PL EN


2013 | 47 | 4 |
Article title

Wycena heurystyczna a efektywność inwestycji inwestorów indywidualnych

Authors
Content
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Languages of publication
EN
Abstracts
EN
The paper presents a  concept of simplified valuation models and tests their usefulness in application by individual investors at the Polish stock market over 2000–2013. It is discussed whether it would be rational to combine common fundamental valuation methods of multiples and DCF, preserving the relative simplicity of multiples as well as complexity and consistency of discounted cash flows to provide useful hybrid tool even when individual investors follow behavioral heuristics and simplifications while making investment decisions. Results of experiments indicate that use of proposed valuation methods wouldn’t have an unequivocal impact on investment strategy of irrational individual investors with quite low average improvements of annual returns (from 5.2% to 10.3% extra return) only in about half of all 415 analyzed stocks.
PL
W artykule przedstawiono koncepcję modeli uproszczonej wyceny aktywów finansowych i  sprawdzono możliwość ich wykorzystania w  warunkach polskiego rynku giełdowego w  latach 2000–2013. Dyskusji została poddana możliwość racjonalnego połączenia dwóch powszechnie wykorzystywanych podejść do wyceny akcji stosowanych w  praktyce – metody mnożnikowej i  metody DCF – w  taki sposób, aby udało się zachować względną prostotę pierwszej z  nich oraz jednocześnie spójność i  złożoność drugiej, zapewniając wiarygodne wykorzystanie modeli nawet wtedy, gdy inwestorzy ulegają behawioralnym heurystykom i  uproszczeniom przy podejmowaniu decyzji inwestycyjnych. Wyniki eksperymentów zaproponowanych modeli wskazują, że w  zależności od wycenianego instrumentu możliwości wykorzystania modelu są różne, dając dodatkowo od 5,2% do 10,3% dodatkowego zwrotu dla połowy z  415 analizowanych spółek.
Year
Volume
47
Issue
4
Physical description
Dates
published
2013
online
2015-07-23
Contributors
author
References
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Document Type
Publication order reference
Identifiers
YADDA identifier
bwmeta1.element.ojs-doi-10_17951_h_2013_47_4_67
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