Wpływ wprowadzenia limitów dla transakcji gotówkowych typu B2B w Polsce w 2017 r. na wartość obiegu gotówkowego

• Authors: Arkadiusz Manikowski

Title variants

EN

Impact of the limit introduction for B2B cash transactions on the value of cash circulation in Poland in 2017

Abstracts

EN

The study analyses the impact of the introduction of 15,000 zloty limit for a B2B cash transaction for the value of cash in circulation in Poland in 2017. For this purpose, the econometric ARDL model of the demand for money was used. The obtained results prove that the introduction of limits caused an increase in cash circulation in 2017 by 2.16 pp. less in relation to a situation without such limits. This change is significant at the level of above 0.05. However, in the second year of the implementation of the limit, i.e. in 2018, no effect on the demand for cash was observed.

PL

W opracowaniu poddano analizie wpływ wprowadzenia w 2017 roku limitu do 15 tys. zł na transakcję gotówkowe typu B2B w Polsce na wartość gotówki obiegu. W tym celu wykorzystano ekonometryczny model ARDL popytu na pieniądz. Uzyskane wyniki dowodzą, że wprowadzenie limitów spowodowało wzrost obiegu w 2017 r. o 2,16 p.p. mniej w stosunku do sytuacji bez takich ograniczeń. Zmianę tę można uznać za istotną na poziomie istotności powyżej 0,05. Jednak w drugim roku obowiązywania limitu na płatności gotówkowe, czyli w 2018 r. wykazano brak wpływu limitu na zapotrzebowanie na gotówkę.

Keywords

PL

banknoty; popyt na gotówkę; płatności gotówkowe; limit płatności; szara strefa

EN

banknotes; demand for cash; cash payments; payment limit; informal economy

• Publisher: Uniwersytet Warszawski. Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Zarządzania
• Journal: Studia i Materiały
• Year: 2021
• Issue: 1(34)
• Pages: 28-43

Dates

published

2021

Contributors

author

Arkadiusz Manikowski

• Wydział Zarządzania, Uniwersytet Warszawski, Polska
• Departament Emisyjno-Skarbcowy Narodowy Bank Polski, Polska

• https://orcid.org/0000000226878757

References

• Achsani, N.A. (2010). Stability of Money Demand in an Emerging Market Economy: An Error Correction and ARDL Model for Indonesia. Research Journal of International Studies, 13, 54–62.
• Akinlo, A.E. (2006). The stability of money demand in Nigeria: An autoregressive distributed lag approach. Journal of Policy Modeling, 28(4), 445–452.
• Arize, A.C., Malindretos, J. i Shwiff, S.S. (1999). Structural breaks, cointegration, and speed of adjustment: evidence from 12 LDCs money demand. Int. Rev. Econ. Finance, 8, 399–420.
• Baharumshah, A.Z., Mohd, S.H., Mansur, A. i Masih, M. (2009). The stability of money demand in China: Evidence from the ARDL model, Economic Systems, 33(3), 231–244.
• Bahmani, S. i Kutan, A.M. (2009). How stable is the demand for money in emerging economies. Applied Economics, 42(26), 3307–3318.
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M. i Rehman, H. (2005). Stability of the money demand function in Asian developing countries. Applied Economics, 37, 773–792.
• Choudhry, T. (1996). Real stock prices and the long-run money demand function: evidence from Canada and the USA. J. Int. Money Finance, 15(1), 1–17.
• De Boef, S. i Keele, L. (2008). Taking Time Seriously. American Journal of Political Science, 52(1). Deutsche Bundesbank (2019). Cash demand in the shadow economy, Monthly Report, March 2019. Pozyskano z: https://www.bundesbank.de/resource/blob/793190/466691bce4f27f76407b35f8429441ae/mL/2019-03-bargeld-data.pdf (dostęp: 14.10.2021).
• Dritsakis, N. (2011). Demand for money in Hungary: An ARDL Approach. Review of Economics & Finance, 1, 1–16.
• Ernst&Young (2016). Reducing the Shadow Economy through Electronic Payments. Pozyskano z: https://assets.ey.com/content/dam/ey-sites/ey-com/en_pl/topics/eat/pdf/ey-report-2016-reducing-theshadow-economy-through-electronic-payments.pdf(dostęp: 14.10.2021).
• Ecorys (2017). Study on an EU initiative for a restriction on payments in cash. Final Report. Brussels, 15.12.2017. Pozyskano z: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/economy-finance/final_report_study_on_an_eu_initative_ecorys_180206.pdf (dostęp: 14.10.2021).
• European Commission (2017). Outcome of the open public consultation on potential restrictions on large payments in cash. Pozyskano z: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/statistical_overview.pdf (dostęp: 14.10.2021).
• European Commission (2018). Sprawozdanie Komisji dla Parlamentu Europejskiego i rady w sprawie ograniczeń dotyczących płatności gotówkowych, Bruksela, 12.06.2018, COM (2018) 483 final. Pozyskano z: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/PL/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52018DC0483&from=en (dostęp: 14.10.2021).
• Gosińska, E. (2015). Testowanie zmiany strukturalnej w modelu VEC. Bank i Kredyt, 46(6), 579–600.
• Halicioglu, F. i Ugur, M. (2005). On stability of the demand for money in a developing OECD country: the case of Turkey. Global Business and Economics Review, 7(2–3), 203–213.
• Hossain, A.A. (2012). Modelling of narrow money demand in Australia: an ARDL cointegration approach, 1970–2009. Empirical Economics, 42(3), 767–790.
• Iqbal, J. (2011). Forecasting Performance of Alternative Error Correction Models, MPRA 19 March.
• Jobst, C. i Stix, H. (2017). Doomed to Disappear? The Surprising Return of Cash Across Time and Across Countries, September, CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP12327. Pozyskano z: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3042640 (dostęp: 14.10.2021).
• Lego, M.J. i Kraft, P.W. (2017). The general error correction model in practice. Research and Politics, April–June 2017, 1–13.
• Lee, C-C. i Chang, C-P. (2012). The demand for money in China: A reassessment using the bounds testing approach. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 1, 74–94.
• Long, D. i Samreth, S. (2008). The Monetary Model of Exchange Rate: Evidence from the Philippines Using ARDL Approach. Economics Bulletin, 1–12.
• Manikowski, A. (2017). Analysis of the denomination structure of the Polish currency in the context of the launch of the new 500 zloty banknote. Bank i Kredyt, 48(5), 495–530.
• Mehrotra, A.N. (2008). Demand for money in transition: evidence from China’s disinflation. International Advances in Economic Research, 14(1), 36–47. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11294-007-9129-4.
• Pesaran, M. i Shin, Y. (1999). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. W: S. Strom (red.), Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch centennial Symposium. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. i Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326.
• Rainone, E. i Valentini, M. (2018). Fiscal Controls, Payment Limits and the demand for Cash. Pozyskano z: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/328577388_Fiscal_Controls_Payment_Limits_and_the_Demand_for_Cash (dostęp 14.10.2021).
• Samreth, S. (2008). Estimating Money Demand Function in Cambodia: ARDL Approach, MPRA Paper, No. 16274.

Identifiers

DOI

10.7172/1733-9758.2021.34.3

Biblioteka Nauki

20233280