Kwantyfikacja zmian luki VAT: podejście ekonometryczne

• Authors: Karolina Konopczak

Title variants

EN

Quantification of Changes in the VAT Gap: An Econometric Approach

• Languages of publication: PL

Abstracts

PL

W niniejszym artykule zaproponowano alternatywną względem stosowanych w literaturze metodykę szacowania zmian luki VAT, pozwalającą na jej bieżący (kwartalny) monitoring. Łączy ona dwie tradycje modelowania dochodów podatkowych: metodę rozbieżności oraz metodę szacowania elastyczności dochodów podatkowych względem bazy podatkowej. Kształtowanie się luki VAT utożsamiane jest ze zmianami reaktywności rzeczywistych dochodów podatkowych względem teoretycznych (czyli – ekwiwalentnie – rzeczywistych dochodów względem bazy podatkowej przy kontroli zmian stawek podatkowych). Metoda została wykorzystana do oszacowania zmian luki VAT w Polsce w latach 2016–2018.

EN

This article proposes an alternative methodology for estimating changes in the VAT gap that allows for their timely (quarterly) monitoring. It combines two traditions of tax modelling: calculating a discrepancy between theoretical tax liabilities and the amount of tax actually collected, as well as estimating the elasticities of tax revenues. In this approach, the VAT gap trajectory is associated with a changing elasticity of actual tax revenues with respect to theoretical revenues (or, equivalently, the elasticity of actual revenues corrected for changes in the tax system with respect to the tax base). The method was used to estimate changes in the VAT gap in Poland from 2016 to 2018.

Keywords

PL

luka VAT; elastyczność dochodów podatkowych; analiza kointegracji; model ARDL

EN

cointegration; VAT gap; tax elasticities; ARDL model

• Publisher: Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie. Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych
• Journal: Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
• Year: 2020
• Volume: 302
• Issue: 2
• Pages: 25-42

Dates

published

2020-06-30

received

2019-10-17

revised

2020-01-24

accepted

2020-04-16

Contributors

author

Karolina Konopczak

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Identifiers

DOI

10.33119/GN/120624