoku.
EN
The aim of this article is to analyze the impact of military spending shocks on GDP in the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary. This study is based on SVAR model with identification scheme of O. Blanchard and R. Perotti. Our model includes three variables: real GDP, net taxes and military spending, which is more exogenous than other government spending. The results show that military spending has a strong influence on GDP growth in analyzed countries – in each country, the peak multiplier is significantly higher than one. The results exhibit that traditionally estimated multipliers of government spending probably underestimate the impact of fiscal policy on the economy. The impulse response functions indicate significant differences in durability of the effects of changes in government expenditure. In case of Poland, the impact of military spending shocks on GDP is most persistent, while in Hungary it expires within two years after the shock.
RU
Целью статьи является исследование влияния фискальной политики на ВВП в Чехии, Польше и в Венгрии на основании формирования военных расходов. В исследовании была использована модель SVAR, опирающаяся на идентификации О.Бланшара и Р.Пероттти. В этой модели были использованы три переменных: ВВП, налоги нетто и военные расходы, которые имеют более эгзогенный характер, чем остальные правительственные расходы. Проведенный анализ показал, что фискальная политика в области военных расходов сильно влияет на формирование ВВП – в каждой из названных стран максимальные множители военных расходов были значительно выше единицы. Полученные результаты показывают, что рассчитываемые традиционными методами множители правительственных расходов, вероятно недооценивают силу воздействия фискальной политики на экономику. Функции реакции на импульс указывают при этом на значительную дифференциацию устойчивости последствий изменений правитель- ственных расходов. В случае Польши воздействие фискальной политики на ВВП является наиболее устойчивым, зато в Венгрии оно угасает до истечения двух лет с момента появления шока.
Keywords
Publisher

Journal
Year
Issue
4
Pages
425-441
Physical description
Contributors
References
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