2016 | 2 | 1 | 6-18
Article title

Ukraine Through the Prism of Geopolitical Challenges: Analytical Aspect

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This paper examines the global trends that will be reflected in global politics. Systematization of a large number of sources of major research centers allowed forming a hierarchy of challenges and threats able to influence global and regional policy. Special attention is given to Ukraine, events which significantly influence the Eurasian and global political space. The article gives an insight of the political processes in Ukraine, its problems and achievements. Understanding the situation in Ukraine in the light of global trends allows us to realize the impact on geopolitical balance of power in the world. Events in Ukraine, as in Syria, became the catalyst for change that led to reformatting of political and regional map of the world. Significant pressure from new social, political, economic, military, informational and humanitarian threats and challenges was put upon security and bureaucratic structures of the European Union, NATO, UN and others. The obvious is that the global security system based on the principles of collective responsibility of the twentieth century is affected by a considerable transformation. This, in turn, has put on the agenda the issue of the capacity of modern political and business elites and the management establishment responds adequately to new manifestations of systemic crises and threats. The efficiency of the management of public authority institutions in internal and external policy is not only to improve the analytical tools to identify key social issues, but also the ability to form the institutional and civil mechanisms of preventive counteract against the disintegration of the political and economic environment of the state. But traditionally forecasts are significantly correlated with the realities of life and professional and volitional qualities of consumers of intellectual products in the field of management. Currently, a large number of analytical studies, prognostic versions of the future, futurological predictions from authoritative think-tanks perform not just their main prognostic function - an objective reflection of patterns of global and regional processes, but in most cases a multi-purpose product of political influence. Political analytics in public policy is a tool of public opinion formation (an artificial change of public attitudes, priorities, perceptions, expectations etc.) and implementation of some projections of the future or for world politics the most likely and expected models of situations development in high-risk areas. Analytical forecasts are often (have become) not only a means of pseudo scientific impact on society, with wide manipulative tools, using misinformation, “gray” technologies of the hidden influence on the individual and groups of individuals, hybrid types of information influence etc., but also behavioral models of national policy key actors. This is primarily due to political preconception and relations with different centers of force, wellknown expert-analytical agencies. Accordingly, analytical findings of many of them are entirely synthetic and designed in order to model, correlate and correct agenda and project the necessary previously ordered future efficiently. In early 2016 the global analytical and expert community, the leading "think tanks" began to provide us with own predictive versions of events development in the world both at global and regional levels. In many ways, the most influential models of the future differ from each other, and therefore need to build a more coherent and systematic view of the likely scenarios for the future. In addition, it is significant to emphasize that the complexity of forecasting and analytical activity caused by the intensity, dynamic processes and increase of the number of input data exponentially in the current development of the world. The justification of this is a methodological weakness of well-known world think-tanks in the matters of development of even shortterm forecasts on Syria, Ukraine migration processes, European Union, Mediterranean etc. This led to a serious debate in analytic community in the US and Western Europe on the revision of established strategies of information-analytical and expert activities. In particular, the results of the scenarios made by the most "think tanks" in the past year, according to our estimate, have come true with the coincidence of 40 per cent. Especially they reveal not always accurate forecasts regarding the situation deployment around the resolution of the conflict in Ukraine under the so-called "Minsk format", the resolution of the conflict in Syria under the so-called "Geneva format", critical and final phase of destabilization and destruction of the Russian Federation, significant decline in economic development and social explosions in the People's Republic of China, the stabilization of situation in the "Arab spring" zone, efficacy of international mechanisms and institutions in addressing global challenges (especially in the matters of war and peace) etc.
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  • Department of Political Analitics and Prognosis of National Academy of Public Administration
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