Full-text resources of CEJSH and other databases are now available in the new Library of Science.
Visit https://bibliotekanauki.pl

PL EN


2023 | XX | 1 | 13-42

Article title

What the Russian war in Ukraine means for the Middle East?

Authors

Content

Title variants

Languages of publication

Abstracts

EN
This article refers to the impact the war in Ukraine had on the policy of the Middle East countries in the international and domestic aspects and what development of events can be expected in this connection. The Middle East countries reacted quickly to the war in Ukraine; most condemned Russia’s aggression. However, none sided with Ukraine, and Iran firmly sided with Russia. How to explain it? Also, Arab public opinion did not accept the Western narrative about the causes of the war in Ukraine. Was it the result of Russian propaganda, or were there more profound reasons? Washington strongly pressured its Middle Eastern allies to move away from their policy of neutrality. Still, a year after the aggression, the Middle East not only continued to maintain relations with Russia but also expanded its scope. Was it the result of the rejection of American paternalism or the greater autonomy of the region’s countries in the conditions of multipolarity in international relations? The article tries to explain these questions within the methodology and terminology of constructing scenarios of future trends in international relations.

Year

Volume

XX

Issue

1

Pages

13-42

Physical description

Dates

published
2023

Contributors

  • Andrzej Frycz Modrzewski Krakow University

References

  • Abu Amer A., “Israel is gradually taking Ukraine’s side in the war against Russia”, Middle East Monitor, 28.02.2023, www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230228-israel-is-graduallytaking-ukraines-side-in-the-war-against-russia [accessed: 26.06.2023].
  • Abu Sneineh M., “Middle East turns arms exporter as combat drones take flight in Europe”, Middle East Eye, 31.10.2022, www.middleeasteye.net/news/middle-east-arms-exporter-combat-drones-take-flight-europe [accessed: 15.04.2023].
  • Abu Sneineh M., “Russia-Ukraine war: How soaring oil prices will be felt in the Middle East”, Middle East Eye, 4.03.2022, www.middleeasteye.net/news/russia-ukraine-warsoaring-oil-prices-middle-east-felt-how [accessed: 12.04.2023].
  • Abu Sneineh M., “Russia-Ukraine war: Seven ways it shaped the Middle East and North Africa”, Middle East Eye, 23.02.2023, www.middleeasteye.net/news/russia-ukrainewar-middle-east-north-africa-shaped [accessed: 12.04.2023].
  • Adar S. et al., “The War in Ukraine and Its Impact on Syria”, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, no. 32, April 2022, pp. 1–8.
  • Aligica P.D., “Analytic Narratives and Scenario Building”, Futures Research Quarterly, vol. 19, no. 2, Summer 2003, pp. 57–71.
  • Aljazeera Staff, “Arab League brings Syria back into its fold after 12 years”, Aljazeera, 7.05.2023, www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/7/arab-league-agrees-to-bring-syriaback-into-its-fold [accessed: 5.07.2023].
  • Arab News Staff, “Poll finds that Arab street has no stance on Russia-Ukraine conflict”, Arab News, 31.05.2022, www.arabnews.com/node/2092841/jserrors/page_view_timing/aggregate [accessed: 5.07.2023].
  • Arria M., “Biden administration says IHRA definition of antisemitism is ‘gold standard’”, Mondoweiss, 29.06.2021, https://mondoweiss.net/2021/06/biden-administrationsays-ihra-definition-of-antisemitism-is-gold-standard [accessed: 14.06.2023].
  • Best P., “State Department approves potential sale of 300 Patriot missiles to Saudi Arabia”, Fox News, 2.08.2022, www.foxnews.com/world/state-department-approves-potentialsale-300-patriot-missiles-saudi-arabia [accessed: 11.04.2023].
  • Bishara M., “The Middle East: Goodbye America, hello China?”, Aljazeera, 6.06.2023, www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/6/6/the-middle-east-goodbye-america-hello-china [accessed: 5.07.2023].
  • Blinken A.J., Secretary of State, “Promoting Accountability for Human Rights Abuses Perpetrated by the Governments of Russia and Belarus”, Statement, U.S. State Department, 15.03.2022, www.state.gov/promoting-accountability-for-human-rights-abuses-perpetrated-by-the-governments-of-russia-and-belarus [accessed: 28.03.2022].
  • Blinken A.J., Secretary of State, “The United States Opposes the ICC Investigation into the Palestinian Situation”, Statement, U.S. State Department, 3.03.2021, www.state.gov/the-united-states-opwwwposes-the-icc-investigation-into-the-palestinian-situation [accessed: 14.06.2023].
  • Borshchevskaya A., “Russia’s Disinformation Machine Has a Middle East Advantage”, Foreign Policy, 23.03.2023, https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/23/russia-ukraine-wardisinformation-middle-east-rt-sputnik-arabic [accessed: 23.06.2023].
  • Cook J., “Russia-Ukraine war: A different invasion, the West’s same ‘madman’ script”, Middle East Eye, 28.02.2022, www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/russia-ukraine-war-invasion-madman-script-same [accessed: 18.11.2023].
  • Cook J., “Russia-Ukraine war: How the US paved the way to Moscow’s invasion”, Middle East Eye, 10.01.2023, www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/russia-ukraine-us-invasionpaved-how [accessed: 12.06.2023].
  • Cook S.A., “The Deeper Reason Netanyahu Won’t Arm Ukraine Against Russia”, Foreign Policy, 6.02.2023, https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/06/israel-ukraine-war-russiahawk-air-defense-netanyahu [accessed: 20.06.2023].
  • Downey C., “State Department Says It ‘Firmly Rejects’ BDS Movement amid Ben & Jerry’s Israel Withdrawal”, yahoo!news, 21.07.2021, https://news.yahoo.com/statedepartment-says-firmly-rejects-013914204.html?guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALm6xOjv1ooy6tO5WMIhhFyQ8Zo1WK6HfAQs0Z2u7oAVF7NTQ6B4NbyZKLE143QwRaCMwl0jddQD7heZmoTiHkK4xDILwzU5AR8cJIjCdj58G5QZjwCyByNAybaCMFrcrGbQTkxrzvVj7xqY0aqP4INKxyMf W4fhTT8wfwY0vN29&guccounter=2 [accessed: 14.06.2023].
  • Dugit-Gros L. et al., “After Ukraine: Russia’s Potential Military and Nuclear Compensation to Iran”, Policy Analysis/Policy Watch 3693, 20.01.2023, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/after-ukraine-russias-potential-military-and-nuclear-compensation-iran [accessed: 14.06.2023].
  • “EU Statement regarding Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified military aggression against Ukraine”, European Union. External Action, 28.02.2022, www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/eu-statement-regarding-russia%E2%80%99s-unprovoked-and-unjustified-militaryaggression-against-ukraine_en [accessed: 7.07.2023].
  • Farooq U.A., “Outraged US looks for ways to break up Opec, reassess Saudi ties”, Middle East Eye, 11.10.2022, www.middleeasteye.net/news/outraged-us-looks-ways-breakopec-reassess-saudi-ties [accessed: 16.04.2023].
  • Filiu J.-P., “Why Israel still refuses to give military aid to Ukraine”, Le Monde, 15.05.2023, www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/05/15/why-israe”l-still-refuses-togive-military-aid-to-ukraine_6026664_4.html [accessed: 3.06.2023].
  • Finnis A., “Who voted against the UN vote on Ukraine? Results in full and which countries abstained on Russia withdrawalnited Nations”, News World, 24.02.2022, https://inews.co.uk/news/world/un-vote-ukraine-who-voted-against-results-which-countries-abstained-russia-2170599 [accessed: 30.03.2022].
  • Forgey Q., Hooper K., “Biden fist bump with MBS triggers backlash”, Politico, 15.07.2022, www.politico.com/news/2022/07/15/a-fist-bump-at-the-palace-biden-squares-offwith-mbs-00046106 [accessed: 5.07.2023].
  • Fouad L., “Most Arabs distrust media coverage on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: Poll”, Arab News, 30.05.2023, www.arabnews.com/node/2092851/media [accessed: 8.07.2023].
  • France24 Staff, “Putin, Erdogan and Iran’s Raisi pledge cooperation against ‘terrorists’ in Syria”, France24, 19.07.2022, www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20220719-putin-tomeet-turkey-s-erdogan-and-iranian-president-raisi-in-tehran [accessed: 4.07.2023].
  • Fruganti L., “How the Ukraine War Has Disrupted the MENA Region, One Year On”, Italian Institute for International Political Studies, 24.02.2023, www.ispionline.it/en/publication/how-the-ukraine-war-has-disrupted-the-mena-region-one-yearon-117984 [accessed: 3.06.2023].
  • “General Assembly resolution demands end to Russian offensive in Ukraine”, UN News,2.03.2022, https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/03/1113152 [accessed: 30.03.2022].
  • Giuffrida A., “Pope Francis says Ukraine war was ‘perhaps somehow provoked’”, The Guardian, 14.06.2022, www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/14/pope-francis-ukrainewar-provoked-russian-troops [accessed: 14.03.2023].
  • Gjevori E., “Russia-Ukraine war: The rise of Iran’s drone industry”, Middle East Eye,30.10.2022, www.middleeasteye.net/news/russia-ukraine-war-iran-drone-industry-rise[accessed: 15.04.2023].
  • Gornall J., “Study shows Arabs more likely to blame NATO than Russia for Ukraine war”,Arab News, 30.05.2022, www.arabnews.com/node/2092861/middle-east [accessed:6.06.2023].
  • Hamzawy A. et al., “What the Russian War in Ukraine Means for the Middle East”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 24.03.2022, https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/03/24/what-russian-war-in-ukraine-means-for-middle-east-pub-86711 [accessed: 2.07.2023].
  • Han Dong-ho, “Scenario Construction and Its Implications for International Relations Research”, The Korean Journal of International Studies, vol. 9, no. 1, June 2011, pp. 39–65.
  • Hassan Z., ‘Palestine’, [in:] A. Hamzawy et al., “What the Russian War in Ukraine Meansfor the Middle East”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 24.03.2022, https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/03/24/what-russian-war-in-ukraine-means-for-middleeast-pub-86711 [accessed: 2.07.2023].
  • Isik F.S., Yavuz M.F., “Russia-Ukraine war: Israel’s tricky balancing act”, Middle East Eye,4.03.2022, www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/russia-ukraine-war-israel-tricky-balancing-act [accessed: 2.06.2023].
  • Jarallah J., “Arab Youth Survey 2022: democracy in the Middle East will never work, mostsay”, The National News, 21.09.2022, www.thenationalnews.com/mena/2022/09/21/arab-youth-survey-2022-democracy-in-the-middle-east-will-never-work-most-say[accessed: 20.03.2023].
  • “Jerandi recoit l’ambassadeur de Rusie en Tunesie”, LaPresse.tn, 5.03.2023, https://lapresse.tn/124780/jerandi-recoit-lambassadeur-de-russie-en-tunisie [accessed: 8.07.2023].
  • “Joint Statement on Further Restrictive Economic Measures”, White House, 26.02.2022, www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/02/26/joint-statement-on-further-restrictive-economic-measures [accessed: 14.03.2022].
  • Kahn H., Thinking about the Unthinkable, New York: Horizon Press, 1962.
  • Krämer T., “Israel’s Ukraine dilemma?”, Deutsche Welle, 21.10.2022, www.dw.com/en/israels-ukraine-dilemma/a-63517231 [accessed: 22.06.2023].
  • Lazaroff T., “Russia takes issue with Israel’s sovereignty over Golan Heights and Jerusalem”, The Jerusalem Post, 24.02.2022, www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-698512 [accessed:25.06.2023].
  • Marcus Cornaro@AmbUeTunesie, Tweet, 28.02.2022, https://twitter.com/AmbUeTunisie/status/1498343878784655373 [accessed: 14.06.2023].
  • McKernan B., “Joe Biden defends human rights record ahead of Saudi visit”, The Guardian, 14.07.2022, www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jul/14/joe-biden-defends-humanrights-record-ahead-of-saudi-visit [accessed: 5.07.2023].
  • MEE Staff, “Iranian press review: Russia to modernise Iran’s outdated oil and gas industry”, Middle East Eye, 18.05.2023, www.middleeasteye.net/news/iran-russia-modernise-dated-oil-gas-industry-press-review [accessed: 4.06.2023].
  • MEE Staff, “War of words escalates between US and Saudi Arabia over Opec+ cut”, Middle East Eye, 25.10.2022, www.middleeasteye.net/news/war-words-escalates-between-usand-saudi-arabia-over-opec-cut [accessed: 15.04.2023].
  • MEE Staff, “Zelensky arrives in Saudi Arabia to attend Arab League summit”, Middle East Eye, 19.05.2023, www.middleeasteye.net/news/arab-league-zelensky-arrive-saudi-arabia [accessed: 16.06.2023].
  • Melman Y., “Russia-Ukraine war: Israel’s ties with the West strained by its fear of Putin in Syria”, Middle East Eye, 2.03.2022, www.middleeasteye.net/news/russia-ukraine-warisrael-west-strained-fear-putin-syria [accessed: 15.04.2023].
  • MEMO Staff, “Israel concerned by Russia’s military cooperation with Iran”, Middle East Monitor, 16.06.2023, www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230616-israel-concerned-byrussias-military-cooperation-with-iran [accessed: 4.07.2023].
  • MEMO Staff, “Turkish foreign policy in the new era”, Middle East Monitor, 15.06.2023, www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230615-turkiye-foreign-policy-in-the-new-era [accessed: 7.07.2023].
  • Michaelson R., “Joe Biden lands in Saudi Arabia seeking to halt shift towards Russia and China”, The Guardian, 15.07.2022, www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jul/15/joebiden-lands-in-saudi-arabia-seeking-to-halt-shift-towards-russia-and-china [accessed: 5.07.2023].
  • Newton C., “A history of the US blocking UN resolutions against Israel”, Aljazeera, 19.05.2021, www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/19/a-history-of-the-us-blocking-unresolutions-against-israel [accessed: 12.06.2023].
  • Ottaway D., “Partners of Choice: Biden’s Plan to Check China in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf ”, Wilson Center, 1.05.2023, www.wilsoncenter.org/article/partners-choice-bidensplan-check-china-saudi-arabia-and-gulf [accessed: 5.07.2023].
  • Otte M., “Syria, the Middle East and the war in Ukraine”, Egmont, 6.09.2022, www.egmontinstitute.be/syria-the-middle-east-and-the-war-in-ukraine [accessed: 4.07.2023].
  • Peterson J.L., Out of the Blue: Wild Cards and Other Big Future Surprises, How to Anticipate and Respond to Profound Change, Arlington, V.A.: The Arlington Institute, 1997.
  • Ramesh R., “The US was prepared to bomb the Middle East into shape. In Ukraine, it seems no less self-serving”, The Guardian, 18.03.2023, www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/18/middle-east-ukraine-washington-iraq-kyiv [accessed: 4.06.2023].
  • Roche J., “Iranian and Syrian factors shape Israeli response to Russia’s Ukraine invasion”, Atlantic Council, 27.04.2023, www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/iranian-and-syrian-factors-shape-israeli-response-to-russias-ukraine-invasion [accessed: 25.05.2023].
  • Schiavi F.S., “The Costs of Food Insecurity in the MENA Region: A Conversation with Roberta Gatti”, Italian Institute for International Political Studies, 1.06.2023, www.ispionline.it/en/publication/the-costs-of-food-insecurity-in-the-mena-region-a-conversation-with-roberta-gatti-130388 [accessed: 4.07.2023].
  • Schwartz P., The Art of the Long View, New York: Currency Doubleday, 1991.
  • Security Council – Veto List, the Dag Hammarskjöld Library, UN, www.un.org/depts/dhl/resguide/scact_veto_table_en.htm [accessed: 12.06.2023].
  • Seligman L., Ward A., “New U.S. intelligence shows Russia’s deepening defense ties withIran”, Politico, 6.09.2023, www.politico.com/news/2023/06/09/united-states-securitycouncil-russia-iran-weapons-00101191 [accessed: 4.06.2023].
  • Soylu R., “Ukraine conflict: Why it really matters to Turkey”, Middle East Eye, 27.01.2022, www.middleeasteye.net/news/ukraine-turkey-why-conflict-matters [accessed:12.04.2023].
  • Soylu R., “Why Ukrainian grain is not going to countries with a food crisis”, Middle EasyEye, 13.08.2022, www.middleeasteye.net/news/russia-ukraine-turkey-grain-deal-explained [accessed: 15.04.2023].
  • Taleb W., “On heels of Biden visit, China’s Xi expected to visit Saudi Arabia soo”, Fox News, 20.08.2022, www.foxnews.com/world/on-heels-biden-visit-chinas-xi-expected-visitsaudi-arabia-soon [accessed: 10.04.2023].
  • “The Bush Doctrine”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 7.10.2022, https://carnegieendowment.org/2002/10/07/bush-doctrine-pub-1088 [accessed: 5.07.2023].
  • The Diplomatic Service of the European Union, “UN General Assembly demands Russian Federation withdraw all military forces from the territory of Ukraine”, European Union. External Action, 2.03.2022, www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/un-general-assembly-demands-russian-federation-withdraw-all-military-forces-territory-ukraine_en [accessed:30.03.2022].
  • UK Parliament, “Syria’s civil war in 2023: Assad back in the Arab League”, House of Commons Library, 9.06.2023, https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9378 [accessed: 4.07.2023].
  • U.S. Government Accountability Office, “Yemen: State and DOD Need Better Information on Civilian Impacts of U.S. Military Support to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates”, 15.06.2022, www.gao.gov/products/gao-22-105988 [accessed: 16.04.2023].
  • VOA Persian Service, “US Says Iran, Russia Are Expanding Military Ties”, VOA News on Iran, 16.05.2023, www.voanews.com/a/us-says-iran-russia-are-expanding-militaryties/7095107.html [accessed: 4.07.2023].
  • “War in Ukraine pushes Middle East and North Africa deeper into hunger as food pricesreach alarming highs [EN/AR]”, reliefweb, 31.03.2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/war-ukraine-pushes-middle-east-and-north-africa-deeper-hunger-food-pricesreach [accessed: 15.04.2023].
  • Weber S., “Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process”, Security Studies, vol. 6, no. 4,1997, pp. 167–179.
  • Yerkes S., ‘Tunisia’, [in:] A. Hamzawy et al., “What the Russian War in Ukraine Means forthe Middle East”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 24.03.2022, https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/03/24/what-russian-war-in-ukraine-means-for-middleeast-pub-86711 [accessed: 2.07.2023].
  • Zampano G., “Israel’s Premier Netanyahu says Ukraine war will likely continue”, World, 9.03.2023, www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukraine-war/israel-s-premier-netanyahu-saysukraine-war-will-likely-continue/2841290 [accessed: 2.06.2023].

Document Type

Publication order reference

Identifiers

Biblioteka Nauki
20434583

YADDA identifier

bwmeta1.element.ojs-doi-10_48269_2451-0610-ksm-2023-1-001
JavaScript is turned off in your web browser. Turn it on to take full advantage of this site, then refresh the page.