Forecasting of the Employment Rate in the EU ICT Field

• Authors: Tetiana Zatonatska , Yuriy Klapkiv , Oleksandr Dluhopolskyi , Olha Fedirko

Title variants

PL

Prognozowanie stopy zatrudnienia w obszarze ICT w Unii Europejskiej

Abstracts

PL

Zakorzeniona w ostatnim dziesięcioleciu tendencja do wdrażania technologii informacyjno‑komunikacyjnych w przedsiębiorstwach UE spowodowała wstrząsające zmiany na rynku pracy. Ponieważ zapotrzebowanie na personel ICT rośnie, nadal istnieje potrzeba stworzenia kompleksowej strategii skutecznego zarządzania specjalistami ICT na potrzeby restrukturyzacji przedsiębiorstw. Celem badań jest identyfikacja procesów transferu pomiędzy nisko‑ i wysoko wykwalifikowanym personelem ICT oraz przewidywanie wskaźnika zatrudnienia w dziedzinie ICT do 2025 r. W badaniach wykorzystano łańcuch Markowa jako metodę analizy. W OPARCIU O dane statystyczne dotyczące wskaźnika zatrudnienia personelu ICT według poziomu wykształcenia opracowano model łańcucha Markowa, który opisuje procesy personelu ICT o różnym poziomie wykształcenia. Do analizy wykorzystano dane z okresu 2005–2019 do zbudowania prognozy ze względu na brak najnowszych informacji. W efekcie udowodniono, że przy pomocy procesów digitalizacji stopa zatrudnienia pracowników ICT w 2025 r. wzrośnie o 64% w porównaniu z danymi z 2018 r. Badania potwierdziły, że personel ICT będzie bardzo potrzebny do 2023 r., a co ważne, zapotrzebowanie na pracowników o niskich i średnich kwalifikacjach będzie rosło, jak i na wysoko wykwalifikowanych. Stopa zatrudnienia w dziedzinie ICT będzie na wyższym poziomie w 2022 r., ponieważ sprzyjające warunki ekonomiczne dla przyjęcia ICT mu pomogą. Rosnące zapotrzebowanie na personel ICT o niskim i średnim poziomie kwalifikacji będzie zapewnione przez personel przenoszący procesy, przedsiębiorstwa i cyfryzację rządu. Największy wzrost zatrudnienia personelu ICT nastąpi do 2023 r., a w przyszłości wzrost zatrudnienia spowolni. Główną przeszkodą dla wzrostu zatrudnienia poprzez cyfryzację jest globalny kryzys gospodarczy. Wartością dodaną analizy jest prognoza, że największy wzrost zatrudnienia personelu ICT nastąpi do 2023 roku, ale po będzie mało miejsce spowolnienie wzrostu zatrudnienia. Główną przeszkodą we wzroście zatrudnienia poprzez cyfryzację jest światowy kryzys gospodarczy z różnych powodów.

EN

The ingrained tendency to implement information and communication technologies (ICT) in EU enterprises over the last decade has caused dramatic changes in the labor market. Since the demand for ICT personnel is growing, there is still a need to create a comprehensive strategy to effectively manage ICT specialists when restructuring enterprises. The aim of the research is to identify transferring processes between low‑ and high‑skilled ICT personnel and predict the employment rate in the ICT field until 2025. A Markov chain was used as the method of analysis. Using statistical data about the employment rate of ICT personnel by education attainment level, we have built a Markov chain model that describes the processes of ICT personnel with different levels of education. Data from 2005 to 2019 was used to build forecasting because of the absence of the latest information. We demonstrate that with the help of digitalization, the employment rate of ICT staff in 2025 will increase by 64% compared to 2018. The research verifies that ICT personnel will be in great demand until 2023 and, importantly, low‑ and middle‑skilled personnel will be in demand, as well as high‑skilled personnel. The employment rate in the ICT field will be at its highest level in 2022 as the favorable economic conditions for ICT adoption will help it. The growing demand for low‑ and medium‑skilled ICT staff are met both by staff relocation processes and by the increasing digitalization of business units and public sector institutions. The added value of the analysis is the prediction that the largest growth in ICT personnel employment will occur by 2023, but employment growth will slow down after that. The main obstacle to employment growth through digitalization is the global economic crisis because of different reasons.

Keywords

PL

wdrożenie ICT; cyfryzacja; zarządzanie zatrudnieniem; popyt na pracę; łańcuch Markowa

EN

ICT adoption; digitalization; employment management; labor demand; Markov chain

• Publisher: Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
• Journal: Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe
• Year: 2022
• Volume: 25
• Issue: 3
• Pages: 7-25

Dates

published

2022

Contributors

author

Tetiana Zatonatska

• Doctor of Sc. (Economics), Professor, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine

• https://orcid.org/0000000191970560

author

Yuriy Klapkiv

• Doctor of Sc. (Economics), Associate Professor, University of Lodz, Lodz, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000000297715357

author

Oleksandr Dluhopolskyi

• Doctor of Sc. (Economics), Professor, West Ukrainian National University, Ternopil, Ukraine; Higher School of Economics and Innovation (WSEI), Lublin, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000000220408762

author

Olha Fedirko

• Data Scientist, Empower Company, Kyiv, Ukraine

• https://orcid.org/0000000319559034

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Identifiers

DOI

10.18778/1508-2008.25.19

Biblioteka Nauki

2106295