Determining the Impact of Residential Neighbourhood Crime on Housing Investment Using Logistic Regression

• Authors: Olajide Sunday Emmanuel , Lizam Mohd

Title variants

RU

Определение влияния уровня преступности жилого микрорайона на инвестиции в жилищное строительство с использованием логистической регрессии

• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

This paper discusses the impact of criminal activities on residential property value. With regard to criminal activities, the paper emphasizes on the contribution of each component of property crime. One thousand (1000) sets of structured questionnaire were administered on the residents of residential estates within the South Western States of Nigeria out of which 467 were considered useable after the data screening. Purposive and systematic sampling techniques were used while logistic regression was used to determine the impact of each of the components of residential property crime on housing investment. The results showed the P-Values of 0.000, 0.322, 0.335, 0.545 and 0.992 for violent crime, incivilities and street crime, burglary and theft, vandalism and robbery respectively. However, the R2 which represents the generalisation of the impact of neighbourhood crime on housing investment was 44 % and aggregate P-value was 0.000. Using the Hosmer and Lemeshow (H-L) test of goodness of fit, the model had approximately 89% predictive probability which is considered excellent. This indicates that the alternative hypothesis is upheld that residential neighbourhood crime is capable of impacting on residential property value. The policy implication of this result is that no effort should be spared in combating residential neighbourhood crime in order to boost and encourage housing investment.

RU

В данной статье рассматривается влияние преступной деятельности на стоимость жилой недвижимости. Что касается преступной деятельности, в работе подчеркивается вклад каждого компонента имущественных преступлений. Одна тысяча (1000) комплектов структурированного вопросника были предложены жителям жилых комплексов в южно-западных штатах Нигерии, из которых 467 были признаны полезными после скрининга данных. Использовались целенаправленные и систематические методы выборки, в то время как логистическая регрессия была использована для определения влияния каждого из компонентов преступной деятельности, связанной с жилой недвижимостью на инвестиции в жилье. Результаты показали, P-Values 0,000, 0,322, 0,335, 0,545 и 0,992 для насильственных преступлений, неучтивости и уличной преступности, взломов и краж, вандализма и грабежа соответственно. Тем не менее, R2, который представляет собой обобщение влияния преступности на инвестиции в жилищное строительство, составил 44 %, а совокупное P-значение составило 0,000. С помощью теста Хосмера и Лемешова (H-L), теста на эффективность и достоверность, модель имела примерно 89% прогностической вероятности, что считается отличным результатом. Это указывает на то, что поддерживается альтернативная гипотеза, о том, что преступность жилого района способна воздействовать на стоимость жилой недвижимости. Политическое значение этого результата состоит в том, что никаких усилий не следует жалеть в борьбе с преступностью жилого микрорайона с целью увеличения и поощрения инвестиций в жилищное строительство.

Keywords

EN

Housing investment; Logistic regression; Property values; Residential neighbourhood crime; Socio-Environmental Design Factors

RU

инвестиции в жилищное строительство; логистическая регрессия; стоимость недвижимости; преступность в жилом микрорайоне; социально-экологические факторы

• Publisher: Altezoro s.r.o. (Slovak Republic) and Publishing Center "Dialog" (Ukraine)
• Journal: Path of Science
• Year: 2016
• Volume: 2
• Issue: 12(17)
• Pages: 6.9-6.18

Dates

published

2016-12-25

Contributors

author

Olajide Sunday Emmanuel

• University Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia

author

Lizam Mohd

• University Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia

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Identifiers

DOI

10.22178/pos.17-13