The Relationship Between Stock Market Development and Macroeconomic Fundamentals in the Visegrad Group

• Authors: Tomáš Pražák , Daniel Stavárek

Title variants

Związek między rozwojem rynku akcji a podstawami makroekonomicznymi gospodarek państw Grupy Wyszehradzkiej

• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

This study examines the effect of specific macroeconomic factors on the stock prices of selected financial sector companies listed on the Central European Exchanges (Budapest Stock Exchange, Prague Stock Exchange, Bratislava Stock Exchange, or Warsaw Stock Exchange). We investigate the nature of the causal relationships between macroeconomic factors and stock prices. The long‑term causality, tested using the Johansen cointegration test, and the short‑run dynamics between the variables, examined using the VECM model, are explored using quarterly data from the 2005–2014 period. The short‑term causality shows the possibility of time series fluctuations; however a steady state should be achieved in the long‑term. In general, we confirmed that macroeconomic fundamentals had a negative impact on stock prices. The interest rate, which also has a negative im­pact, is the most prominent predictor of the long‑run developments. We also found very rare examples of macroeconomic variables that explain changes in stock prices within the VECM framework.

PL

W opracowaniu poddano analizie wpływ poszczególnych czynników makroekonomicznych na ceny akcji wybranych spółek z sektora finansowego, notowanych na giełdach państw Europy Środkowej (w Budapeszcie, Pradze, Bratysławie i Warszawie). Zbadano charakter związków przyczynowych między czynnikami makroekonomicznymi a cenami akcji. Zarówno przyczynowość długoterminowa, testowana za pomocą testu kointegracji Johansena, jak i krótkookresowa dynamika związków przyczynowych pomiędzy zmiennymi, analizowana przy użyciu modelu VECM, zostały zbadane z wykorzystaniem danych kwartalnych z lat 2005–2014. Przyczynowość krótkoterminowa wskazuje na możliwość wahań szeregów czasowych. Stan ustalony powinien zostać jednak osiągnięty w długim okresie. Generalnie potwierdzono, że warunki makroekonomiczne miały negatywny wpływ na ceny akcji. Stopa procentowa, która oddziałuje niekorzystnie, jest najbardziej widocznym predyktorem zmian długoterminowych. Wskazano również bardzo rzadkie przykłady zmiennych makroekonomicznych, które wyjaśniają zmiany cen akcji w modelu VECM.

Keywords

EN

stock prices; macroeconomic fundamentals; Visegrad Group; causality; VECM

PL

ceny akcji; warunki makroekonomiczne; Grupa Wyszehradzka; przyczynowość; ceny akcji; warunki makroekonomiczne; Grupa Wyszehradzka; przyczynowość

• Publisher: Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
• Journal: Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe
• Year: 2017
• Volume: 20
• Issue: 3
• Pages: 5-23

Dates

published

2017-09-30

Contributors

author

Tomáš Pražák

• Silesian University in Opava, School of Business Administration in Karviná, Department of Finance and Accounting

author

Daniel Stavárek

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Identifiers

DOI

10.1515/cer-2017-0017