Celem opracowania jest wykrycie i opisanie prawidłowości rządzących zmiennością stopy procentowej WIBOR 3M, kursami wymiany złotego względem USD i EURO, indeksem WIG 20 oraz cenami kontraktów terminowych. Do badania zachowań polskiego rynku finansowego wykorzystano metodologię łańcuchów Markowa drugiego rzędu.
EN
The authors employ a new methodology of Markov processes for studying the daily behavior of exchange rate, interest rate, stock exchange index and futures prices volatilities. This paper presents empirical research concerning the occurrence of calendar anomalies in the Polish financial market. Under the U-shaped trading pattern, the market is more active and the volatilities are higher at the opening and closing trading periods, than those once at the other trading periods. The authors apply a long-run probability model by using a second-order Markov chain to study the daily transaction price pattern. Then the first-order Markov chain of the composite states is constructed to analysis the relationships between futures prices and trading volumes. The authors find some interesting results such as higher probabilities of transitions between larger volatilities at the opening and closing trading week. The main advantages of Markov models include a relative simplicity of construction, easy conclusion-drawing, well-known estimation methods and especially using of properties of these models in describing the observed properties of many real phenomena.(original abstract)