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2018 | 4(18) | 1 | 3-15
Article title

Long-term trends in international migration: lessons from macroeconomic model

Content
Title variants
Languages of publication
EN
Abstracts
EN
In this paper I develop a stylized model of the world economy and use it to explain the long-run trends in international migration. The model very well fits the trends of the last 40 years which are mainly governed by the evolution of population disparities between industrialized and developing countries. Then I provide migration projections for the 21st century and show that future migration is also governed by socio-demographic changes. I predict a robust increase in immigration pressures from sub-Saharan Africa and MENA countries to European countries.
Year
Volume
Issue
1
Pages
3-15
Physical description
Dates
published
2018-03-30
Contributors
References
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  • Bertoli, S. & J. Fernandez-Huertas Moraga (2013). Multilateral resistance to migration. Journal of Development Economics, 102(C): 79-100.
  • Dao, T.H. & F. Docquier & M. Maurel & P. Schaus (2017). Global migration in the 20th and 21st centuries: the unstoppable force of demography. Manuscript.
  • Docquier, F. & J. Machado (2017). Income disparities, population and migration flows over the 21st century. Italian Journal of Economics, 3(2): 125-149.
  • Hanson, G. & C. McIntosh (2016). Is the Mediterranean the new Rio Grande? US and EU immigration pressures in the long run. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 30(4): 57-82.
  • Lutz, W. & W.P. Butz & Samir KC (2014). World population and human capital in the twenty-first century. Oxford University Press.
  • Ottaviano, G.I.P. & G. Peri (2012). Rethinking the effect of immigration on wages. Journal of the European Economic Association, 10: 152-197.
  • Ozden, C. & C.R. Parsons & M. Schiff & T.L. Walmsley (2011). Where on earth is everybody? The evolution of global bilateral migration 1960-2000. World Bank Economic Review, 25(1): 12-56.
Document Type
Publication order reference
Identifiers
YADDA identifier
bwmeta1.element.desklight-d344da6a-edd7-4438-81fa-df123a8e99ad
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