GSIM Measurement of the Effects of the EU accession of the Balkans and Turkey on Agricultural Trade

• Authors: Mario Holzner
• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

In this paper, the global simulation model (GSIM) for the analysis of global, regional, and unilateral trade policy changes by Francois and Hall (2003) was applied to the agricultural trade between the EU, the Balkans and Turkey. This was done in order to measure the effects of an EU accession of the Balkans and Turkey. Most of the changes in welfare after a full liberalisation of agricultural trade between the Balkans and Turkey on the one hand and the EU on the other hand can be expected in the accession countries themselves. It is estimated that incumbent EU members will be affected only to a minor extent. It was also estimated that the exchange rate risk is not very high.

Keywords

EN

Trade Policy Modelling; Southeast Europe; Turkey; EU Integration; Trade in Agriculture; Real Exchange Rate

• Publisher: Sciendo
• Journal: South East European Journal of Economics and Business
• Year: 2008
• Volume: 3
• Issue: 1
• Pages: 7-14

Dates

published

2008-04-01

online

2008-04-14

Contributors

author

Mario Holzner

• The Vienna Institute, International Economic Studies (WIIW) Oppolzergasse, 6, 1010 Wien, Austria

References

• Fujita, M., Krugman, P., Venables, A. (2000), The Spatial Economy - Cities, Regions and International Trade, The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 2000.
• Francois, J., Hall, K., H. (2003), Global Simulation Analysis of Industry-Level Trade Policy, technical paper, Version 3.0: 21 April 2003, mimeo (World Bank).
• Holzner, M. (2004), ‘GSIM Measurement of the Costs of Protection in Southeast Europe’, paper prepared for the project ‘Measurement of the Costs of Protection in Southeast Europe‘ financed by the Jubiläumsfonds of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank, June 2004.
• Holzner, M. (2006a), ‘GSIM Measurement of the Effect of the SAA in BiH’, EPRU Working Paper, No 4, March.
• Holzner, M. (2006b), ‘Real Exchange Rate Distortion in Southeast Europe’, paper prepared for the ‘Global Development Network Southeast Europe’ (GDN SEE), financed by The World Bank, the Austrian Ministry of Finance and the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
• Lukas, Z., Pöschl, J. (2003), Bedrohung für Österreichs Landwirtschaft? - Szenarien zur Entwicklung der MOE-Landwirtschaft im europäischen und internationalen Verbund', The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW), Vienna, 2003.
• Messerlin, P. (2001), Measuring the Cost of Protection in Europe, Institute for International Economics, Washington DC, September 2001.

Identifiers

DOI

10.2478/v10033-008-0001-0