The Forecasting of Military Expenditure in Saudi Arabia in Terms of Military Security

• Authors: Bartosz Kozicki , Jarosław Zelkowski , Szymon Mitkow , Mariusz Gontarczyk

Abstracts

EN

The study attempts to forecast military expenditure in Saudi Arabia for 2020. The research began with a comparative analysis of military expenditure in Saudi Arabia and Russia between 2000–2019. For this purpose, bar charts were used on which the calculated values of the dynamics indices with a fixed (2000) and movable (previous year) base of the considered primary data were outlined. The study was preceded by constructing a multiple regression model to evaluate the impact of the increase in military expenditure in Russia on Saudi Arabia. This model shows that as military spending in Russia increases by one million dollars, military spending in Saudi Arabia increases by $ 0.085 million. Then, data on the expenditure incurred by both analyzed countries in 2020, obtained from various internet sources, was outlined. Their analysis made it possible to select only qualitative methods in the form of expert opinions for the forecast. Saudi Arabia's military expenditure forecast was $ 57 500 million.

Keywords

EN

expenditure; forecasting; Russian and Saudi Arabian policy; COVID-19; military security

• Publisher: Wydawnictwo Adam Marszałek
• Journal: Polish Political Science Yearbook
• Year: 2022
• Issue: 2 (51)
• Pages: 61-68

Dates

published

2022

Contributors

author

Bartosz Kozicki

• Military University of Technology

• https://orcid.org/000000016089952X

author

Jarosław Zelkowski

• Military University of Technology

• https://orcid.org/0000000266982938

author

Szymon Mitkow

• Military University of Technology

• https://orcid.org/0000000328452589

author

Mariusz Gontarczyk

• Military University of Technology

• https://orcid.org/0000000315124092

References

• Dittmann, P. (2016). Prognozowanie w przedsiębiorstwie. Metody i ich zastosowanie. Wydawnictwo Nieoczywiste.
• Franses, H.P., van Dijk, D., & Opschoor, A. (2014). Time series models for business and economic forecasting, Cambridge University Press.
• Grochot, A. (2020, January 28). Koronawirus. Co trzeba zrobić, kiedy zauważymy u siebie objawy? https://twojezdrowie.rmf24.pl/choroby/news-koronawirus-co-trzeba-zrobic-kiedy-zauwazymy-u-siebie-objawy,nId,4294520#crp_state=1
• Hon Fu Chan, R., Tsz Ho Lee, S., & Wong, W.-K. (2014). Technical analysis and financial asset forecasting. World Scientific.
• Karam, M.A. (2019, March 13). Saudi defence spending: 17% of 2019 annual budget, https://www.ameinfo.com/industry/industry-government/saudi-defence-budget-overview
• Kozicki, B., & Mitkow, Sz. (2020). Analysis of Human Deaths in Regard to Covid-19 Pandemic in European Countries. European Research Studies Journal, XXIII(3), 213–227. DOI: 10.35808/ersj/1878
• Kozicki, B., Waściński, T., Brzeziński, M., & Lisowska, A. (2018). Cost forecast in a shipping company. Transport Means, 1.
• Legucka, A. (2017). Współpraca Rosji z Arabią Saudyjską: potencjał i ograniczenia. Polski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych. Biuletyn, 66(1508).
• Makridakis, S.G., Wheelwright, S.C., & Hyndman, R.J. (1998). Forecasting methods and applications. John Wiley and Sons.
• Matuka, A. (2020, September). COVID-19 Outbreak and US Economic Policy Uncertainty: An ARDL Approach. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3685346
• Owsiak, S. (2015). Finanse. Polskie Wydawnictwo Ekonomiczne.
• Rabej, M. (2018). Analizy statystyczne z programami Statistica i Exel. Helion.
• (2020, March 9). Saudi Arabia budget highlights, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-budget-highlights/highlights-saudi-arabia-releases-272-billion-budget-for-2020-idUSKBN1YD1UG
• Satomi, E., et al. (April 2020). Alocação justa de recuros de saúde escassos diante da pandemia de COVID-19 Considerações éticas. Einstein, 18(2), 1–5. https://journal.einstein.br/article/fair-allocation-of-scarce-medical-resources-during-covid-19-pandemic-ethical-considerations
• Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex
• Trading economy. (2020, March 9), https://tradingeconomics.com
• Zhu, N., Zhang, D., Wang, W., Li, X., Yang, B., Song, J., et al. (2020, January 24). A Novel Coronavirus from Patients with Pneumonia in China, 2019. New England Journal of Medicine, 383(8), 727–733. https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2001017

Identifiers

DOI

10.15804/ppsy202204

Biblioteka Nauki

2120092