Understanding the Structural Complexity of Induced Travel Demand in Decision-Making: A System Dynamics Approach

• Authors: Juan S. Angarita-Zapata , Jorge A. Parra-Valencia , Hugo H. Andrade-Sosa
• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

Background and purpose: Induced travel demand (ITD) is a phenomenon where road construction increases vehicles’ kilometers traveled. It has been approached with econometric models that use elasticities as measure to estimate how much travel demand can be induced by new roads. However, there is a lack of “white-box” models with causal hypotheses that explain the structural complexity underlying this phenomenon. We propose a system dynamics model based on a feedback mechanism to explain structurally ITD. Methodology: A system dynamics methodology was selected to model and simulate ITD. First, a causal loop diagram is proposed to describe the ITD structure in terms of feedback loops. Then a stock-flows diagram is formulated to allow computer simulation. Finally, simulations are run to show the quantitative temporal evolution of the model built. Results: The simulation results show how new roads in the short term induce more kilometers traveled by vehicles already in use; meanwhile, in the medium-term, new traffic is generated. These new car drivers appear when better flow conditions coming from new roads increase attractiveness of car use. More cars added to vehicles already in use produce new traffic congestion, and high travel speeds provided by roads built are absorbed by ITD effects. Conclusion: We concluded that approaching ITD with a systemic perspective allows for identifying leverage points that contribute to design comprehensive policies aimed to cope with ITD. In this sense, the model supports decision- making processes in urban contexts wherein it is still necessary for road construction to guarantee connectivity, such as the case of developing countries.

Keywords

EN

induced travel demand; system dynamics; decision-making; dynamic modeling

• Publisher: Sciendo
• Journal: Organizacija
• Year: 2016
• Volume: 49
• Issue: 3
• Pages: 129-143

Dates

published

2016-08-01

received

2016-05-06

revised

2016-07-02

accepted

2016-07-26

online

2016-09-17

Contributors

author

Juan S. Angarita-Zapata

• School of Systems Engineering and Informatics, Universidad Industrial de Santander, SIMON Research Group, Colombia

author

Jorge A. Parra-Valencia

• School of Systems Engineering, Universidad Autónoma de Bucaramanga, Systems Thinking Research Group, Colombia

author

Hugo H. Andrade-Sosa

• School of Systems Engineering and Informatics, Universidad Industrial de Santander, SIMON Research Group, Colombia

References

• Andrade, H. H., Dyner, I., Espinosa, A., López, H., & Sotaquirá, R. (2001). Pensamiento Sistémico: Diversidad en búsqueda de Unidad. Bucaramanga, Colombia: Ediciones Universidad Industrial de Santander.
• Andrade, H. H., Navas, X., Maestre, G., & López, G. (2014). El modelado y la simulación en la escuela -De preescolar a undécimo grado construyendo explicaciones científicas. Bucaramanga, Colombia: Ediciones Universidad Industrial de Santander.
• Barlas, Y. (1996). Formal aspects of model validity and validation in system dynamics”. System Dynamics Review, 12(3), 183-210, http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1727(199623)12:3<183::AID-DR103>3.0.CO;2-4[Crossref]
• Bleijenberg, A. (2012). Chapter 2: The Attractiveness of Car Use. Cars and Carbon (pp. 19) 2012, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-2123-4_2[Crossref]
• Bunge, M. (2014). Big questions come in bundles, hence they should be tackled systemically. Systema: connecting matter, life, culture and technology, 2(2). Retrieved October 1, 2015, from www.systema-journal.org/article/view/346
• Cerquera, F. (2007). Capacidad y niveles de servicio de la infraestructura vial. Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, Escuela Ingeniería de Transporte y Vías, Colombia. Retrieved June 22, 2015, from http://virtual.uptc.edu.co/drupal/files/48.pdf
• Cervero, R. (2001). Road Expansion, Urban Growth, and Induced Travel: A Path Analysis. Journal of the American Planning Association, 69(2), 145-163, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01944360308976303[Crossref]
• Cervero, R., & Hansen, M. (2000). Road supply-Demand relationships: Sorting out causal linkages. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley. Retrieved October 22, 2015, from www.uctc.net/research/papers/444.pdf
• Cervero, R., & Hansen, M. (2002). Induced travel demand and induced road investment - a simultaneous equation Analysis. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 36(3), 469-490. ISSN: 00225258.
• Concas, S. (2013). Highway capital expenditures and induced vehicle travel. Transportation Research Board 92nd Annual Meeting, Washington D.C., January 13-17. Retrieved October 22, 2015, from http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2062599
• Currie. G., & Delbosc A. (2010). Literature review of induced travel. Institute of transport and logistics studies. Working paper, ISSN: 1832-570X. Retrieved September 25, 2015, from www.sydney.edu.au/business/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/75181/itls-wp-10-16.pdf
• Duranton, G., & Turner, M. A. (2011). The fundamental law of road congestion: Evidence from US Cities. American Economic Review, 101(6), 2616-2652, http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.101.6.2616[Crossref]
• Ford, A. (1999). Modelling the environment. An Introduction to system dynamics. Models of environmental systems. Washington DC, USA: Island Press. ISBN: 1-55963-601-7.
• Forrester, J. 1994. Learning through System Dynamics as preparation for the 21st century. Keynote Address for Systems Thinking and Dynamic Modeling Conference for K-12 Education, Concord, MA, USA. Retrieved October 8, 2015, from http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/sloan-school-of-management/15-988-system-dynamics-self-study-fall-1998-spring-1999/readings/learning2.pdf
• Forrester, J. W. (1969). Urban Dynamics. Portland, USA: Productivity Press.
• Forrester, J. W. (1971). Counterintuitive behavior of social systems. Theory and Decision, 2(2), 109-140, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00148991[Crossref]
• Goodwin, P. P. (1992). A review of new demand elasticities with special reference to short and long run. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 26(2), 155-169. Retrieved October 1, 2015, from www.bath.ac.uk/e-journals/jtep/pdf/Volume_XXV1_No_2_155-169.pdf
• Gorham, R. (2009). Demystifying induced travel demand. Sustainable Transportation Technical Document, Sustainable Urban Transportation Project. Germany. Retrieved October 22, 2015, from http://www.sutp.org/files/contents/documents/resources/B_Technical-Documents/GIZ_SUTP_TD1_Demystifying-Induced-Travel-Demand_EN.pdf
• Graham, D. J., McCoy, E. J., & Stephens, D. A. (2014). Quantifying causal effects of road network capacity expansions on traffic volume and density via a mixed model propensity score estimator. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 109(508), 1440-1449, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2014.956871[Crossref]
• Handy, S. (2014). Impact of Highway Capacity and Induced Travel on Passenger Vehicle Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions. California Environmental Protection Agency, Air Resources Board, Retrieved August 28, 2015, from www.arb.ca.gov/cc/sb375/policies/hwycapacity/highway_capacity_brief.pdf
• Hansen, M. (1995). Do new highways generate traffic? ACCESS Magazine 7, 16 - 23. Retrieved August 15, 2015, from www.accessmagazine.org/articles/fall-1995/do-new-highways-generate-traffic/
• He, N., & Zhao, S. (2014). Induced Traffic in China: Elasticity Models with Panel Data. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 141(4), http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)UP.1943-5444.0000265[Crossref]
• Hills, P. (1996). What is induced traffic? Transportation, 23(1), 5-16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00166216[Crossref]
• Hong, Y., Liyin, S., Yongtao, T., & Jianli, H. (2011). Simulating the impacts of policy scenarios on the sustainability performance of infrastructure projects. Automation in Construction, 20(8), 1060-1069, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2011.04.007[Crossref]
• Hymel, K. M., Small, K. A., & Van Dender, K. (2010). Induced demand and rebound effects in road transport. Transportation Research Part B, 44(3), 1220-1241, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2010.02.007[Crossref]
• Ladd, B. (2012). You can’t build your way out of congestion. - Or can you? disP - The Planning Review, 48(3), 16-23, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02513625.2012.759342[Crossref]
• Litman, T. (2012). Changing Vehicle Travel Price Sensitivities - The Rebounding Rebound Effect. Victoria Transport Policy Institute. Retrieved October 8, 2015, from www.vtpi.org/VMT_Elasticities.pdf
• Litman, T. (2015). Generated Traffic and Induced Travel - Implications for Transport Planning. Victoria Transport Policy Institute. Retrieved August 25, 2015, from www.vtpi.org/gentraf.pdf
• Melo, P. C., Graham, D. J., & Canavan, S. (2012). The Effects of Road Investments on Economic Output and Induced Travel Demand: Evidence for Urbanized Areas in the US. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2292(20), 163-171, http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2297-20[Crossref]
• Noland, R. B. (2001). Relationships between highway capacity and induced vehicle travel. Transportation Research Part A, 35(1), 47-72, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0965-8564(99)00047-6[Crossref]
• Noland, R. B. (2004). Transport Policy and Assessment Procedures in the United Kingdom: Lessons for the Federal District of Mexico City. Retrieved September 25, 2015, from www.itdp.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/12.-Mex-White-Paper_UK.pdf
• Noland, R. B., & Cowart, W. A. (2000). Analysis of Metropolitan Highway Capacity and the Growth in Vehicle Miles of Travel. Transportation, 27(4), 363-390, http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005288826997[Crossref]
• Noland, R. B., & Lem, L. L. (2002). A review of the evidence for induced travel and changes in transportation and environmental policy in the US and the UK. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 7(1), 1-26, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1361-9209(01)00009-8[Crossref]
• Observatorio Metropolitano de Bucaramanga. (2014). Sustentabilidad Ambiental Urbana, Movilidad Sustentable. Bucaramanga, Colombia. Retrieved August 25, 2015, from www.amb.gov.co/observatorio2/indicadores/sau/Infograf%C3%ADa%208%20-%20Movilidad%20sustentable.pdf
• Özuysal, M., & Tanyel, S. (2008). Induced Travel Demand in Developing Countries: Study on State Highways in Turkey. Journal of urban planning and development, 134(2), 78-87, http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9488(2008)134:2(78) [Crossref]
• Secretaría de Infraestructura de Bucaramanga. (2011). Mesa de sostenbilidad urbana. Bucaramanga, Colombia. Retrieved June 22, 2015, from www.findeter.gov.co/descargar.php?idFile=210392
• Shengchuan, Z., Nan, H., & Ning, L. (2012). An Analysis of Induced Traffic Effects in China. The Planning Review, 48(3), 54-63, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02513625.2012.759350[Crossref]
• Sterman, J. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. USA: Irwin McGraw-Hill.

Identifiers

DOI

10.1515/orga-2016-0013