Estimating the Vulnerability of Aviation Operational Stages to Adverse Incidents Based on Civil Aviation Incidents

• Authors: Adrian Gill , Anna Kobaszyńska-Twardowska

Abstracts

EN

Many safety management processes are conducted using vulnerability measures. It was assumed that such a measure would also be applicable to aviation operational stages, providing an innovative approach to their assessment. However, the research problem generated the necessity of adopting a new definition and mathematical model of vulnerability measure. An analysis of the literature indicated that vulnerability is most commonly a probabilistic measure based on conditional probability, and it can be obtained from information on recorded aviation incidents. The specificity of the analysis area showed that an additional component of vulnerability concerning the diversity of incident causes would need to be considered. This component affects both the severity and frequency of incidents but can also be problematic, for example, in the context of organizing safety systems. Therefore, the aim of this article was to develop and present a mathematical model of the new vulnerability measure for aviation operational stages to adverse incidents in civil aviation systems and to present the results of its estimations. The new model of vulnerability measure presented in this article captures the component related to the diversity of incident causes in the form of an original diversity coefficient based on species diversity measures. The presented measure is not intended to replace the ones currently used but to complement the resources of available safety management tools. The mathematical vulnerability model was prepared to be easily modified if necessary (by adopting other functions), but based on two variables reflecting vulnerability. The results of estimating the vulnerability of selected aviation operational stages according to the developed vulnerability measure show that it is possible to assess these stages in terms of vulnerability to various classes of aviation incidents. The obtained results suggest the potential applicability of this measure to other research problems.

Keywords

EN

civil aviation; incident; safety

PL

lotnictwo cywilne; incydent; bezpieczeństwo

• Publisher: Centrum Rzeczoznawstwa Budowlanego Sp. z o.o.
• Journal: Safety & Defense
• Year: 2024
• Volume: 1
• Pages: 14-24

Dates

published

2024

Contributors

author

Adrian Gill

• Poznan University of Technology, Poznań, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000000226554584

author

Anna Kobaszyńska-Twardowska

• Poznan University of Technology, Poznań, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000000230878119

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Identifiers

DOI

10.37105/sd.221

Biblioteka Nauki

58906178