Escalation Ladder and the Game of Chances in the Ukraine war of 2022

• Authors: Grzegorz Nycz

Title variants

PL

Drabina eskalacyjna a gra losów w ukraińskiej wojnie 2022 roku

Abstracts

PL

Artykuł odnosi się do najnowszych wydarzeń, które rozegrały się w trakcie wojny w Ukrainie w latach 2022–2023, analizowanych z perspektywy wybranych spostrzeżeń pochodzących z badań nad odstraszaniem, w szczególności w ramach koncepcji drabiny eskalacyjnej. Powodem publikacji jest chęć zwrócenia uwagi na niebezpieczne kroki eskalacyjne w kontekście rozpętanej przez Putina wojny rosyjsko-ukraińskiej, w tym zniesienie kontroli zbrojeń strategicznych i rozmieszczenie taktycznej broni jądrowej w sąsiedztwie UE. Działania reżimu Władymira Putina zmierzające do przejęcia największej ukraińskiej elektrowni jądrowej lub uzyskania nad nią kontroli wzbudziły międzynarodową dyskusję na temat poważnego zagrożenia humanitarnego. Debata na temat odstraszania sprzed 1989 r. może wnieść ważną perspektywę badawczą, której dotychczas zabrakło w ramach analizy nowej zimnej wojny. W szczególności, rozwój sytuacji w 2023 r. w zakresie prowadzenia wojny w Ukrainie przy wsparciu Zachodu zapobiegającego realizacji scenariusza kryzysu nuklearnego (wykorzystanie arsenału taktycznego) można analizować w kontekście wcześniejszych koncepcji wojny lokalnej (lata 60.), a także dalszych opracowań dotyczących warunków wzajemnej podatności na zagrożenia.

EN

The paper refers to the most recent developments during the 2022–2023 Ukraine war, analysed from the perspective of selected insights derived from deterrence studies, most notably the escalation ladder. The reason for the publication is to point out dangerous escalatory steps in the context of Putin’s Russia-Ukrainian war, including the abolishment of strategic arms control and tactical nuclear weapons deployment in the EU neighbourhood. V. Putin’s regime’s steps towards seizure or control of Ukraine’s largest nuclear power plant were discussed internationally as a severe humanitarian hazard. The pre-1989 deterrence debate could add a vital research perspective missing in the analytic frames of the New Cold War. Notably, the developments of the 2023 conduct of the Ukraine war with the support of the West countering the impact of a nuclear crisis scenario (tactical arsenal employment) could be analysed in the context of earlier concepts of limited war (1960s), as well as further elaborations on conditions of mutual vulnerability.

Keywords

PL

Nowa zimna wojna; konflikt w Ukrainie; drabina eskalacyjna

EN

The New Cold War; Ukrainian conflict; escalation ladder

• Publisher: Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
• Journal: International Studies. Interdisciplinary Political and Cultural Journal
• Year: 2022
• Volume: 30
• Issue: 2
• Pages: 87-101

Dates

published

2022

Contributors

author

Grzegorz Nycz

• Pedagogical University of Cracow

• https://orcid.org/0000000265794230

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Identifiers

DOI

10.18778/1641-4233.30.05

Biblioteka Nauki

31341471