Household expenditure in Africa: evidence of mean reversion

• Authors: Gbenga A. Olalude , OlaOluwa S. Yaya , Hammed A. Olayinka , Toheeb A. Jimoh , Aliu A. Adebiyi , Oluwaseun A. Adesina

Abstracts

EN

This paper investigates the mean reversion in household consumption expenditure in 38 African countries; the expenditure series used were the percentage of nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP), each spanning 1990 to 2018. Due to a small sample size of time series of household expenditure, with possible structural breaks, we used the Fourier unit root test approach, which enabled us to model both smooth and instantaneous breaks in the expenditure series. The results showed non-mean reversion in the consumption expenditure pattern of Egypt, Madagascar and Tunisia, while mean reversion was detected in the remaining 35 countries. Thus, the majority of African countries are on the verge of recession once shocks that affect the growth of GDP are triggered. Findings in this paper are of relevance to policymakers on poverty alleviation programmes in those selected countries.

Keywords

EN

household expenditure; poverty level; mean reversion; Africa

• Publisher: Główny Urząd Statystyczny
• Journal: Statistics in Transition new series
• Year: 2023
• Volume: 24
• Issue: 3
• Pages: 171-186

Dates

published

2023

Contributors

author

Gbenga A. Olalude

• Department of Statistics, Federal Polytechnic Ede, Osun State

• https://orcid.org/0000000299500552

author

OlaOluwa S. Yaya

• Economic and Financial Statistics Unit, Department of Statistics, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria & Centre for Econometrics and Applied Research

• https://orcid.org/0000000275543507

author

Hammed A. Olayinka

• Department of Mathematical Sciences, Worcester Polytechnic Institute

• https://orcid.org/0000000297965276

author

Toheeb A. Jimoh

• Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Limerick

• https://orcid.org/0000000338307641

author

Aliu A. Adebiyi

• Environmental Statistics Unit, Department of Statistics, University of Ibadan

• https://orcid.org/000000026340098X

author

Oluwaseun A. Adesina

• Department of Statistics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology

• https://orcid.org/0000000169523991

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Identifiers

DOI

10.59170/stattrans-2023-042

Biblioteka Nauki

19233453