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EN
The article discusses decision making on the basis of linear partial information. In such a situation, the parameters that describe the problem are not precisely known. The paper also presents rules for making optimal decisions based on expected payoffs and variances or standard deviations and their applications.
EN
In the paper models of share portfolio selection with first order or second order almost stochastic dominance constraints (for discrete random variables) are proposed. There are several simple examples as an illustration of our models.
EN
The construction of the headquarters of the Museum of the Polish History (Polish: Muzeum Historii Polski) has become one of the longest investments in the area of culture financed from the state budget, and probably one of the most expensive. It took seventeen years from the establishment of the Museum in 2006 to the termination of the construction works in 2023, and the costs of the project implementation (including the permanent exhibition) will exceed PLN 1.2 billion. By 2015, the support for the construction of the permanent headquarters of the Museum was provided through earmarked subsidies for financing or co-financing of the investment’s costs. While in 2015, the Council of Ministers took a decision to create the multiannual programme “Construction of the Museum of the Polish History” that was modified three times (in 2017, in 2018 and in 2021). The initiative was audited by the Supreme Audit Office twice. In 2015, NIK conducted the audit “Construction of museums in Poland in the years 2007–2015” which examined, among others, the construction of the headquarters of the Museum of the Polish History. In 2022, NIK carried out the planned audit “Construction of the Museum of the Polish History”, exclusively dedicated to this very investment. The question that defined the main objective of the audit read: “Was the construction of the headquarters and the permanent exhibition of the Museum of the Polish History properly prepared and realised?”. The results of the audit, which covered the years 2016–2022 (by the date of terminating the proceedings) were presented in the post-audit statement approved by the President of NIK on 12 January 2023. The article presents the main findings of the audit, referring also to the 2015 results.
PL
Budowa siedziby Muzeum Historii Polski okazała się jedną z najdłużej trwających inwestycji w dziedzinie kultury finansowanych z budżetu państwa oraz prawdopodobnie jedną z najdroższych. Od momentu utworzenia Muzeum w 2006 r. do czasu zakończenia prac budowlanych w 2023 r. upłynęło 17 lat, a koszty realizacji projektu (wraz z wystawą stałą) przekroczą 1,2 mld zł. Najwyższa Izba Kontroli dwukrotnie – w ramach kontroli planowych w 2015 r. i w 2022 r. – sprawdzała budowę placówki, przy czym ostatnie badanie skoncentrowano wyłącznie na ocenie rzetelności przygotowania i wykonania inwestycji oraz wystawy stałej. Artykuł prezentuje najważniejsze ustalenia NIK.
EN
Cumulative prospect theory is the leading approach in a description of real choices. According to these rules decision-maker valuates distributions of possible relative outcomes of decision alternatives. An attempt to use these rules on stock market meets with some difficulties. On the one hand an investor has data concerning past quotations, and on the other hand he wants to know which stock to select now in order to obtain the best outcome in the future. The goal of this paper is to investigate whether the consideration of additional information about the distribution of future investment's outcomes can contribute to the selection of stocks which will yield higher real gains, than stocks selected on the basis of valuation of past outcomes.
PL
Dominacje stochastyczne są relacjami porządku częściowego w zbiorze losowych wariantów decyzyjnych, podobnie jak relacja dominacji oparta na zaproponowanej przez Keatinga i Shadwicka w 2002 roku funkcji omega, służącej ocenie i uporządkowaniu wariantów inwestycyjnych pod kątem ich efektywności. Celem artykułu jest zbadanie zgodności porządku względem dominacji stochastycznych i funkcji omega oraz przedstawienie zależności między tymi kryteriami.
EN
Stochastic dominance is a partial order in the set of random decision alternatives. Similarly, a partial order is the relation based on omega function proposed in 2002 by Keating and Shadwick, which is used as a performance measure for the valuation and ordering of investment alternatives. The purpose of this article is to examine the consistency between the ordering according to stochastic dominance and the ordering according to omega function. We also present relationships between these criteria.
EN
The stochastic dominance rules are a very popular tool in the support of decision making in various fields of economics and management. However the selection of the best alternative on the basis of stochastic dominance is sometimes impossible due to incomparability of alternatives. Some particular properties of almost second degree stochastic dominance (which stochastic dominance do not posses) allow to compare all elements of the set of random alternatives and to build a ranking of them. The aim of the article is to propose a stocks preselection method based on almost stochastic dominance. Our method allow to determine the set of the best stocks and thereby to reduce the number of stocks as a potential elements of a portfolio. Such reduction is very important nowadays because with every year more and more stocks are quoted on Stock Exchange in Warsaw.
EN
The development of information technology forces the usage of software tools in the analysis and visualisation of risk in various fields including economics, finance, management. The graphic presentation of analysis results as well as various relationships contributes to their better understanding. Modern computer software allows for showing dynamics of various decision problems. The aim of the paper is to present the dynamic visualisations of risk analysis in selected fields using the GeoGebra software.
PL
Rozwój technologii informatycznych wymusza korzystanie z programów komputerowych w zakresie analizy i wizualizacji ryzyka w różnych dziedzinach, w tym ekonomii, finansach, zarządzaniu. Graficzne przedstawienie wyników analizy, jak również różnych zależności, przyczynia się do ich lepszego zrozumienia. Nowoczesne oprogramowanie komputerowe pozwala na pokazywanie dynamiki różnych problemów decyzyjnych. Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie wybranych dynamicznych wizualizacji ryzyka utworzonych z wykorzystaniem programu GeoGebra.
PL
W porównywaniu akcji notowanych na giełdzie stosuje się najczęściej kryteria wykorzystujące wybrane parametry rozkładu, wyznaczane na podstawie danych historycznych przy założeniu dyskretnego rozkładu losowych stóp zwrotu. Miarą uwzględniającą pełną informację o rozkładzie jest wskaźnik omega. W artykule przedstawiono przykład zastosowania wskaźnika omega do oceny akcji przy założeniu ciągłego rozkładu stóp zwrotu. Celem pracy jest empiryczna weryfikacja zależności uporządkowania (względem wskaźnika omega) losowych wariantów decyzyjnych od przyjętego rozkładu.
EN
When comparing shares quoted on the stock exchange, investors the most often use the criteria which are based on selected parameters of the probability distribution. In such approach historical date are being used and a discrete probability distribution of random returns is assumed. The omega ratio is a measure which takes into account all the information about the probability distribution. In this paper we present the example of applying the omega ratio to the evaluation of shares assuming a continuous distribution of returns. The aim of this paper is to empirically verify the relationship between the order (according to the omega ratio) of random decision alternatives and the assumed probability distribution.
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