Full-text resources of CEJSH and other databases are now available in the new Library of Science.
Visit https://bibliotekanauki.pl

PL EN


2018 | Volume 14 | Issue 1 | 97-104

Article title

Inflation persistence in BRICS countries: A quantile autoregressive (QAR) approach

Authors

Content

Title variants

Languages of publication

EN

Abstracts

EN
Using the quantile autoregression methodology (QAR), this study contributes to the ever-expanding empirical literature by investigating the persistence in inflation for BRICS countries using quarterly time series data collected between 1996 to 2016. Our empirical analysis reveals two crucial findings. Firstly, for all estimated regressions, inflation persistence in the higher percentiles of the QAR regression exhibits unit root tendencies. Secondly, we note that the global financial crisis did alter the levels of inflation persistence at all quantiles for all BRICS countries. Collectively, we advise monetary authorities in BRICS countries to focus on keeping inflation at low and stable rates.

Year

Volume

Issue

Pages

97-104

Physical description

Dates

published
2018-01-24

Contributors

author
  • Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Economic Studies, Nelson Mandela University, South Africa

References

  • Amano, R. (2007). Inflation persistence and monetary policy: A simple result. Economic Letters, 94(1), 26-31.
  • Antonakakis, N., Cunado, J., Gil-Alana, L., & Gupta, R. (2016). Is inflation persistence different in reality?. Economic Letters, 148, 55-58.
  • Balcilar, M., Gupta, R., & Jooste ,C. (2016). Analysing South Africa’s inflation persistence using an ARFIMA model with Markov-switching fractional differencing parameter. The Journal of Developing Areas, 50(1), 47-57.
  • Batini, N. (2006). Euro area inflation persistence. Empirical Economics, 31(4), 977-1002.
  • Benoit, D., & Van der Poel, D. (2009). Benefits of quantile regression for the analysis of customer lifetime in a contractual setting: An application in financial services. Exert Systems with Applications, 36, 10475-01484.
  • Canarella, G., & Miller, S. (2015). Inflation persistence and structural breaks: The experience of inflation targeting countries and the USA. Journal of Economics Studies, 43(6), 980-1005.
  • Cioran, Z. (2014). Monetary policy, inflation and the causal relation between the inflation rate and some of the macroeconomic variables. Procedia Economics and Finance, 16, 391-401.
  • Colucci, D., & Valori, V. (2015). Stabilizing inflation in a simple monetary policy model with heterogeneous agents. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 108, 233-244.
  • Cuestas, J., & Harrison, B. (2010). Inflation persistence and nonlinearities in Central and Eastern European countries. Economic Letters, 106, 81-83.
  • Cukierman, A. (2017). Money growth and inflation: Policy lessons from a comparison of the UK since 2008 with hyperinflation Germany in the 1920s. Economic Letters, 154, 109-112.
  • Gadzinski, G., & Orlandi, F. (2004). Inflation persistence in the European Union, the Euro area and the United States. ECB Working Paper Series No. 414, November.
  • Gaffeo, E., & Canzian, G. (2011). The psychology of inflation, monetary policy and macroeconomic instability. The Journal of Socio-Economics, 40(5), 660-670.
  • Gerlach, S., & Tillman, P. (2012). Inflation targeting and inflation persistence in Asia-Pacific. Journal of Asian Economies, 23(4), 360-373.
  • Gil-Alana, L. (2011). Inflation in South Africa: A long memory approach. Economics Letters, 111(3), 207-209.
  • Gil-Alana, L., Mervar, A., & Payne, J. (2016). The stationarity of inflation in Croatia: Anti-inflation stabilization program and the change in persistence. Economic Change and Restructuring, 50(1), 45-58
  • Gupta, R., Jooste, C., & Ranjbar, O. (2017). South Africa’s inflation persistence: A quantile regression framework. Economic Change and Restructuring, (forthcoming).
  • Khadaroo A. (2005). A threshold in inflation dynamics: Evidence from emerging countries. Applied Economics, 37(6), 719-723.
  • Koenker, R., & Bassett, G. (1978). Regression Quantiles. Econometrica, 46(1), 33-50.
  • Koenker, R., & Hallock, K. (2001). Quantile regression. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15(4), 143-156.
  • Koenker, R., & Xiao, Z. (2006). Quantile autoregression. Journal of American Statistical Association, 101(475), 980-1006.
  • Manzan, S., & Zerom, D. (2015). Asymmetric quantile persistence and predictability: The case of the US inflation. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 77(2), 297-318.
  • Moore, B. (2014). Monetary policy regimes and inflation in the new-Keynesian model. Journal of Macroeconomics, 40, 323-337.
  • Mourelle, E., Cuestas, J., & Gil-Alana, L. (2011). Is there an asymmetric behaviour in African inflation? A nonlinear approach. South African Journal of Economics, 79(1), 68-90.
  • Phiri, A. (2012). Threshold effects and inflation persistence in South Africa. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 4(3), 247-269.
  • Phiri, A. (2016). Inflation persistence in African countries: Does inflation targeting matter. Economics and Business Letters, 5(3), 65-71.
  • Phiri, A. (2017). Changes in inflation persistence prior and subsequent to the subprime crisis: What are the implications for South Africa?. Journal of Reviews in Global Economics, 6, 198-207.
  • Rangasamy, L. (2009). Inflation persistence and core inflation: The case of South Africa. South African Journal of Economics, 77(3), 430-444.
  • Tsong, C., & Lee, C. (2011). Asymmetric inflation dynamics: Evidence from quantile regression analysis. Journal of Macroeconomics, 33(4), 668-680.
  • Wolters, M., & Tillman, P. (2015). The changing dynamics of US inflation persistence: A quantile regression approach. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 19(2), 161-182.

Document Type

Publication order reference

Identifiers

YADDA identifier

bwmeta1.element.mhp-d0584215-f953-4500-a5e7-752f63e6161a
JavaScript is turned off in your web browser. Turn it on to take full advantage of this site, then refresh the page.