Potencjał nuklearny Iranu i możliwe konsekwencje polityczne dla Bliskiego Wschodu

• Authors: Kamila Rezmer-Płotka

Title variants

EN

Iran’s Nuclear Potential and Its Political Implications for the Middle-East

RU

Ядерный потенциал Ирана и возможные политические последствия для Ближнего Востока

Abstracts

RU

Среди множества угроз современному миру обязательно следует упомянуть ядерное оружие. Хотя правители осознают катастрофические последствия его использования, все еще прилагаются усилия по развитию ядерного потенциала. Выход США из ядерной сделки побудил Иран активизировать свои исследования и разработки и увеличить запасы ядерного топлива. Чтобы рассмотреть возможные политические последствия расширения ядерного арсенала Ирана, были кратко рассмотрены наиболее важные события в истории Ирана, связанные с ядерным оружием. В статье рассматриваются только наиболее важные возможные политические последствия. Выводы: два крайних сценария кажутся наиболее вероятными: ядерное оружие позволит принести стабильность и мир в регион, а также создать противовес США и поле для переговоров. Психологический и рациональный механизм, соответствующий концепции MAD, будет работать, или, наоборот, озабоченность США, связанная, в частности, с господством Ирана в регионе и давлением на других с целью покупки оружия.

EN

Among many threats of the contemporary world, nuclear weapons should certainly be mentioned. While governments are aware of the disastrous consequences of their use, efforts are still being made to develop nuclear potential. The US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement has prompted Iran to step up its research and development efforts and increase its stockpile of nuclear fuel. To consider possible political consequences of Iran’s expansion of nuclear arsenal, the most significant developments in Iranian history relating to nuclear weapons have been followed. The article focuses solely on the most significant possible political consequences. Conclusion: two extreme scenarios seem most likely: nuclear weapons would provide stability and peace in the region and provide a counterbalance to the US and the negotiating field. A psychological and rational mechanism of the MAD concept would work, or on the contrary, the US concerns about Iran’s dominance in the region and pressure on others to buy weapons would realize.

Keywords

EN

Iran; Middle East; political consequences; nuclear weapons

RU

Иран; Ближний Восток; политические последствия; ядерное оружие

• Publisher: Wydawnictwo Adam Marszałek
• Journal: Studia Orientalne
• Year: 2021
• Issue: 1(19)
• Pages: 43-56

Dates

published

2021

Contributors

author

Kamila Rezmer-Płotka

• Uniwersytet Mikołaja Kopernika w Toruniu

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Identifiers

DOI

10.15804/so2021103

Biblioteka Nauki

1934159