Nierównowaga finansów publicznych w krajach Unii Europejskiej

• Authors: Paweł Gajewski

Title variants

EN

Public Finance Sustainability in European Union Countries

• Languages of publication: PL

Abstracts

EN

The article aims to estimate the current level of public finance sustainability in the European Union, taking into account the starting fiscal position, the possibility of withdrawing fiscal impulses, the future costs of population aging, and possible financial market responses. The author achieves this objective by using an indicator method similar to that used by the European Commission. However, this method has been modified by diversifying projected GDP growth rates and public debt interest rates, Gajewski says. The assumption is that the interest rate may vary depending on the response of financial markets to the debt-to-GDP ratio. The author demonstrates that almost all EU countries have lost their medium- and long-term fiscal sustainability. Greece and Ireland appear to be the worst off among the analyzed countries, Gajewski says. Both these economies suffer from a high structural budget deficit and potentially high costs of population aging. Most other countries will also be forced to make strong fiscal adjustments to achieve primary surpluses far exceeding those in the period before the financial crisis. The calculations also show that Sweden, Estonia and Bulgaria boast the highest levels of public finance sustainability in the European Union, the author concludes.

Keywords

EN

public debt; public finance sustainability; financial crisis

• Publisher: Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie. Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych
• Journal: Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
• Year: 2011
• Volume: 251
• Issue: 10
• Pages: 21-38

Dates

published

2011-10-31

Contributors

author

Paweł Gajewski

Identifiers

DOI

10.33119/GN/101072