Modeling the Real Estate Prices in Olsztyn under Instability Conditions

• Authors: Mirosław Bełej , Sławomir Kulesza
• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

The paper deals with the description of the issues related to the dynamics of the real estate market in terms of sharp, unexpected changes in the housing prices which have been observed in the last decade in many European countries due to some macroeconomic circumstances. When such perturbations appear, the real estate market is said to be structurally unstable, since even a small variation in the control parameters might result in a large, structural change in the state of the whole system. The essential problem addressed in the paper is the need to define and discriminate between the intervals of stable and unstable real estate market development with special attention paid to the latter. The research aims at modeling hardly explored field of discontinuous changes in the real estate market in order to reveal the bifurcation edge. Assuming that the periods of sudden price changes reflect an intrinsic property of the real estate market, it is shown that the evolution path draws for most of the time a smooth curve onto the stability area of the equilibrium surface, and only briefly penetrates into the instability area to hop to another equilibrium state.

Keywords

EN

real estate market; catastrophe theory; system dynamics

• Publisher: Sciendo
• Journal: Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia
• Year: 2012
• Volume: 11
• Issue: 1
• Pages: 61-72

Dates

published

2012-01-01

online

2013-03-15

Contributors

author

Mirosław Bełej

• Ph.D. University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn The Faculty of Geodesy and Land Management Department of Land Management and Regional Development Prawocheńskiego 15, 10-720 Olsztyn, Poland

author

Sławomir Kulesza

• Ph.D. University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn Faculty of Mathematics and Informatics Chair of Relativistic Physics Słoneczna 54, 10-710 Olsztyn, Poland

References

• Adamczewski, Z. (2006). Elementy modelowania matematycznego w wycenie nieruchomości. Warszawa: Oficyna Politechniki Warszawskiej.
• Batóg, B. & Foryś, I. (2010). Modele logitowe w analizie transakcji na warszawskim rynku mieszkaniowym. Studia i Materiały TNN, Vol. 19 (2), 34-48.
• Bełej, M. & Kulesza, S. (2011). Modelowanie cen na rynku nieruchomości w warunkach nieciągłości. Wycena, Vol. 3 (96), 15-19.
• Cellmer, R. (2010). Analiza przestrzenna dynamiki zmian cen nieruchomości lokalowych z wykorzystaniem regresji ważonej geograficznie. Acta Scientorum Polonorum AdministratioLocorum. Vol. 9(3), 5-14.
• Cobb, L. & Watson, B. (1980). Statistical Catastrophe Theory: An Overview, MathematicalModelling, Vol. 1 (4), 311-317.
• Cobb, L. (1998, April). An Introduction to Cusp Surface Analysis, Technical report. Retrieved: June 20, 2012, from www.aetheling.com/models/cusp/Intro.html.
• Czaja, J. (1999). Wymogi wyceny a statystyka. Rzeczoznawca Majątkowy, nr 2, Warszawa: PFSRM.
• Fonseca, E.L., Ferreira, F.F., Muruganandum, P. & Cedeira, H.A. (2012). Indentifying financialcrises in real time, submitted to Physica A.
• Foryś, I. (2011). Społeczno-gospodarcze determinanty rozwoju rynku mieszkaniowego w Polsce. Szczecin: Wydawnictwo Naukowe Uniwersytetu Szczecińskiego.
• Grasman, R., van der Maas, H.L.J. & Wagenmakers, E.-J. (2009). Fitting the cusp catastrophe in R: A cusp package primer. Journal of Statistical Software, Vol. 32, 1-27.
• Hartelman, P.A.I. (1997). Stochastic Catastrophe Theory. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
• Jakimowicz, A. (2003). Od Keynesa do teorii chaosu. Warszawa: Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN.
• Kim, C.-J. & Yunjong, E. (2012). Markov-switching models with evolving regime-specific parameters:Are post-war booms or recessions all alike. Discussion paper, private communication.
• Montagnana, M., Prizzon, F. & Zorzi, F. (1989). Qualitative models for analyzing housing markets dynamics. Papers of the Regional Science Association, Vol. 69, 153-165.
• Renigier-Biłozor, M. (2010). Analysis of real estate markets with the use of the rough set theory. Studia i Materiały TNN, Vol. 19 (1), 107-118.
• Thom, R. (1976). Structural stability and morphogenesis: an outline of a general theory ofmodels. Reading, Mass: Benjamin.
• Trojanek, R. (2008). Wahania cen na rynku mieszkaniowym. Poznań: Wydawnictwo Akademii Ekonomicznej.
• Wiśniewski, R. (2007). Wielowymiarowe prognozowanie wartości nieruchomości. Olsztyn: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Warmińsko-Mazurskiego.
• Żelazowski, K. (2011). Regionalne zróżnicowanie cen i ich determinant na rynku mieszkaniowym w Polsce. Studia i Materiały TNN, Vol. 19 (3), 98-106.

Identifiers

DOI

10.2478/v10031-012-0008-7