Powiązania przyczynowo-skutkowe zmian płac i wzrostu gospodarczego

• Authors: Grzegorz Przekota

Title variants

EN

Cause-Effect Relationships between Changes in Compensation and Economic Growth

Abstracts

EN

The purpose of the article. Compensation for work and economic growth are two economic variables that economists pay particular attention to. Many theories have been developed to link these quantities in cause-and-effect relationships. These theories often differ in determining which of these quantities is the cause and which is the effect. The research carried out in this article examines this relationship. The aim of the paper was to determine the direction and strength of causality in the relationship between wages and economic growth. To test the hypothesis that the relationship between changes in the level of wages and the rate of economic growth is significant and that the direction of this relationship is determined by time lags. Methodology. The research is based on annual data on the share of compensation in GDP and GDP dynamics for OECD countries for the years 2003–2021. Correlation analysis and multilevel modelling are used. Annual averages for the whole group of countries were analysed, as well as correlations between each country's time series individually and together in a multilevel analysis model. In order to eliminate spurious correlations, the analysis was performed on size increments. Results of the research. It was found that current wage increases have a depressing effect on current eco-nomic growth, while current economic growth has a stimulating effect on future wage increases. Such findings could provide the basis for government programmes aimed at stimulating the economy rather than regulating wages.

PL

Cel artykułu. Wynagrodzenia za pracę oraz wzrost gospodarczy to dwie wielkości ekonomiczne będące pod szczególną uwagą ekonomistów. Powstało wiele teorii wiążących ze sobą te wielkości w zależności przyczynowo-skutkowej. Teorie te często różnią się określeniem, która z tych wielkości jest przyczyną, a która skutkiem. Badania przeprowadzone w niniejszej pracy dotyczą tego kontekstu. Jako cel artykułu przyjęto określenie kierunku i siły zależności przyczynowo-skutkowej w relacji wynagrodzeń i wzrostu gospodarczego. Weryfikacji podlega hipoteza, że powiązanie zmian w poziomie wynagrodzeń i tempie wzrostu gospodarczego jest istotne, a kierunek tej zależności jest wyznaczany przez opóźnienia czasowe. Metoda badawcza. Badania oparto na danych rocznych dotyczących wskaźnika udziału wynagrodzeń w PKB oraz dynamiki PKB dla krajów OECD za lata 2003–2021. W opisie zastosowano analizę korelacji oraz modelowanie wielopoziomowe. Analizowano wartości średnioroczne dotyczące całej grupy krajów, powiązania korelacyjne szeregów czasowych każdego kraju indywidualnie oraz łącznie w modelu analizy wielopoziomowej. W celu wyeliminowania korelacji pozornych, analizę przeprowadzono na przyrostach wielkości. Wyniki badań. Ustalono, że bieżące wzrosty wynagrodzeń działają hamująco na bieżący wzrost gospodarczy, natomiast bieżący wzrost gospodarczy działa stymulująco na przyszłe wzrosty wynagrodzeń. Takie wyniki mogą być podstawą tworzenia programów rządowych, nastawianych na stymulowanie gospodarki, zamiast regulacji płac.

Keywords

PL

płace; wzrost gospodarczy; PKB; przyczynowość; modelowanie wielopoziomowe

EN

work compensation; economic growth; GDP; causality; multilevel modelling

• Publisher: Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
• Journal: Finanse i Prawo Finansowe
• Year: 2024
• Volume: 1
• Issue: 41

Dates

published

2024

Contributors

author

Grzegorz Przekota

• Politechnika Koszalińska

• https://orcid.org/0000000291732658

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Identifiers

DOI

10.18778/2391-6478.1.41.04

Biblioteka Nauki

36083546