Backward assessments or expectations: what determines the consumer confidence index more strongly? Panel model based on the CCI of European countries

• Authors: Małgorzata Grzywińska-Rąpca , Aneta Ptak-Chmielewska

Title variants

PL

Oceny wsteczne czy oczekiwania – co silniej determinuje wskaźnik zaufania konsumentów? Model panelowy oparty na CCI krajów europejskich

Abstracts

PL

Wskaźnik zaufania konsumentów (ang. consumer confidence index – CCI), skonstruowany na podstawie subiektywnych ocen sytuacji gospodarczej (wstecznej i przyszłej), jest wykorzystywany w wielu badaniach jako zmienna uzupełniająca prognozowanie zachowań konsumenckich. O dużym znaczeniu CCI świadczy literatura dotycząca nastrojów konsumenckich. Badania nad rozwiniętymi, stabilnymi ekonomicznie gospodarkami koncentrują się na ocenach sytuacji gospodarczej w poprzednim okresie. W gospodarkach niestabilnych ekonomicznie, zdaniem wielu autorów, należy analizować przede wszystkim oczekiwania respondentów. Badanie omawiane w niniejszym artykule ma na celu sprawdzenie, które oceny respondentów (wsteczne czy oczekiwania na przyszłość) mają statystycznie istotny wpływ na poziom CCI oraz czy w ocenie respondentów występują różnice między krajami (przekrojowo) i różnice czasowe (efekty szeregów czasowych). Modelowanie panelowe przeprowadzono na podstawie danych dotyczących CCI jako zmiennej zależnej oraz zbioru zmiennych niezależnych dla krajów Unii Europejskiej oraz pięciu krajów spoza Wspólnoty. Dane pochodzą z bazy danych Eurostatu. Okres analizy obejmuje 7 lat i 5 miesięcy (styczeń 2015–maj 2022 r.), co wynika z dostępności danych. Do obliczeń wykorzystano program SAS 9.4. Wyniki badania świadczą o tym, że wyższe oczekiwania respondentów przekładają się na większe wartości CCI i mają statystycznie istotny wpływ na poziom tego wskaźnika. Przeprowadzone modelowanie wykazało, że w ocenie respondentów różnice pomiędzy krajami są znaczące, natomiast różnice czasowe – nie.

EN

The consumer confidence index (CCI) is an index constructed on the basis of subjective assessments of the economic situation (retroactive and future), in many studies used as a variable supplementing the forecasting of consumer behaviour. Its significance is evidenced by the literature on consumer sentiment. Research on developed, economically stable countries focuses on assessments of the economic situation in the preceding period. On the other hand, according to many authors, the analysis of economically unstable states should focus on the expectations of respondents. The aim of the study is to check which respondent assessments (retroactive or expectations for the future) have a statistically significant impact on the level of the CCI and to examine the differences in respondent assessments between countries (cross-sectionally), as well as the time differences (time series effects). The panel modelling was carried out using data for the CCI as a dependent variable and a set of independent variables for all European Union countries and five non-member states. The data were collected from the Eurostat database. The analysis period of seven years and five months (January 2015–May 2022) results from the availability of data. The SAS 9.4 software was used in this research. The results of the survey showed that higher expectations of respondents result in a higher CCI, and that they have a statistically significant impact on the level of the index. The modelling also demonstrated that the differences in respondent’ assessments between countries are significant, whereas the time differences are not.

Keywords

PL

consumer confidence index; CCI; subjective assessment; panel model; European countries

EN

wskaźnik zaufania konsumentów; CCI; ocena subiektywna; model panelowy; kraje europejskie

• Publisher: Główny Urząd Statystyczny
• Journal: Wiadomości Statystyczne. The Polish Statistician
• Year: 2023
• Volume: 68
• Issue: 2
• Pages: 1-15

Dates

published

2023

Contributors

author

Małgorzata Grzywińska-Rąpca

• Uniwersytet Warmińsko-Mazurski w Olsztynie, Wydział Nauk Ekonomicznych / University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Faculty of Economic Sciences

• https://orcid.org/0000000320882795

author

Aneta Ptak-Chmielewska

• Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie, Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych / SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis

• https://orcid.org/0000000298964240

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Identifiers

DOI

10.59139/ws.2023.02.1

Biblioteka Nauki

2177733