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Ekonomista
|
2006
|
issue 4
475-526
EN
The article contains comments on and the synthesis of literature related to global imbalances. All main hypotheses concerning this phenomenon, potential consequences as well as the discussion on the proposed remedial measures that might be applied to minimize the negative consequences of global imbalances are presented. Original systematization of all rivaling theories, together with the presentation of their strengths and weaknesses, helped the author to formulate two conclusions. Conclusion one: global imbalances cannot be sufficiently explained by the examined hypotheses, although a combination of their selected parts (global savings' glut, investment drought, low saving propensity in the US and precautionary motives to build foreign exchange reserves after the Asian crises) well describe the mechanics of their emergence. Conclusion two: financial markets will play an active role in eliminating global imbalances, however it is difficult to predict when this adjustment will take place; the scope of markets' reaction will be deeper in the absence of proper corrective measures adopted by key stakeholders of the global imbalances. .
EN
The article presents factors behind rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves held by central banks (in ten years reserves more than tripled, to over 5 trillion dollars in 2006). Authors present a new concept, OCHAR-Opportunity Cost of Holding Ample Reserves, which is defined as a forgone GDP growth due to too conservative reserve management by central banks. Paper presents OCHAR estimates for 33 countries accounting for three-quarters of world's foreign exchange reserves. Within the framework of growing central bank transparency one can observe that best practices are adopted by an increasing number of central banks, which includes flexible inflation targeting as well as efficient reserves management. It can be said that central banks embarked on a collective reserves diversification journey. Article presents some hypotheses on the possible outcomes of this diversification process and postulates that new steady states of relative asset prices may be significantly different from those seen in the XX century. Authors consider the global stability risks within the context of new global reserves management strategy and postulate that central banks and governments in countries-stakeholders of global imbalances should step up efforts to preserve global price stability and global financial stability.
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