A Panel Analysis of Trade Gravity between Pakistan and South Asian Countries

• Authors: Waheed Ullah Jan , Mahmood Shah

Title variants

Analiza panelowa grawitacji handlu między Pakistanem a krajami Azji Południowej

• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

This paper attempts to examine Pakistan’s trade patterns with South Asian countries by using a gravity model of trade. The main objective of the study is to quantify the long‑run impacts of gravity variables. To achieve this objective, a panel data set for the period 2003 to 2017 has been used. Based on the mixed evidence of the results of panel unit root tests, Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and Panel Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) techniques are applied. The outcome of the PMG and Panel DOLS models justifies the theoretical background of the gravity model and suggests that all the basic gravity variables haveusual signs. The RGDPs and population of both Pakistan and the partner country have a positive impact on their bilateral trade. On the other hand, the distance between the two trading countries and the exchange rate have a negative impact on bilateral trade.The uniqueness of this study is that it measures the impacts of qualitative variables along with basic gravity variables. Language similarities and common borders have a positive impact on bilateral trade. Pakistan has borders with India and Afghanistan, but their trade relations are not worth mentioning. The military conflicts between Pakistan and India, and the political suspicions between Pakistan and Afghanistan hinder their trade relations.

PL

W artykule podjęto próbę zbadania wzorców handlowych widocznych w relacjach Pakistanu z krajami Azji Południowej przy użyciu grawitacyjnego modelu handlu. Głównym celem badania było ilościowe określenie długoterminowego wpływu zmiennych grawitacyjnych. Aby osiągnąć ten cel, wykorzystano zestaw danych panelowych dla lat 2003–2017. Ponieważ wyniki testów panelowych pierwiastka jednostkowego były niewiarygodne, zastosowano techniki Pooled Mean Group (PMG) i Panel Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS). Wyniki modeli PMG i Panel DOLS uzasadniają teoretyczne podstawy modelu grawitacyjnego i sugerują, że wszystkie podstawowe zmienne grawitacyjne mają typowe znaki. Realny PKB i liczba ludności zarówno Pakistanu, jak i kraju partnerskiego mają pozytywny wpływ na ich handel dwustronny. Z drugiej strony odległość między dwoma krajami dokonującymi wymiany handlowej oraz kurs walutowy mają negatywny wpływ na handel dwustronny. Wyjątkowość tego badania polega na tym, że mierzy ono jednocześnie wpływ zmiennych jakościowych oraz podstawowych zmiennych grawitacyjnych. Podobieństwa językowe i wspólne granice mają pozytywny wpływ na handel dwustronny. Jednakże, choć Pakistan graniczy z Indiami i Afganistanem, ich relacje handlowe nie są istotne. Konflikty zbrojne między Pakistanem a Indiami oraz polityczna podejrzliwość w relacjach Pakistanu z Afganistanem komplikują ich stosunki handlowe.

Keywords

EN

South Asia; Pakistan; gravity model; exchange rate; population

PL

Azja Południowa; Pakistan; model grawitacyjny; kurs walutowy; liczba ludności; Azja Południowa; Pakistan; model grawitacyjny; kurs walutowy; liczba ludności

• Publisher: Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
• Journal: Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe
• Year: 2020
• Volume: 23
• Issue: 4
• Pages: 187-207

Dates

published

2020-12-30

Contributors

author

Waheed Ullah Jan

• Ph.D., Research Scholar, Department of Economics, Gomal University Dera Ismail Khan, Pakistan

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7615-9670

author

Mahmood Shah

• Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Gomal University, Dera Ismail Khan, Pakistan

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Identifiers

DOI

10.18778/1508-2008.23.34