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On Patterns in Economic Data and Monetary Councils Decisions

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Koloch G., Kozlowski W., Piekos P.
Roczniki Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych
|
2007
|
vol. 17
187-202
EN
In the paper an attempt to identify decision rules which emulate policy decisions of monetary councils (councils) in Poland, United States and Japan is presented. Policy decisions are defined as decisions concerning target interest rate changes. Generated decision rules emulate therefore monetary authorities' reaction function or policy rules. Accuracy of these rules is measured by the ratio of instances (decisions) correctly classified to the number of all instances under consideration. Generated rules are meaningful. Most of them can be interpreted in terms of stabilizing policy, which stimulates output or decelerates inflation dependent on the evolution of economic situation in the domestic economy. This is consistent with the goal of monetary policy, which is to stabilize prices and (in case of USA) output fluctuations.
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