The Forecast of the Number of Soldiers in the Saudi Arabian Army in Terms of Military Security

• Authors: Bartosz Kozicki , Jarosław Zelkowski , Szymon Mitkow , Mariusz Gontarczyk

Abstracts

EN

The study concerns forecasting the number of soldiers in the Saudi Arabian army based on information obtained from the website: https://data.worldbank.org (The World Bank, 9.03.2020). The research began with a comparative analysis of the number of soldiers in the armies of Saudi Arabia and Russia. The idea for a comparative analysis of the number of armies of Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation arises from Russian policy in the region of the Middle East countries, including the impact on world oil prices. The comparative analysis showed the similarities and differences in the dynamics of changes in the number of both armies dynamically. Subsequently, the primary time series data analysis on the number of Saudi Arabian troops was performed. The study selected methods for predicting raw data: Holt’s exponential smoothing and Klein’s model for the future. The next stage of the research was forecasting and the analysis and evaluation of the obtained forecasts. Klein’s model was the best forecasting model. The forecast of the number of soldiers in the Saudi Arabian army for 2020 is 251454, and for 2021, it has increased to 251006. The study ends with a summary and conclusions.

Keywords

EN

human resources policy; forecasting; the Armed Forces of Saudi Arabia; Russia’s policy; military security

• Publisher: Wydawnictwo Adam Marszałek
• Journal: Polish Political Science Yearbook
• Year: 2021
• Issue: 4 (50)
• Pages: 149-158

Dates

published

2021

Contributors

author

Bartosz Kozicki

• Military University of Technology

• https://orcid.org/000000016089952X

author

Jarosław Zelkowski

• Military University of Technology

• https://orcid.org/0000000266982938

author

Szymon Mitkow

• Military University of Technology

• https://orcid.org/0000000328452589

author

Mariusz Gontarczyk

• Military University of Technology

• https://orcid.org/0000000315124092

References

• Armstrong, M. (2007). Zarządzanie zasobami ludzkimi. Walters Lower Business.
• Cieślak, M. (2004). Prognozowanie gospodarcze. PWN.
• Cieślak, M. (Ed.). (2001). Prognozowanie gospodarcze. Metody i zastosowanie. PWN.
• Czerwiński, Z., Guzik, B. (1980). Prognozowanie ekonometryczne. PWE.
• (2019, September 20). Analitycy o ataku na Arabię Saudyjską: budżet wojskowy to nie wszystko. https://www.defence24.pl/analitycy-o-ataku-na-arabie-saudyjska-budzet-wojskowy-to-nie-wszystko
• Dittmann, P. et al. (2016). Prognozowanie w zarządzaniu przedsiębiorstwem. Wydawnictwo Nieoczywiste ‒ imprint GAB Media.
• Gajda, J.B. (2001). Prognozowania i symulacja a decyzje gospodarcze. C.H. Beck.
• Kitler, W. (2011). Bezpieczeństwo narodowe RP. Podstawowe kategorie. Uwarunkowania. System. Akademia Obrony Narodowej.
• Kozicki, B., Bryczek-Wrobel, P., and Gornikiewicz, M. (2020). The Impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic on Russia’s Economic Security: Analysis of Exchange Rates of Selected Currencies and Energy Resources. European, Research Studies Journal, 228-238. 202010.35808/ersj/1879
• Kozicki, B. et al. (2018). Cost forecast in a shipping company. Transport Means 1.
• Kucharczyk, M., TVN24. (2021, May 25). Dlaczego Arabowie przegrywają wojny. https://tvn24.pl/magazyntvn24/dlaczego-arabowie-przegrywaja-wojny,24,547
• Legucka, A. (2017, November 11). Wspołpraca Rosji z Arabią Saudyjską: potencjał i ograniczenia. Biuletyn. https://www.pism.pl/publikacje/Wsp__praca_Rosji_z_Arabi__Saudyjsk____potencja__i_ograniczenia
• Makridakis, S.G., Wheelwright, S.C., and Hyndman, R.J. (1998). Forecasting methods and applications. John Wiley and Sons.
• Matuka, A. (September 2020). COVID-19 Outbreak and US Economic Policy Uncertainty: An ARDL Approach. SSRN Electronic Journal.
• Nowak, E. (Ed.). (1998). Prognozowanie gospodarcze. A.W. Placed.
• Satomi, E. et al. (April 2020). Alocacao justa de recuros de saude escassos diante da pandemia de COVID-19 Consideracoes eticas. Einstein, 18(2), 1-5. https://journal.einstein.br/article/fair-allocation-of-scarcemedical-resources-during-covid-19-pandemic-ethical-considerations/
• Szcześniak, A. (2020, April 17). Rosja i Arabia Saudyjska – wojna, ropa i pieniądze. http://szczesniak.pl/rosja-arabia-saudyjska
• The World Bank. (2020, March 9). Armed forces personnel, total ‒ Saudi Arabia, Russian Federation. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.TOTL.P1?locations=RU-SA
• Urban, D. (2016, April 01). Assessing Saudi Arabia’s Military Might. https://www.forces.net/services/triservice/assessing-saudi-arabias-military-might
• Zhu, N., Zhang, D., Wang, W. et al. (2020, January 24). A Novel Coronavirus from Patients with Pneumonia in China, 2019. New England Journal of Medicine. 383(8), 727-733. https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2001017

Identifiers

DOI

10.15804/ppsy202147

Biblioteka Nauki

2020137