EN
In this paper we approach the problem of forecasting the key variables in labour market: registered unemployed persons in the Silesian Voivodeship, structure of registered unemployed persons by sex, age and by duration of unemployment. We analyse stability of unemployment trends models and apply the change point detection procedure. Results indicate increasing trends of number of unemployment in some analysed groups in the recent years. This is crucially important from the point of view of regional social and economic development. In the paper we also argue that the segmented trend models are very useful for forecasting and modeling the unemployment structure in the Silesian Voivodeship. As a result of the research conducted a growing tendency in the number of unemployed in the selected market segments has been observed. This is a disturbing phenomenon from the point of view of social and economic development of the Silesian Voivodeship. Furthermore significant usefulness of segment trend models for modeling and forecasting unemployment structures in the Silesian Voivodeship has been demonstrated.