Chosen problems of forecasting social phenomena

• Authors: Łukasz Donaj

Abstracts

EN

Forecasting is understood as predicting based on specific trustworthy data. Futurology in turn is the science of predicting the future. In the course of forecasting, we also aim to determine the conditions for the evolution of the analysed phenomenon. A forecast prepared for this purpose must take account of the known relationships, types, and intensity of external influences and internal changes expected in the development of the phenomenon under investigation. Forecasting social phenomena can in many ways be difficult. The reason is that it is the nature of these phenomena to be closely and multilaterally linked with physical, biological, and other social phenomena. Thus, making judgements about the future course of social phenomena, which, unlike physical phenomena based on “strong” science, are dependent on a large number of factors with varying degrees of stability is a complex task. The aim of the publication is an analysis of selected issues that affect predicting social phenomena, hence the paper discusses issues such as qualitative character of social science laws; Oedipus effect; syndromatic nature of social phenomena; evolving nature of social reality; substantive rationality and methodological rationality etc.

• Publisher: Wydawnictwo Adam Marszałek
• Journal: Reality of Politics
• Year: 2012
• Issue: 3
• Pages: 34-42

Dates

published

2012

Contributors

author

Łukasz Donaj

• Uniwersytet im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu

Identifiers

DOI

10.15804/rop201203

Biblioteka Nauki

2041641