Zastosowanie zmienności implikowanej strategii risk reversal dla opcji na kurs walutowy do oceny oczekiwań uczestników rynku

• Authors: Katarzyna Czech
• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

Measures of volatility implied in option prices can provide important insight into market participants’ perception about the future price movement of the underlying asset. The aim of the paper is to show the application of foreign-exchange options’ 25-delta risk reversals to evaluate skewness of market expectations on future changes in currency value. It has been shown that different events, such as the United States subprime mortgage crisis, the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the 2015 Pacific typhoon or the 2016 Brexit referendum, highly affected market view about the balance of risk between a large appreciation and a large depreciation of the currency. In the analysed period, the market quotes on risk reversals were substantially changing.

PL

Mierniki oparte na zmienności implikowanej opcji są źródłem informacji na temat nastrojów uczestników rynku czy też zmian w ich postrzeganiu ryzyka. Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie zastosowania zmienności implikowanej strategii 25-delta risk reversal dla opcji na kurs walutowy w ocenie oczekiwań uczestników rynku odnośnie do kształtowania się przeszłej wartości waluty. Pokazano, jak różne wydarzenia (takie jak kryzys na rynku kredytów hipotecznych subprime w USA, upadek banku Lehman Brothers, potężny tajfun na Pacyfiku, referendum w sprawie wyjścia Wielkiej Brytanii z Unii Europejskiej) wpłynęły na oczekiwania rynku odnośnie do kształtowania się kursów walutowych w przyszłości. Co ciekawe, w analizowanym okresie poziom zmienności implikowanej 25-delta risk reversal ulegał gwałtownym zmianom.

Keywords

EN

foreign exchange market; 25-delta risk reversal; currency options; carry trade speculation strategies; Brexit

PL

rynek walutowy; strategia 25-delta risk reversal; opcje walutowe; strategie spekulacyjne carry trade; Brexit

• Publisher: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Marii Curie-Skłodowskiej
• Journal: Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska, sectio H – Oeconomia
• Year: 2017
• Volume: 51
• Issue: 6

Dates

published

2017

online

2018-02-27

Contributors

author

Katarzyna Czech

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Identifiers

DOI

10.17951/h.2017.51.6.63