Predicting Dropout Student: An Application of Data Mining Methods in an Online Education Program

• Authors: Erman Yukselturk , Serhat Ozekes , Yalın Kılıç Türel
• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

This study examined the prediction of dropouts through data mining approaches in an online program. The subject of the study was selected from a total of 189 students who registered to the online Information Technologies Certificate Program in 2007-2009. The data was collected through online questionnaires (Demographic Survey, Online Technologies Self-Efficacy Scale, Readiness for Online Learning Questionnaire, Locus of Control Scale, and Prior Knowledge Questionnaire). The collected data included 10 variables, which were gender, age, educational level, previous online experience, occupation, self efficacy, readiness, prior knowledge, locus of control, and the dropout status as the class label (dropout/not). In order to classify dropout students, four data mining approaches were applied based on k-Nearest Neighbour (k-NN), Decision Tree (DT), Naive Bayes (NB) and Neural Network (NN). These methods were trained and tested using 10-fold cross validation. The detection sensitivities of 3-NN, DT, NN and NB classifiers were 87%, 79.7%, 76.8% and 73.9% respectively. Also, using Genetic Algorithm (GA) based feature selection method, online technologies self-efficacy, online learning readiness, and previous online experience were found as the most important factors in predicting the dropouts.

Keywords

EN

Educational data mining; student dropout prediction; k-nearest neighbour; decision tree; Naive Bayes; neural network

• Publisher: Sciendo
• Journal: European Journal of Open, Distance and E-Learning
• Year: 2014
• Volume: 17
• Issue: 1
• Pages: 118-133

Dates

published

2014-07-01

online

2014-12-11

Contributors

author

Erman Yukselturk

• Department of Computer Education and Instructional Technology, Kirikkale University, 71450, Kirikkale, Turkey

author

Serhat Ozekes

• Department of Computer Engineering, Uskudar University, 34662, Uskudar Istanbul, Turkey

author

Yalın Kılıç Türel

• Department of Computer Education and Instructional Technology, Fırat University, 23199, Elazığ, Turkey

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Identifiers

DOI

10.2478/eurodl-2014-0008