Determinants of Pakistan’s Exports: An Econometric Analysis

• Authors: Arshad Ullah Jadoon , Yangda Guang , Anwar Ahmad , Sajad Ali

Title variants

Determinanty eksportu Pakistanu: analiza ekonometryczna

• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

The research investigated the determinants of Pakistan’s exports by using time series data from 1990–2016. Certain econometric tests were also applied to check cointegration among variables. A unit root test was used to check the stationarity of selected variables. After the stationarity of the data, a vector error correction model is used to estimate the effect of regressors, like foreign direct investment, gross domestic product, employment level, and consumption expenditures on a dependent variable, i.e. exports in the short run. The result shows the positive relationships that foreign direct investment, gross domestic product and employment level have on exports, and the adverse impact of consumption expenditures on the dependent variable. The study uses Johansen’s cointegration test for the long run. The results show that all the variables are co‑integrated in the long run. It is suggested that the government should encourage foreign direct investment and gross domestic product, which would help accelerate Pakistan’s exports. It is also suggested that whenever policymakers provide a trade policy, in particular, in relation to exports, then the adverse effect of exchange rate depreciation, external debt burdens, taxes, sanctions and protectionism should be quantified, and necessary measures be suggested so as to minimize any repercussions.

PL

Artykuł przedstawia wyniki badania determinant eksportu Pakistanu, dokonanego przy wykorzystaniu danych szeregów czasowych z lat 1990–2016. Zastosowano również wybrane testy ekonometryczne w celu sprawdzenia kointegracji zmiennych. Do sprawdzenia stacjonarności wybranych zmiennych wykorzystano test pierwiastka jednostkowego. Po sprawdzeniu stacjonarności danych stosuje się model wektorowej korekty błędem w celu oszacowania wpływu regresorów, takich jak: bezpośrednie inwestycje zagraniczne, produkt krajowy brutto, poziom zatrudnienia i wydatki konsumpcyjne, na zmienną zależną, tj. eksport, w krótkim okresie. Wynik badania pokazuje pozytywny wpływ bezpośrednich inwestycji zagranicznych, produktu krajowego brutto i poziomu zatrudnienia na eksport oraz niekorzystny wpływ wydatków konsumpcyjnych na zmienną zależną. W badaniu wykorzystano test kointegracji Johansena dla długiego okresu. Wyniki testu wskazują, że w długim okresie wszystkie zmienne są skointegrowane. Sugeruje się, że rząd powinien wspierać bezpośrednie inwestycje zagraniczne i wzrost produktu krajowego brutto, co przyczyniłoby się do wzrostu eksportu Pakistanu. Sugeruje się również aby prowadząc politykę handlową, w szczególności w odniesieniu do eksportu, zawsze ilościowo określać niekorzystny wpływ deprecjacji kursu walutowego, obciążenia długiem zewnętrznym, podatków, sankcji i protekcjonizmu, a także proponować niezbędne działania służące zminimalizowaniu możliwych negatywnych skutków.

Keywords

EN

Exports; GDP; VECM; FDI

PL

eksport; PKB; VECM; FDI; eksport; PKB; VECM; FDI

• Publisher: Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
• Journal: Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe
• Year: 2018
• Volume: 21
• Issue: 3
• Pages: 95-108

Dates

published

2018-09-18

Contributors

author

Arshad Ullah Jadoon

• Research Scholar, School of Economics, Northeast Normal University Jilin, Changchun, China

author

Yangda Guang

• Professor and Doctoral supervisor, School of Economics, Northeast Normal University Jilin, Changchun, China

author

Anwar Ahmad

• Research Scholar, Department of Economics, Islamia University, Peshawar, Pakistan

author

Sajad Ali

• Lecturer Higher Education Department, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Peshawar, Pakistan

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Identifiers

DOI

10.2478/cer-2018-0021