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Journal

2010 | 43 | 3 | 102-112

Article title

A Methodology for Improving Strategic Decisions in Social Systems with a Lack of Information

Title variants

Languages of publication

EN

Abstracts

EN
The design of strategies for social systems requires the use of qualitative information owing to the fact that quantitative information can be insufficient to solve the problems involved. The information that the specialists and the decision makers obtain is often incomplete and unreliable. Nevertheless, leaders have to make strategic decisions despite these deficiencies which should be based on the formal models (Kljajić et al. 2000; Škraba et al, 2003; Škraba et al 2007).This paper describes a methodology elaborated to design the strategy of the city of Santa Cruz (on the Canary Islands). It has two main sections: the elaboration of a qualitative model and the use of System Dynamics. We combine them in a way that allows mixing qualitative and quantitative information to achieve a better understanding of the structure of the region, to know the tendencies of the present scenario and to estimate of the effects of alternative strategic decisions. We have obtained these results working with scarce quantitative information. This methodology may be applied to any social systems with similar characteristics.

Publisher

Journal

Year

Volume

43

Issue

3

Pages

102-112

Physical description

Dates

published
2010-05-01
online
2010-06-09

Contributors

author
  • Department of Institutional Economics, Economics Statistics and Econometrics, University of La Laguna, 38071 La Laguna, Spain
  • Faculty of Organizational Sciences, Laboratory of Cybernetics and Decision Support Systems, University of Maribor, Kidričeva cesta 55a, 4000 Kranj, Slovenia

References

  • Ayuntamiento de Santa Cruz de Tenerife. (2006). Plan General de Ordenación de Santa Cruz Tenerife. Mimeo, not published.
  • Jouvenel H. de., (1993). Sur la démarche prospective, Futuribles, Paris, 9, 51-69.
  • Godet, M. (1991a). De l'anticipation à l'action. Paris: Dunod.[WoS]
  • Godet, M. (1991b). L'avenir autrement. Paris: Armand Colin.
  • Guirao Pérez, G. Hernández Hernández J., Legna Verna C. A. & Macías Hernández A. (2007). Navarro Ibáñez M. and Rivero Ceballos J. Santa Cruz de Tenerife: capital insular y metrópoli atlántica. Tendencias y estrategias. Santa Cruz de Tenerife: Delta Publicaciones.
  • Kljajić, M., Škraba A. & Legna Verna C. A. (2002). System Dynamics Model of the Canary Islands for Supporting Strategic Public Decisions. Paper presented at the annual international meeting for the System Dynamics Society. June 28-August 1st in Palermo, Italy.
  • Kljajić, M. Škraba A. & Legna Verna C. A. (2003a). Simulation Model of Canary Islands, preliminary results. Paper presented at the annual international meeting for the System Dynamics Society. July 20-24 in New York, United States.
  • Kljajić, M. Škraba A. & Legna Verna C. A. (2003b). Simulation Model of Canary Islands for Public Decision Support. Paper presented at the International Conference on Applied Simulation and Modelling, September 3-5 in Marbella, Spain.
  • Kljajić, M., Bernik, I. & Škraba, A. (2000). Simulation Approach to Decision Assessment in Enterprises. Simulation, 75(4), 199-210, DOI: 10.1177/003754970007500402.[Crossref]
  • Legna Verna, C. A. & González González, C. (2004). An intelligent decision support system (IDSS) for public decisions using systems dynamic and case base reasoning (CBR) Paper presented at the annual international meeting of the System Dynamics Society, July 25-29 in Oxford, Great Britain.
  • Legna Verna, C. A. & González González, C. (2006). Application of System Dynamics and Case Base Reasoning (CBR) to build an Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS) to improve Strategic Public Decisions. In Intelligent Decision-Making Support Systems (i-DMSS): Foundations, Applications and Challenges, eds. Jatinder Gupta, Guisseppi Forgionne and Manuel Mora, pp. 255-271. Bedford: Springer-Verlag.
  • Legna Verna, C. A., Kljajić, M. & Škraba, A. (2005). Development of Simulation Model of the Canary Islands for Strategic Decision Making. Organizacija, 38(5): 519-529 (special issue: Simulation-based Decision Support).
  • Legna Verna, C. A., Kljajić, M. & Škraba, A. (2005). System Dynamics Model of the Canary Islands for Strategic Public Decision Support. Organizacija, 38(5), 508-518 (special issue: Simulation based Decision Support).
  • Legna Verna, C. A. (2000). Knowledge and knowledge management for the improvement of strategic public decisions. In Decision Support through Knowledge Management, ed. Department of Computation and Systems Sciences of the Stockholm University and the Royal Institute of Technology Sweden, pp. 100-113. Stockholm: Royal Institute of Technology.
  • Legna Verna, C. A. (2005). Gestión pública estratégica y prospectiva, con aplicaciones al ámbito regional. Badajoz: Abecedario.
  • Roubelat, F. 1993. L'analyse structurelle. In La Prospective, Pratiques et Méthodeseds. Hatem, F. Cazes, B. and Roubelat, F. Paris: Economica.
  • Sterman, J. D. (1994). Learning in and about complex systems. System Dynamics Review, 10(2), 291-330, DOI: 10.1002/sdr.4260100214,.[Crossref]
  • Škraba, A., Kljajić, M. & Borštnar, M. K. (2007). The role of information feedback in the management group decision-making process applying system dynamics models, Group Decision and Negotiation, 16(1) 77-95.
  • Škraba, A., Kljajić, M. & Leskovar, R. (2003): Group Exploration of SD Models-Is there a Place for a Feedback Loop in the Decision Process?, System Dynamics Review, 19(3), 243-263, DOI: 10.1002/sdr.274.[Crossref]

Document Type

Publication order reference

Identifiers

YADDA identifier

bwmeta1.element.doi-10_2478_v10051-010-0011-4
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