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1
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Problemy konstrukcji syntetycznego wskaźnika dla gospodarki polskiej

100%
Stanek K.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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1997
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vol. 51
343-357
EN
This is a concise review of the major methodolical problems related to development of the general indicator of business activity for the Polish economy based on the RIED survey data. The first part of the paper presents the basic assumption underlying the constructionof the RIED's general indicator as well as the formula used in calculating it. In the early stage the synthetic indicator has been compiled from the qualitative data rendered by three surveys covering industry, agriculture and households. By the end of 1993 the formula was extended to include two new surveys launched in construction and trade. The second part discusses the following methodological problems faced in the development of the synthetic indicator for the whole economy: (a) comparison of the two versions of the indicator differing in the input data for industry, (b) comparison of the original and the extended version of the indicator, (c) the concepts of variable weights that could replace the constant weight system now used in complining the synthetic indicator.
2
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Aternatywne specyfikacje syntetycznego wskaźnika koniunktury IRG SGH

100%
Stanek K.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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1997
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vol. 51
387-399
EN
The paper brings four alternative sets of estimated values of the synthetic indicator of business for Poland, based on the RIED's survey data covering industry, construction, agriculture, trade, and households. These include: (a) original time series of the synthetic indicator as calculated by the RIED; (b) a modified version, with the industrial confidence indicator compiled according to the UE formula; (c) a reducaed three-sector version (industry, construction and households) used in the OECDl (d) an experimental version based on the author's concept of variable quotient weights reflecting the dynamics of individual sectors. The last part shows the monthly growth rates of the GDP in 1995, estimated on the basis of the alternative formulas of the synthetic indicator.
3
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Porównanie wskaźników koniunktury w przemyśle według GUS i IRG SGH

100%
Stanek K.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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1997
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vol. 51
409-414
EN
This paper compares the performance of the general business indicators for the Polish industry compiled by the Central Statustical Office (CSO) and the Research Institute of Economic Development (RIED) in the framework of their separate industrial surveys. The RIED's indicator is calculated in two versions, according to its own formula and according to the EU harmonized formula. Both versions of the RIED's indicator differ substantially from the indicator published by the CSO, not only in terms of individual values but also in terms of the tendencies (direction of change). This is because of the different concepts of the general indicator employed by the two sources and the different coverage of their surveys. Neither the CSO indicator nor one of the two versions of the RIED indicator can be considered to be better, or more accurate, than the other. The available indicators reflect different aspects of business conditions and they should be viewed as complements rather than substitues.
4

Problemy konstrukcji syntetycznego wskaźnika koniunktury dla gospodarki polskiej

100%
Stanek K.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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1995
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vol. 46
21-34
5
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Metodyka jakościowych badań kondycji polskiej gospodarki

100%
Stanek K.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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1997
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vol. 53
9-27
6
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Syntetyczny wskaźnik koniunktury w IRG SGH

100%
Stanek K.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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1997
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vol. 51
359-369
EN
The paper presents the algorithm used in compiling the general indicator of business activity in the Polish economy out of the RIED’s survey data for the major sectors, including: public and private industry, agriculture, construction, trade and households. The indicator is calculated in two versions differing in the way of compiling the business indicator for industry: according to the other RIED’s practice or to the method used in European Union. Both versions of the general indicator are presented, filled with the data covering the period from October 1992 to June 1996.
7
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O niektórych problemach badania zmian w gospodarce za pomocą syntetycznego wskaźnika koniunktury

100%
Stanek K.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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1997
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vol. 53
29-43
8
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Wyprzedzające własności wskaźników koniunktury w przemyśle i w sektorze gospodarstw domowych liczonych według formuł UE oraz IRG

100%
Stanek K.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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1998
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vol. 61
159-179
EN
This paper compares the empirical pattems of composite business indicators for industry and households filled with the RIED survey data and calculated according to the RIED own formula and to the EU formula. The authors tries to determine the possible leads or lags between the two versions of each indicator. In the light of his findings, the EU version of business indicator for industry tends to precede the changes of the RIED version by slightly less than one month. For households, the opposite is true, e.i. the EU version lags behind the RIED original formula.
9
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Okresowe badanie bariery popytu na produkty przemysłu sektora publicznego w Polsce. Ujęcie strukturalne

100%
Stanek K.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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1998
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vol. 59
9-32
PL
W artykule podjęto próbę odpowiedzi na pytanie w jakim stopniu bariera popytu dotyczy wytworzonych i przeznaczonych na sprzedaż dóbr konsumpcyjnych, zaopatrzeniowych i inwestycyjnych. Przeprowadzono ją na podstawie wyników ankiety "koniunktura w przemyśle" jaką IRG SGH prowadził od 1991 roku wśród przedsiębiorstw przemysłowych sektora publicznego.
EN
The paper presents the research results obtained, by the IRG SGH [Institute for Economic Development, the Main School of Trade], in the survey on the economic situation in industry (public sector), which the Institute has carried since 1991. It was noticed that the deman barrier undergoes changes in general and with reference to consumption, supply and investment related production type in particular. Although changes in demand barrier on investment goods should be perceived as positive, especially since 1996, such changes in demand barrier on supply goods may be considered as a clear sign that no adjustment measures have been adopted by the producers of those goods. (J.W.)
10
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Wybrane metody badania kondycji polskiej gospodarki za pomocą syntetycznych wskaźników koniunktury gospodarczej

100%
Stanek K.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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1999
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vol. 65
EN
The 65th issue of The Works and Materials of the Research Institute of Economic Development contains a selection of major works of the author accomplished within the framework of the Research Program of the Committee for Scientific Research no 1 H02C 003 14 "Research methods on Poland's economic performance with composite business indicators" in the years 1998- 1999. Other works by the members of the Research Team accomplishing the project were published in some previous issues The Works and Materials of RIED, in the series of Papers on Poland's economic performance, in the series of Monographs and Works of the Warsaw School of Economics and in other collective works. Under this research project a lot of works were also prepared in a form of interventions in domestic scientific seminars, domestic and foreign conferences, the Cl RET Congress as well as in a form of articles published in domestic and foreign scientific periodicals, dealing with the business research. In this book the implementation of some research methods on economic performance with composite business indicators has been presented. The methods well-known in the literaturę of the subject have been chosen, implemented rarely or for the first time, using qualitative indicators of economic activity as well as methods the author had proposed in his earlier works. The book consists of four chapters. The method of research on structures of economic aggregates, proposed in Chapter I, is based on business surveys' results. The method was described and illustrated by the output of the industrial sector. The method is characterized by the existence of the quantitative link between a certain portion of the output (in para. 1.1 this is a production for export, in para. 1.2 this is a production which has not been currently sold) and consumer's type of output, procurement type of output and investment type of output. Having this link (for instance in a form of equation) one may evaluate which parts of the above three types are assigned for export (para. 1.1) or are difficult to sell (para. 1.2) as well as how total production for export or unsold output are distributed among the three particular types of industrial products. In Chapter II some possibilities of making economic outlook with selected business indicators have been presented. In sub- Charter 2.1 the possibility of making the industrial production outlook on the basis of demand of this sector consumers' is being studied. It is checked whether the output adjusts itself to demand ( domestic and foreign) and examined if these adjustments are quicker in relation to the domestic or foreign demand, in private or public sector of the industry, how big current ranges of adjustments are, as well as whether on the basis of changes in demand the outlook for industrial output changes can be madę. The implemented method is focused on making the outlook on the basis of equations describing the current changes in output with variables being interpreted as domestic and foreign demand declared currently and in the previous periods. The equations are the basis for making the outlook for changes in industrial output on the basis on the changes in demand. In sub-Chapter 2.2 the outlook for GNP growth ratę in the second half of 1998 has been presented. The research presented in this sub-Chapter is mainly of methodological naturę. The results obtained show a direction of futurę studies concerning consistency of the quantitative description of the GNP growth ratę with the business barometer. A substantial current barrier is a too short time series of the business barometer which only allows to demonstrate a method of making the outlook for the GNP growth ratę. The method is based on existing linear interdependency between the GNP growth ratę series and the monthly one corresponding to the value of linear- oscillatory function of the business barometer with a total value of temporal variable. In sub-Chapter 2.3 an attempt to make the outlook for a very business barometer has been undertaken whose temporal course corresponds to the growing stream of the GNP. The aim of this study is to presents the business barometer outlook for the Polish economy for the years 1999-2000. The barometer temporal series in the Research Institute of Economic Development version has been assumed in the research for fuli years from 1993 to 1998. The series is 72 (months) long. The business barometer outlook has been based on the linear trend-free- 12-month- mobile average values of the barometer,. The research has shown that the average satisfies a reflexive equation after a two-series delay. Using this result a current mobile average value of the barometer may be subordinated to the previous values of the average. Sub-Chapter III begins with an analysis of economic cycles with stationary differential equations i.e. such in which aggregated variables correspond to different periods. In this part also the foundations of harmonie analysis have been treated. In the second part of this chapter cyclical economic changes in the temporal course of the business barometer for the Polish economy have been presented. In the sub-Chapter 3.3 the correctness of conclusions concerning the economic cycles discovered with differential analysis has been examined, the ranges of both the cycles and seasonal fluctuations have been calculated. The method of harmonie analysis has been used which can be used for the cycles being a complete multiple of 12 months. The method of differential analysis, implemented in sub-Chapter 3.2 does not allow to evaluate an average rangę of cyclical fluctuations because this method usually results in monotonically variable ranges, and above this, a phenomenon of cyclical waves interference is very likely to appear in the temporal course of the mobile average of the business barometer. The phenomenon is demonstrated by the interference of local maximal and minimal values in the temporal course of the barometer's mobile average in some months. This makes it impossible to determine by the method of differential analysis which part of the fluctuations rangę is of seasonal naturę and which is caused by oscillations coming from other factors. In Chapter IV some aspects of the development of industrial sector of the Polish economy have been researched with the qualitative indicators. In the first part of this chapter the Solow's method has been implemented to research the effects of technological progress in the public, private and entire industry. In this connection qualitative indicators- the balances of changes in the industrial output have been used. In the second part of Chapter IV a methodological aspect of composite business indicator's construction for the entire industry is being treated. In the study the proportions in which both private and public sectors of industry contribute to total output sold of the Polish industry.
11
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Porównanie systetycznych wskaźników koniunktury liczonych według formuły IRG i według formuły UE

100%
Stanek K.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
1997
|
vol. 51
401-408
EN
The synthetic indicator of business activity in Poland compiled by the RIED is a weighted average of partial indicators eflecting the activity levels in the major sectors of the economy: industry, agriculture, households, construction, and trade. The general indicator of business activity is compiled in two versions, differing by the way in which the partial indicator for industry is calculated: (a) eccording to RIED's own formula, and (b) according to the EU harmonized formula. The two versions of the synthetic general indicator, filled with the data for the period from December 1992 till August 1994, have been compared in order to discover possible leads or lags between the two indicators. The variant based on the EU formula tenda to lead the RIED's original indicator by one month. This finding suggests that the vrsion linked to the EU formula may be more useful for monitoring and forecasting purposes.
12
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Wyprzedzające własności wskaźników koniunktury przemysłu według UE oraz IRG

100%
Stanek K.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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2002
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vol. 72
223-230
EN
In connection with the harmonization of the indicators identifying intensification of the changes in business activity, with those used in EU countries, it is necessary to study which groups of indicators (either used in Poland so far, or in EU countries) better describe the changes in this activity from a respective point of view. In this study this problem was undertaken in relation to Polish industry, both in the public and private sector as well as to industry in general. The survey demonstrates that the obtained values of business indicators calculated according to the method used in EU countries gives information about business activity earlierthan the indicators calculated in the Research Institute of Economic Development.
13
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O niektórych zależnościach ilościowo-jakościowych w badaniach przemysłu i gospodarstw domowych

100%
Stanek K.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
1996
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vol. 49
51-71
14
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Problem wag w konstrukcji syntetycznego wskaźnika koniunktury IRG SGH

100%
Stanek K.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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1997
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vol. 51
371-385
EN
First part of the paper deals with theoretical foundations underlying the choice of the weighing system applicable to the general indicator of business, compiled from the RIED’s survey data. The second part presents three concepts of non-stationary weights which might be used in calculating the synthetic indicator of business from a survey data covering major sectors of the economy. these are: (a) intermediate weight system based on the Dynamics of the economy, (b) adaptive adjustment of weight link to the GDP growth rate, (c) quotient weighing system favoring the most dynamic sectors. in the author’s view the latter is the best alternative to the system of constant weights used in the RIED’s practice.
15
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Analiza zgodności między wybranymi wskaźnikami testu przemysłowego IRG SGH a indeksem produkcji przemysłowej GUS

63%
Stanek K., Nilsson R.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
1997
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vol. 51
415-423
EN
This paper analyses the conformity between the RIED survey data on the Polish industry and the industrial production index based on official statistics. The analysis focuses on correlation between the business situation evaluation, reflecting subjective opinions of the survey enterpreneurs, and the actual change of industrial production volume. Four indicators of the RIED industrial test: a) current production tendency, b) future production tendency, c) general business indicator, d) capacity utilization, were cross-corelated with industrial production index at different leads and lags. The latter index was introduced in three forms: a) 1 month change, b) 12 month change, c) ratio to the trend. The analysis covered the period from September or November 1986 to May 1994. The results indicate that the RIED survey data are generally well correlated with the actual evolution of production volume. The highest correlation coefficients have been obtained for the survey data lagged by 11-14 months behind the production index taken as the ratio to trend. These findings suggest a considerable forecasting capacity of the RIED survey data, notably in 1-year forecasts.
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