International trade is based on the mutual exchange of goods and services in which one country has a comparative advantage over another. The advantage may relate to the availability of raw materials, knowledge of technologies or the lower cost of production of a certain article. The advantage of such transactions is clear. Each country acquires goods or services that are too expensive or cannot be produced in their own country. However, despite the advantages, there are also a number of obstacles to this trade. These obstacles are not only in the form of transport distances, but also customs barriers and administration. In spite of the fact that China and Europe are relatively distant from each other, they have been trading together for hundreds of years. In this time, the structure and the amount of goods and services which are traded has changed quite substantially. The aim of this article is to analyse the structure of foreign trade between China and the Czech Republic.
Příspěvek se zabývá vývojem stavebního odvětví v České republice od roku 1998 do roku 2011. Stavebnictví bývá v období krize prvním postiženým odvěvím. A naopak zlepšení výsledkù stavebních odvětví signalizuje zlepšení celého hospodářství země. Článek postihuje nejen stavebnictví v České republice jako celek, ale naopak rozkrývá i regionální rozdíly na úrovni jednotlivých krajů. Jako indikátor byl zvolen bankrotně-bonitní model - Taflerùv index. Výhodou indexu oproti např. Altmanovu indexu je, že neměří pouze sklon podniku k zániku, nebo k udržení, ale dokáže ocenit i případnou přiměřenou úroveň bonity.
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The study deals with the development of the civil engineering industry in the Czech Republic from 1998 to 2011. It should be mentioned that civil engineering is usually the first industry that is affected when it comes to an economic crises. The improvement of outcomes of the civil engineering industry on the contrary indicates the improvement of the entire economy of the country. The study doesn't asses only civil engineering in the Czech Republic in its entirety but rather reveals the regional disparities at the level of individual regions. In this issue a bankruptcy model was selected as an indicator - Tafler's index. Tafler's index has an advantage when it is compared to e.g. Altman's index, because it doesn't gauge only the inclination of the company to come to extinction or to preservation but it is able to appreciate any appropriate level of credibility of the company.
The paper deals with a first-order autoregression model with parameter estimation with exponential forgetting, known and well established in the mathematical system theory. However, the use of exponential forgetting in econometry is not a standard. Under the assumption of slow timevariability of model parameters and model stationarity, this estimation method could however lead to significant improvement of the prediction quality. In this paper, we describe the Bayesian approach to such a modelling and parameter estimation. The use of the method is demonstrated on a one-step-ahead prediction of the EUR-USD exchange rate.
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