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EN
Terrorism is one of the biggest problems in today’s world and one that, to a greater or lesser extent, continues to evolve. This evolution is true of many aspects, including terrorist tactics and strategy as well as types of terrorist threats. The global and destructive reach of terrorism is clearly reflected in different comparative studies. For example, data gathered by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) indicate that there were over 150,000 terrorist attacks around the world between 1970 and 2015. These attacks were carried out in over 100 countries, most of them, however, in Afghanistan, Iraq Nigeria, Pakistan, and Syria. In recent years, the force driving the escalation of terrorist activity was initially Al- -Qaeda, followed by the Islamic State. ISIS combines features commonly attributed to terrorist organizations, criminal groups, states, terrorist networks, and military formations. Contrary to the common view, the Islamic State is not a state as defined in international law and practice. Although it has territory, a population, and authorities, it does not have the capacity to pursue international relations and does not meet the criterion of external sovereignty. Only a state fulfilling all of these conditions can rightly be called a state. Thus, in the case of ISIS, we can only talk of certain elements of statehood and not of a state proper, as understood in international law and relations. In 2015, the number of terrorist attacks around the globe dropped by 13% (from 13,463 in 2014 to 11,774 in 2015). A particularly sharp drop occurred in Pakistan (45%), Iraq (28%), and Nigeria (11%), whereas other countries witnessed a surge in the number of attacks. This was the case of Turkey (escalation by 353%), Bangladesh (270%), Egypt (69%) and Syria. Syria presents a particularly complex and alarming picture, with the number of terrorist attacks up by 65%, the number of people killed up by 62%, the number of those injured up by 91%, and the number of those kidnapped and held hostage up by 67%. In 2015, the number of people who lost their lives as a result of terrorism dropped by 14% (from 32,727 in 2014 to 28,328 in 2015). There was a rise in the number of people injured (2%) and kidnapped and held hostage by terrorists (29%). The latter phenomenon is particularly alarming since it indicates renewed terrorist interest in this form of activity. The purpose of the article is to answer the following research questions: What is terrorism? How can it be defined? What are its primary causes and features? What characterizes contemporary terrorist threats? What is the scale of global terrorism today? What led to the emergence and subsequent rapid rise of the Islamic State? How can terrorism be prevented and combated effectively? The author uses his own definition of terrorism. He defines terrorism as a variously motivated and implemented form of political and/or social violence (or threatening such violence) breaching the binding legal order, perpetrated by individuals or groups through different means and methods, leading to physical, psychological, or material damage. This form of violence has a direct target or targets (for example individuals representing a given state) or an indirect target through which the perpetrator wants to achieve his final purpose. This definition draws attention to a couple of important and universal features of terrorism. Firstly, it demonstrates the diversity of its causes (motives), spanning a wide range of factors that drive and escalate the phenomenon. Secondly, it highlights the fact that terrorist acts violate the law, resulting in a broad range of consequences. Thirdly, it stresses that terrorism (as people often mistakenly assume) encompasses not just the actions of groups, but also those of individuals. Fourthly, it points to the multiplicity and diversity of means and methods employed by terrorists. Religious, political, or ethnic reasons are not the sole driving forces behind terrorism, which springs from a combination of many different factors, including cultural, historical, psychological and socio-economic determinants – the latter often underestimated or overlooked. There is frequently a direct or indirect link between terrorism and poverty or other serious socio-economic problems observed in a given territory. This is reflected, inter alia, in the data published in the Global Terrorism Index 2015. This report indicates that in recent years, countries that have seen the steepest increase in the number of deaths due to terrorist attacks are largely poor ones, including Iraq, Nigeria, Afghanistan, Syria, and Somalia. Of course this does not mean that poverty or big social inequalities always lead to terrorism. They can, however, stoke up different extremist attitudes, including ones with ties to terrorism. This state of affairs is known as “fueling terror.” The paper highlights selected aspects of contemporary terrorism. Other important issues include the problem of terrorist financing, the consequences of terrorism, identifying real and potential perpetrators, the evolution of terrorist strategy and tactics as employed by “lone wolves,” suicide bombers, and women and children used to carry out attacks, links between migration and terrorism, etc. A comprehensive discussion of these topics requires a separate and much broader study. Such a study should be prepared by an interdisciplinary team of specialists bringing together not just security, but also legal, psychology, sociology or economic experts. Such a team should include both theorists and practitioners with wide-ranging experience in analyzing, eliminating, and forecasting terrorist threats.
EN
Among the many issues that were raised in the White Book on National Security of the Republic of Poland (WBNSRP), there were also those related to the functioning of a Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). Its importance for the security of Poland was indicated, as well as the need on the part of EU Member States to broaden collaboration in the sphere of security and defence. The key problems occurring in the context of CSDP were also emphasised and their causes indicated. The aim of the article is to present the factors responsible for the weakening of CSDP effectiveness, ones taken into account in the White Book, and subsequently to present a Framework for their analysis in the light of further scholarship.
EN
In order to present and understand the nature of modern terrorism it is important to realize its key properties as well the mechanisms that shape terrorism. Selected properties and mechanisms shaping modern terrorism which can be exemplified by the following: evolutionary nature of terrorism, asymmetry of terrorism, interferentiality of terrorism, multitude of components of terrorism, diffusion of terrorism, duality of terrorism, positive dimension of terrorism, terrorist as the system, diversity of terrorist activity goals, changeability of terrorist threat, the broad and narrow dimension of terrorism, counter-anti-terrorism, the confrontational and cooperational character of relations, calculation and operational strategy, disintegrational nature of terrorism, multidisciplinarity of terrorism, horizontal and vertical dimension of terrorism and a the few other traits or mechanisms.
EN
The current transformation Egypt is experiencing can be analysed in terms of many different research concepts. They provide a more or less exhaustive picture of the individual processes, determinants and events. Whereas many research concepts focus on the issues related to the Arab Spring, democratisation and the transformations the Middle East is undergoing, much less attention is paid to presenting different factors that pose a threat or impede democratisation in Egypt. The article aims to illustrate and systemise these factors. The following questions – corresponding with the book Democration in the Arab World – are asked: to what extent have the above-mentioned factors occurred in Egypt? Do they pose a threat to Egyptian democracy? Can they contribute to diluting the democratic tendencies in Egypt further in the future?
PL
Celem tekstu jest zaprezentowanie różnorodnych czynników będących utrudnieniem lub zagrożeniem dla współczesnej egipskiej demokracji. Skoncentrowano się przy tym jednak nie tylko na ich krótkiej charakterystyce, ale równie¿ próbie systematyzacji dokonanej przy pomocy koncepcji triady czynników antydemokratycznych (TCA), która wskazuje na główne determinanty osłabiające lub wręcz niwelujące procesy demokratyczne zachodzące we współczesnym świecie. W nawiązaniu do publikacji pt. Democration in the ArabWorld postawiono ponadto następujące pytania badawcze: Czy zagrożenia dla demokracji w Egipcie, rozpatrywane na tle doświadczeń innych państw, są podobne czy też całkowicie odmienne? Jakie są ich główne przyczyny?
PL
Terroryzm można przyrównać do niebezpiecznej „hydry” o wielu różnorodnych głowach. Są one symbolem różnych jego form, takich jak na przykład terroryzm: islamistyczny, separatystyczny, skrajnie prawicowy (right-wing), skrajnie lewicowy (left-wing) itd. Zróżnicowanie terrorystycznego zagrożenia dobrze można obserwować na przykładzie Unii Europejskiej. Ukazuje to choćby najnowszy raport Europolu pt. TE-SAT, European Union Terrorism Situation and Trend Report 2017, a także analiza wydarzeń z 2016 i 2017 roku. Głównym celem tekstu jest odpowiedź między innymi na następujące pytania: Jaka jest obecnie skala terrorystycznego zagrożenia w Unii Europejskiej? Co charakteryzuje współczesny terroryzm w UE? Na czym polega jego specyfika i ewolucja? Jakie są jego główne ideologiczne przyczyny oraz rodzaje? Jaki jest zakres i charakter terroryzmu islamistycznego w Unii Europejskiej? Jak zjawisko imigracji/uchodźstwa wpływa na poziom terroryzmu? Jak należy ocenić obecną politykę antyterrorystyczną UE? Jak w kolejnych miesiącach może wyglądać poziom zagrożenia terrorystycznego w Unii Europejskiej? Powyższe zagadnienia zostały zaprezentowane w tekście w oparciu o formułę dziesięciu punktów. Zawarte w nich wnioski często obalają stereotypowe opinie czy wyobrażenia na temat terroryzmu w UE.
EN
Terrorism can be compared to a dangerous hydra with many different heads. They symbolize the various types of terrorism, such as Islamic, separatist, far right, far left, and so on. The diversification of the terrorist threat can be easily seen in the European Union as exemplified, for instance, in the latest report by Europol TE-SAT, European Union Terrorism Situation and Trend Report 2017, and the analysis of events in 2016 and 2017. The main purpose of this text is to answer the following questions, among others: what is the current scale of the terrorist threat in the European Union? What are the characteristics of modern terrorism in the EU? What is its specific nature and how is it evolving? What are its main ideological reasons and types? What is the scope and nature of Islamic terrorism in the European Union? What influence does immigration/refugeeism have on the level of terrorism? How are we to evaluate the current anti terrorist policy of the EU? What level of terrorist threat seems to be likely in the European Union in the months to come? These issues are discussed in this paper in the ten sections below. The conclusions presented there frequently defy stereotypical opinions and views on terrorism in the EU.
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The goal of this study is to present various aspects of so-called global terrorism and to indicate the relations that occur among them. To this end a hybrid model is applied, that approaches global terrorism as the sum total of six different elements that operate simultaneously and the direct and indirect relations operating between them. The six elements encompass the globalrange of terrorism, global fear and stereotypes that accompany terrorism, the global nature of terrorist ideas, global terrorist strategy and tactics, global consequences of terrorism and global counterterrorism activities. The gist of the concept is to emphasize that the global dimension of modern terrorism applies to its highly diversified manifestations and it should not be reduced only to the supra-regional range of operations of selected terrorist organizations, such as al-Qaeda.
PL
Celem opracowania jest ukazanie różnych aspektów tzw. globalnego terroryzmu oraz wskazanie zachodzących pomiędzy nimi interakcji. Posłużono się w tym przypadku modelem hybrydowym traktującym terroryzm globalny jako sumę składową 6 różnorodnych i występujących równocześnie elementów oraz funkcjonujących między nimi bezpośrednich lub pośrednich relacji. Do wspomnianych elementów zaliczono: globalny zakres występowania terroryzmu, globalny strach i stereotypy towarzyszące terroryzmowi, globalny charakter terrorystycznych idei, globalną strategię i taktykę terrorystów, globalne skutki terroryzmu oraz globalne przeciwdziałanie zagrożeniu terrorystycznemu. Istotą zaprezentowanej koncepcji jest podkreślenie faktu, iż globalny wymiar współczesnego terroryzmu dotyczy różnorodnych jego przejawów i nie należy sprowadzać go tylko np. do ponadregionalnego działania wybranych organizacji terrorystycznych takich, jak choćby Al-Kaida.
PL
Współczesny terroryzm ściśle związany jest z całym szeregiem różnorakich zagrożeń. Obecnie najważniejszym spośród nich jest „Państwo Islamskie” (PI). Celem tekstu jest wskazanie najważniejszych przyczyn, które doprowadziły do gwałtownego wzrostu siły oraz znaczenia „Państwa Islamskiego”. Są one sumą składową szeregu ściśle powiązanych ze sobą różnorodnych czynników. Można je podzielić na dwie główne kategorie obejmujące przyczyny endogenne związane z różnorakimi działaniami podejmowanymi przez „Państwo Islamskie” oraz źródła egzogenne obejmujące inne wydarzenia czy procesy, które także przyczyniły się do sukcesów PI. Pomimo kurczenia się wpływów „Państwo Islamskie” jeszcze długo będzie destabilizować sytuację międzynarodową i zagrażać bezpieczeństwu. Poznanie zatem źródeł jego sukcesów uznać należy za kwestę priorytetową, która może być pomocna nie tylko w pokonaniu PI, ale także uniknięciu wzrostu potęgi innych organizacji islamistycznych czy terrorystycznych w przyszłości.
EN
Terrorism today entails a wide range of diverse threats. Currently, the most dangerous such threats are posed by ‘the “Islamic State” (IS). The aim of this paper is to identify the key factors for the dramatic rise of the “Islamic State” to power and significance. Its success has been the sum total of a number of diverse and mutually linked factors. Those fall into the two categories of endogenic reasons associated with the activities undertaken by the “Islamic State” and the exogenic factors, which apply to various developments and processes which have also contributed to IS advancement. Despite the “Islamic State” s loss of influence and resources, it is bound to continue to destabilize the international scene and pose a security threat for years to come. One should therefore give priority to learning about the reasons behind its success as such knowledge may help not only defeat IS but also prevent other Islamic and terrorist organizations from rising to power in the future.
EN
The Military Status Quo on the Eurasian Chessboard
PL
The aim of the text is to present and systematize the most important reasons for the „Islamic State” dramatic rise to power and significance. The reasons are the sum total of a number of diverse and mutually linked factors. These fall into the three categories: A. effective use of hard power connected to military activities and terrorist attacks; B. appropriate use of soft power concerning financial, logistics or propaganda sphere; C. different events of processes of local or international character. These three groups of factors and their interactions result in the so-called triad of the „Islamic State” phenomenon.
PL
Unia Europejska między innymi ze względu na znaczenie polityczne, ekonomiczne czy medialne, a także z uwagi na występujące w niej różnice kulturowo-społeczne jest ważnym celem ataków terrorystycznych. Ich skalę, charakter czy specyfikę dobrze ukazują coroczne raporty Europolu. Celem tekstu jest zaprezentowanie istoty oraz charakterystyki współczesne­go terroryzmu występującego w Unii Europejskiej w ciągu ostatnich kilku lat, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem najnowszych danych zaprezentowanych przez Europol w 2018 roku. Wśród przedstawionych kwestii poruszono m.in. problem zagrożenia terrorystycznego w UE ze strony dżihadystów, separatystów czy lewicowych oraz prawicowych ekstremistów. Przeanalizowano też zagadnienie osób aresztowanych i skazanych w Unii Europejskiej za działalność terrory­styczną. Główną tezą tekstu jest stwierdzenie, że terroryzm występujący na terytorium UE ma zarówno wymiar wertykalny, horyzontalny, jak i transcendentalny. Pierwszy z nich (wertykal­ny) związany jest ze stosowaniem przez terrorystów bardzo różnych i wciąż nowych elementów taktyki czy strategii. Drugi (horyzontalny) odnosi się do możliwości atakowania różnorodnych celów w poszczególnych państwach członkowskich UE. Natomiast trzeci wymiar transcenden­talny dotyczy zróżnicowanej motywacji ideologicznej terrorystów. Ma ona nie tylko charakter islamistyczny, ale także np. separatystyczny, skrajnie prawicowy czy lewicowy.
EN
Due to the political, economic and media importance of the European Union, as well as on account of its cultural and social diversification, the EU constitutes a prominent target of terrorist attacks. The scale, character and specific nature of these attacks are well evidenced by the annual reports by Europol. This paper aims to discuss the nature and characteristics of modern terrorism in the European Union in recent years with particular emphasis given to the latest data published by Europol in 2018. The issues addressed include, among other things, the threat of terrorism in the EU posed by jihadist terrorists, separatists, and left-, and right-wing extremists. Another issue concerns individuals arrested and convicted in the EU for terrorist activity. The main proposal made in this paper is that terrorism in the EU has a vertical, horizontal and transcendent dimension. The vertical dimension is related to the extensive range of innovative tactics and strategy. The horizontal dimension refers to the potential of attacking various targets in individual EU member states. Finally, the transcendent dimension concerns the diverse ideological inspiration of terrorists, be it Islam, separatism, extreme left-, or right-wing ideology.
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The problem of terrorism can be analyzed by means of a wide array of research theories and models. There is however a question which of these may be regarded as especially useful to analyze different aspects of terrorism such as its reasons, characteristics and effects. Among concepts or theories which more or less fulfill the above-mentioned requirements, one can mention: chaos theory, decision theory, spatial competition theory, exchange theory, black box theory, theory of disaster, system model, model of billiard balls, core model, asymmetrical model, network model or concept of hybridity.
EN
Common Security and Defense Policy of the European Union (EU CSDP) has been the subject of numerous and diverse publications. However, they are largely descriptive rather than analytic, focusing on e.g. highlighting the origin of the above mentioned issue, its main stages, institutions or legal grounds. Too little attention is paid to, among others, such matters as: an attempt to systematize the constitutive elements of CSDP, depiction of the causes of problems occurring in this sector of integration, their classification or the presentation of consequences of such a state of things. These issues are considered in the present essay.
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The term ‘terrorism’ is among the most frequently used words. It accompanies us on an everyday basis. It is apparently understood in a similar manner throughout the world, but it is actually interpreted and defined in different ways. “All vogue words appear to share a similar fate: the more experiences they pretend to make transparent, the more they themselves become opaque”. Terrorism is no exception to that rule. This has become particularly apparent following the events of September 11, Bali, Madrid and London. Terrorism is characterized not only by its manifold nature and complexity but also by the problem with its definition.
EN
In contemporary Europe, there can be noted the overlapping and rivalry of the two signifi cant tendencies, which are becoming stronger and stronger. On one hand, one can notice multilevel processes of integration and conditions connected with them and that are concerned with democracy, tolerance, globalization, etc. On the other hand, one can observe disintegrative factors of various kind, which refer to actions and postures connected with chauvinism, xenophobia, neo- fascism and separatism. In the second view, especially in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), various aspects connected with nationalism seem to be of great significance. This is clearly reflected by the events which took place in, for example, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo or Macedonia.
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