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EN
The aim of the article is to present the assessments of the purposefulness of actions launched within the Rural Development Plan for 2004–2006, formulated by is its direct beneficiaries - farmers, with due attention for regional differences, and to compare these assessments with opinions formulated by experts. The research material consisted of the results of surveys conducted with the help of questionnaires, which covered 746 farmers, and an opinion poll which covered 46 agricultural economics and agricultural policy experts representing Poland's leading research centres. The conducted analysis has shown that most farmers tend to assess highly actions designed to support incomes and improve the standard of living. Experts, on the other hand, tend to assess highly pro-development and pro-ecological actions. Essential differences have been discovered in the assessments of the Rural Development Plan's actions formulated by farmers living in different parts of Poland. Farmers assess particularly highly these actions which seem to be most closely related to the problems of agriculture's development in their own region.
EN
The objective of this paper is to compare and discuss the results of the multi-objective linear programming and bankruptcy rules applied to a practical structural policy budget allocation problem using the example of the Polish Rural Development Program 2007-2013. The spread, the Gini indexes and the Lorentz curves were used to compare the funds’ dispersion. The results show some similarities between the allocation performed by the linear programming model and the CEL method. Both of the procedures resulted in the allocation concentrated on a limited number of measures, assuring their high financing. Conversely, CEA allocation is the most similar to the actual allocation of the MARD. In both cases the financing is spread among all programs, with a special emphasis on satisfying programs with lower claims. The results demonstrate that, with the use of formal methods, decision-makers can choose if they are willing to set more dispersed or more concentrated budgets.
PL
Celem artykułu jest porównanie i omówienie wyników alokacyjnych dwóch formalnych metod podziału: modelu programowania liniowego oraz metod bankructwa zastosowanych do alokacji budżetu na przykładzie Programu Rozwoju Obszarów Wiejskich w Polsce 2007-2013. W celu porównania rezultatów alokacyjnych omawianych metod wykorzystano indeks Giniego oraz krzywe Lorentza. Wyniki wskazują na pewne podobieństwa między alokacją wykonywaną za pomocą modelu programowania liniowego a metodą bankructwa CEL. Efektem obu procedur jest koncentracja alokacji na ograniczonej liczbie działań zapewniających im wysokie finansowanie. Alokacja w wyniku zastosowania CEA jest najbardziej podobna do rzeczywistej alokacji MRiRW. W obu przypadkach finansowanie jest rozłożone na wszystkie programy, ze szczególnym naciskiem na zaspokojenie programów z niższymi roszczeniami. Wyniki pokazują, że za pomocą formalnych metod decydenci mogą wybierać, czy chcą ustalać bardziej rozproszone, czy bardziej skoncentrowane budżety.
EN
The research was to simulate the effects of milk quota abolition for the Polish dairy producers, in the context of regional differentiation. The CAPRI partial equilibrium model (Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact) was used to carry out an analysis of the impact of milk quota regime changes on the agri-food sector. The model allows to examine the impact of agricultural policy changes on the agricultural sector across the European Union at the national and regional level. Two scenarios of intervention on the milk market have been analysed. Under the first scenario abolition of the milk quota beyond 2015 is assumed according to the decision of the EU Commission, while the second scenario provides for its continuation. The simulation results prove that the milk production, yield and number of animals at the national level would be similar irrespective of the scenario. However, discrepancies between the scenarios in particular regions would be significant. Abolition of milk quota may be conducive to a consolidation of the existing production structures and strengthening of production polarization. Thus, the sector efficiency would improve at the national level while the gaps in milk production sector development would widen among the regions. Continuation of the milk quota scheme would result in a relatively faster production growth in the currently less developed regions than in those with higher milk production. Therefore, milk quota scheme is conducive to equalisation of production conditions at the national level.
EN
The aim of the conducted research was the simulation of the possible effects of the liquidation of milk quotas for the producers of milk in the European Union. The object of analysis was the comparison of simulated situations on the milk market in 2020 in the case of continuation and liquidation of the system of quotas. For the purpose of research the CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact) model was used. The analysis of the obtained simulation results showed that in the effect of the liquidation of the system of quotas the production of milk would be moved to the regions of Europe where the climatic conditions and relatively low costs are conducive to the development of production. Also, territorial reorganization of milk production would probably take place in many countries. Thus, the liquidation of milk quotas would facilitate the rationalisation of spatial distribution of milk production from the point of view of its effectiveness and would improve the European Union's competitive position on the global market.
PL
Każda reforma Wspólnej Polityki Rolnej (WPR) wiąże się z pewnymi konsekwencjami – przede wszystkim dla producentów rolnych, ale również dla całego społeczeństwa. W artykule przedstawiono nowe podejście metodologiczne służące do określenia potencjalnych efektów reform polityki rolnej UE polegające na połączeniu modelu równowagi cząstkowej CAPRI i teorii gier. Istota tego podejścia polega na wyznaczeniu macierzy wypłat gry niekooperacyjnej przy założeniu, że użyteczności graczy, a w konsekwencji macierze wypłat, są wynikiem symulacji modelem CAPRI. Ilustracją jest analiza dwóch scenariuszy zakładanych zmian WPR dotyczących ograniczenia wsparcia wewnętrznego producentów rolnych w ramach I filaru (scenariusz 1) i liberalizacji handlu produktami rolnymi (scenariusz 2). W analizie spodziewanych efektów zaproponowanych scenariuszy uwzględniono zmiany w poziomie dobrobytu różnych grup społeczno-ekonomicznych w UE, a stronami konfliktu były Komisja Europejska i Światowa Organizacja Handlu. Z przedstawionych wariantów gier wynika, że najkorzystniejszym rozwiązaniem z punktu widzenia różnych grup interesariuszy jest pozostawienie I filaru i liberalizacja handlu rolnego.
EN
Each reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is connected with some consequences – for agricultural produces, but also for all the society. The article presents a new methodological approach to the determination of the potential effects of reforms in the EU agricultural policy, which combines the CAPRI partial equilibrium model with game theory. The essence of this approach consists in defining the pay-off matrix of a noncooperative game on the assumption that the utilities of players, and consequently the pay-off matrices are the result of a simulation based on the CAPR model. This has been illustrated by analysing two scenarios of the assumed changes in the CAP concerning the internal support for agricultural producers provided in the framework of the pillar I (scenario 1) and trade liberalization for agricultural products (scenario 2). The analysis of the expected effects of both scenarios considers the changes in the well-being levels of various socio-economic groups within the EU, whereas, the two parties involved in the conflict are European Commission and World Trade Organization. The analysis of the presented game variants shows that the best solution from the point of view of various interest groups is leaving the pillar I combined with agricultural trade liberalization.
RU
Каждая реформа Общей аграрной политики (ОАП) влечет за собой определенные последствия, прежде всего для сельхозпроизводителей, но и для всего общества. В статье представлен новый методологический подход для решения задач по определению потенциальных эффектов реформ аграрной политики ЕС, основывающийся на соединении модели частичного равновесия CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact) и теории игр. Суть этого подхода состоит в обозначении матрицы выплат некооператив- ной игры при условии, что пригодность игроков и матрицы выплат являются результатом симуляции при помощи модели CAPRI. Иллюстрацией этого подхода является анализ двух сценариев предполагаемых изменений ОАП, касающихся ограничения внутренней поддержки агропроизводителей: в рамках первой опоры ОАП (сценарий 1) и либерализации торговли сельхозпродукцией (сценарий 2). В анализе ожидаемых эффектов предложенных сценариев были учтены изменения в уровне благосостояния разных социально-экономических групп в ЕС, а сторонами конфликта были Еврокомиссия и Всемирная организация торговли. Из представленных вариантов игр следует, что самым выгодным решением с точки зрения разных групп интересов является сохранение первой опоры и либерализация торговли сельхозпродуктами.
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