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Sztywność płac nominalnych w modelach DSGE małej skali. Analiza empiryczna dla Polski

100%

Kuchta Z.

Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics

2014

vol. 274

issue 6

31-56

The paper examines the empirical importance of the assumption of "sticky wages" in small‑scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models estimated for the Polish economy. The evaluation is based on a Bayesian comparison between the baseline "sticky price" model and a model of price and wage rigidities. The comparison includes extensions of these models to account for the case of price and wage indexation. The analysis consists of two steps. In the first step, each model is estimated using quarterly data for the Polish economy from 1995 to 2011. In the second step, the "marginal data density" is calculated for each model and so‑called Bayes factors are obtained. The results suggest that the best fit to the sample is observed in the case of the model with wage and price rigidities. Moreover, price and wage indexation mechanisms seem to have an insignificant impact on how the model fits the data, the author says. A comparison of impulse response functions shows that there are significant differences between the baseline model and the model with sticky prices and wages. Moreover, the estimates of structural parameters were strongly affected by the introduction of wage rigidities, the author says.

Celem pracy jest empiryczna weryfikacja założenia o istnieniu sztywności płac nominalnych w modelach DSGE, estymowanych dla gospodarki polskiej. Weryfikacja ta została dokonana dzięki bayesowskiemu porównaniu modelu lepkich cen z modelem lepkich cen i płac, a także z ich rozszerzeniami na przypadek indeksacji. Podstawę porównania stanowiły kwartalne dane z lat 1995–2011, na podstawie których oszacowano każdy z analizowanych modeli. Następnie, dla każdego z nich obliczono gęstość brzegową oraz odniesiono je do siebie uzyskując czynnik Bayesa. Uzyskane wyniki dowodzą, że model lepkich płac i cen charakteryzuje się najlepszym dopasowaniem do analizowanej próby. Założenie indeksacji nie wpływało istotnie na dopasowanie modelu do danych zarówno w przypadku modelu o doskonale elastycznych, jak i lepkich płacach nominalnych. Ponadto porównanie funkcji reakcji na impuls pokazało, że model o lepkich cenach i płacach nominalnych implikuje inne, niż model lepkich cen, funkcje reakcji na impuls. Jednocześnie otrzymane oszacowania parametrów były w znacznym stopniu determinowane przez założenie sztywności nominalnej płac.

Zastosowanie modelu realnego cyklu koniunkturalnego Hansena do gospodarki Polski

63%

Kuchta Z., Piłat K.

Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics

2010

vol. 244

issue 11-12

19-39

The paper analyzes the so-called real business cycle model developed by American economist Gary D. Hansen. The model is expanded to include an indivisible labor mechanism. The aim is to check the model in terms of its accuracy in explaining business cycle fluctuations in Poland. The first part of the article discusses the assumptions and structure of the model. The authors define a state of stationary equilibrium and the final form of the model-a system of log-linearized equations. In the second part of the paper, the authors calibrate the structural parameters and conduct an empirical analysis of the Hansen model, beginning with the characteristics of the variables used in the study and the value of the model’s parameters. The model is solved and the reactions of individual variables to a technological shock are analyzed. The coefficients of correlation and the deviations of standard simulated and real variables show that the model correctly reflects the direction and strength of the relationships between the variables, the authors say. Positive correlations were obtained between all the simulated variables, in the same way as in the case of actual data. At the same time, in the case of simulated data, much higher correlations were obtained between capital and consumption and between technological changes and labor than in the case of actual data. As part of the study, an analysis was also conducted of the reactions of variables to a technological shock introduced to the model on an impulse basis. The strongest reaction to the shock was recorded in the case of labor supply and production. Moreover, in the same way as for actual data, the authors found that the fluctuations of consumption are much weaker than the fluctuations of production. This stems from the fact that households tend to smooth out consumption over time, Kuchta and Piłat say. The obtained results confirm that the dynamism of the Hansen real business cycle model, despite its simplicity, relatively accurately reflects the changes in Poland’s key macroeconomic variables.

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2 Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics

1 2014

1 2010

2 Kuchta Z.

1 Piłat K.

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Sztywność płac nominalnych w modelach DSGE małej skali. Analiza empiryczna dla Polski

Zastosowanie modelu realnego cyklu koniunkturalnego Hansena do gospodarki Polski